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As Milton takes aim at Florida, why is Tampa Bay so vulnerable to hurricanes?

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The last time the eye of a major storm like Hurricane Milton struck Tampa Bay, in 1921, the city was a sleepy backwater of a few hundred thousand people. A century later, it’s among the fastest-growing metropolises in the United States, with more than 3 million people, and highly vulnerable to flooding due to climate change. As Milton barrels toward the Gulf Coast of Florida, strengthening Monday into a Category 5 storm, experts are worried that a century of luck could come to a sudden end.

Here’s what to know:

Why is Tampa so vulnerable?

The National Hurricane Center is predicting storm surge in Tampa Bay and surrounding waters of between 8 and 12 feet (2.5 to 3 meters) above normal tide conditions, and rainfall of between 4 and 6 inches (10 to 15 centimeters) because of Hurricane Milton.

The entire Gulf Coast of Florida is especially vulnerable to storm surge. Last week, Hurricane Helene, which came ashore some 150 miles (240 kilometers) away from Tampa in the Florida Panhandle, still managed to cause drowning deaths in the Tampa area due to surges of around 5 to 8 feet (1.5 to 2.5 meters) above normal tide levels.

“Had it made landfall just little farther to the south and east, it could have been a lot, lot worse,” said Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University.

The heightened risk is partially a result of topography. The Gulf of Mexico coastline of Florida is shallow with a gentle, sloping shelf. The higher ocean floor acts as a barrier that retains the storm’s outflow of water, forcing the ocean to surge onto shore. That’s the opposite of Florida’s east coast, where the ocean floor drops suddenly a few miles from the coast.

“You can have the same storm, the same intensity, the same everything, but very different surges,” said Klotzbach.

A 2015 report from the Boston-based catastrophe modeling firm Karen Clark and Co. concluded that Tampa Bay is the most vulnerable place in the U.S. to storm surge flooding from a hurricane and stands to lose $175 billion in damage.

Are residents ready?

While Floridians are no strangers to storms, Tampa hasn’t been in the direct path of a major hurricane in over a century.

In that lapse, the area has exploded in growth. Tens of thousands of Americans moved to the area during the COVID-19 pandemic, with many choosing to settle along barrier islands near Clearwater and St. Petersburg overlooking the normally placid, emerald Gulf waters. More than 51,000 people moved to the area between 2022 and 2023, making it the fifth-largest-growing U.S. metropolitan area, according to U.S. Census data.

Longer term residents, after having experienced numerous false alarms and near misses like Irma in 2017, may be similarly unprepared for a direct hit. A local legend has it that blessings from Native Americans who once called the region home and used to build mounds to keep out invaders have largely protected the area from major storms for centuries.

MIT meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel said a hurricane in Tampa is the “black swan” worst-case scenario that experts have worried about for years.

“It’s a huge population. It’s very exposed, very inexperienced and that’s a losing proposition,” Emanuel, who has studied hurricanes for 40 years, said. “I always thought Tampa would be the city to worry about most.”

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This item has been updated to remove erroneous information about barrier island.

What about climate change?

Also lurking in the waves and wind are the effects of climate change. Rising temperatures from greenhouse gas emissions have warmed the oceans, led to sea level rise and added moisture to the air — all key factors determining a hurricane’s strength and the potential flooding it can cause.

“Due to global warming, global climate models predict hurricanes will likely cause more intense rainfall and have an increased coastal flood risk due to higher storm surge caused by rising seas,” Angela Colbert, a scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, wrote in a 2022 report.

On Monday, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Milton to a Category 5 storm after it gained 75 mph (120 kph) of intensity in the last 24 hours. One reason may be especially high water temperatures, which act like fuel for the storm.

“Milton’s rapid intensification is incredible,” University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy said in an email. “I’ve been pointing out for months, the Gulf has been and is record or near-record warm.”

The researcher noted that, due to rising sea levels brought on by climate change, Hurricane Andrew’s storm surge today would be 7 inches (17 centimeters) higher than it was when that storm pounded South Florida 30 years ago.

Are people being evacuated?

Officials in the area began issuing evacuation orders Monday for residents in six counties surrounding Tampa Bay that are home to almost 4 million people. Residents of mobile homes, RVs and manufactured homes not capable of withstanding winds of up to 110 mph (177 kph) are especially at risk.

Florida Division of Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie strongly urged people to leave coastal areas, noting people who died on barrier islands during Hurricane Ian in 2022 would still be alive if they just crossed the bridge to the mainland and found shelter.

“Please, if you’re in the Tampa Bay area, you need to evacuate. If they have called an evacuation order, I beg you, I implore you to evacuate. Drowning deaths due to storm surge are 100% preventable if you leave,” Guthrie said.

When was the last storm to hit Tampa?

Almost inexplicably, storms seem to bypass Tampa, with most Gulf disturbances passing well north of the city. The last time the Tampa area was hit by the eye of a major hurricane was Oct. 25, 1921. The hurricane had no official name but is known locally as the Tarpon Springs storm, for the seaside town where it came ashore.

The storm surge from that hurricane, estimated at Category 3 with winds of up to 129 mph (207 kph) was pegged at 11 feet (3.3 meters). At least eight people died, and damage was estimated at $5 million at the time.

Now, the tourist-friendly area known for its sandy white beaches has grown by leaps and bound, with an economy estimated to be worth nearly $200 billion. Hurricane Milton threatens to wash away all of that development.

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AP Writers Joshua Goodman in Miami and Seth Borenstein in Washington contributed to this report.



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N.S. legal scholar’s book describes ‘mainstream’ porn’s rise, and the price women pay

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HALIFAX – When legal scholar Elaine Craig started researching pornography, she knew little about websites such as Pornhub or xHamster — and she did not anticipate that the harsh scenes she would view would at times force her to step away.

Four years later, the Dalhousie University law professor has published a book that portrays in graphic detail the rise of ubiquitous free porn, concluding it is causing harm to the “sexual integrity” of girls, women and the community at large.

The 386-page volume, titled “Mainstreaming Porn” (McGill-Queen’s University Press), begins by outlining how porn-streaming firms claim to create “safe spaces” for adults to view “consensual, perfectly legal sex,” as their moderators — both automated and human — keep depictions of illegal acts off the sites.

But as the 49-year-old professor worked through the topic, she came to question these claims. Depictions of sex that find their way onto the platforms are far from benign, she says.

“Representations of sex in mainstream porn … that weaponize sex against women and girls, that represent it as a tactic to be deployed against unconscious women or unsuspecting ‘daughters’ when their mothers are not home … do not promote sexual integrity and human flourishing,” she writes in her closing chapter.

Joanna Birenbaum, a Toronto-based lawyer who has worked with sexual assault victims for 20 years, said in a recent email that Craig’s work is the first to “really make the connection between porn, its impact on women and girls … and the ways in which it has evolved to become part of the tech industry.”

“It is eye-opening because it is so frank and concrete … for those who are unaware of what can be found on these mainstream platforms.”

For example, Canadian criminal law is clear that when a person is asleep, they lack the capacity for sexual consent. But Craig’s online searches of porn platforms found “countless videos” depicting the perpetration of sexual assault on “sleeping or unconscious women.” The difference in the pseudo-reality of porn was the women were almost always depicted as pleased and accepting.

Meanwhile, the book finds that “incest-based” porn — and the associated “tags” designed to draw viewers — are “as prolific as they are popular.” Craig said during an interview at her campus office that she believes a subset of this category, showing male family members having sex with female performers depicted as girls, meets the definition of child pornography.

Then there are the depictions of the surreptitious filming of sex without the knowledge of those being recorded, “another relatively common phenomenon on porn-streaming platforms,” she writes. In her closing chapters, she urges all provinces to pass laws to allow rapid removal of such material from sites.

For Craig, a mother of two boys, her journey into this world was draining. After writing the chapter on incest-themed porn, she had to take three months away from the project. “I found it challenging to watch some of it,” she said.

In her book, Craig notes how last year, after a judge sentenced an Ottawa man to seven years in prison for posting secret sex videos, a vice-president with Ethical Capital Partners — which owns Pornhub’s parent Aylo — said the site no longer allows individuals to search for videos under the tag, “hidden camera.”

But when Craig checked she found that, while the term “hidden camera” yielded no videos on Pornhub, using just the term “hidden” did produce results. Titles on the first page of her search results included, “Dragged a sexy classmate into bed and filmed sex on a hidden phone.” Other categories including “secret voyeur,” “real amateur hidden” and “spy” also yielded videos.

A Pornhub spokesman said in an emailed statement this week that the company has a list of more than 35,000 banned keywords and millions of permutations “that prevent users from trying to search for words that may violate our terms of service.” He said the list is “constantly evolving, with new words regularly added in multiple languages.”

In her closing chapters, Craig questions whether using criminal law to go after the producers and possessors of the porn she considers illegal will be effective. Instead she prefers a human rights approach that identifies “hateful” porn and monitors remedies over time.

Her research found that certain graphic slurs directed at women yielded links to hundreds of videos last year on Pornhub, and Craig argues these expressions can be seen as part of a “taxonomy of misogyny and racism” that the sites are building.

She argues for federal legislation to prohibit streaming companies from promoting videos with titles, tags and categories that meet the definition of hate speech — “vilification and detestation on the basis of sex or race, for example.”

The author notes that the Online Harms Act — currently before Parliament — would create a digital safety commission and impose a “duty of responsibility” on porn sites to prevent harmful content toward children. However, Craig calls for the same approach to be applied to “the unique harms” the streaming platforms are creating for women.

Craig argues against an “absolutist” ban on porn, making the case that this is unrealistic, but she calls for a landscape where “sex should not be mean” and where parents and schools start to educate teenagers about the harmful forms of sexuality they may encounter on the free platforms.

“Mainstream porn-streaming platforms should be held more responsible for preventing these harms and for bearing their costs when they fail,” she writes.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.



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Trump’s appointees have criticized Trudeau, warned of border issues with Canada

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WASHINGTON – Donald Trump’s second administration is filling up with some of his most loyal supporters and many of the people landing top jobs have been critical of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and security at Canada’s border.

One expert says there are not many Canadian allies, so far, in the president-elect’s court.

“I don’t see a whole lot of friends of Canada in there,” said Fen Hampson, a professor of international affairs at Carleton University in Ottawa and co-chair of the Expert Group on Canada-U.S. Relations.

As the Republican leader starts making crucial decisions about his administration, designations for foreign policy and border positions have sent signals to Canada, and the rest of the world, about America’s path forward.

Trump campaigned on imposing a minimum 10 per cent across-the-board import tariff. A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report suggests that would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

The president-elect is also critical of giving aid to Ukraine in its war against Russian aggression and has attacked the United Nations, both things the Liberal government in Canada strongly backs.

Trump tapped Mike Waltz to be national security adviser amid increasing geopolitical instability, saying in a statement Tuesday that Waltz “will be a tremendous champion of our pursuit of Peace through Strength!”

Waltz, a three-term congressman from Florida, has repeatedly slammed Trudeau on social media, particularly for his handling of issues related to China.

He also recently weighed in on the looming Canadian election, posting on X that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre was going to “send Trudeau packing in 2025” and “start digging Canada out of the progressive mess it’s in.”

Like Trump, Waltz has been critical of NATO members that don’t meet defence spending targets — something Canada is not doing, and won’t do for years.

Trudeau promised to meet the target of spending the equivalent of two per cent of GDP on defence by 2032.

Immigration and border security were a key focus for Republicans during the election and numerous key appointees have their eyes to the north.

It’s been reported that Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, a vocal critic of China, is expected to be named Secretary of State.

Rubio has pointed to concerns at the Canada-U.S. border. He recently blasted Canada’s move to accept Palestinian refugees, claiming “terrorists and known criminals continue to stream across U.S. land borders, including from Canada.”

Trump’s choice for ambassador to the United Nations, New York Congresswoman Elise Stefanik, has also focused on the border with Canada.

Stefanik, as a member of the Northern Border Security Caucus, called for Homeland Security to secure the border, claiming there had been an increase in human and drug trafficking.

“We must protect our children from these dangerous illegal immigrants who are pouring across our northern border in record numbers,” she posted on X last month.

Stefanik has little foreign policy experience, but Trump described her as a “smart America First fighter.” She repeatedly denounced the UN, saying the international organization is antisemitic for its criticism of Israel’s bombardment of Gaza.

U.S. media reports say longtime Trump loyalist Kristi Noem, South Dakota’s governor, has been chosen to run Homeland Security. She was on the shortlist to be vice-president until controversy erupted over an anecdote in her book about shooting a dog.

“She doesn’t seem to have very warm feelings (toward Canada),” Hampson said

Last year, she claimed to be having conversations with a Canadian family-owned business looking to relocate to her state because of COVID-19 pandemic restrictions.

But Noem has also said that the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, negotiated under the first Trump administration, was “a major win.”

The trilateral agreement is up for review in 2026.

Robert Lighthizer, Trump’s former trade representative , has been an informal adviser for the president-elect’s transition and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said they remain in contact.

He has been touted by analysts as an option for several jobs in Trump’s second administration, including a return to the trade file, though Hampson said he is unlikely to go back to the trade representative role.

Hampson said there are still significant questions about how sweeping the tariffs could be and if there will be carve-outs for industries like energy. Trump and his team may also hang the tariff threat over upcoming trade negotiations.

“Is he going to stick us with a tariff Day 1 or shortly after?” Hampson asked.

Some experts have called for Canada to remain calm and focus on opportunities rather than fears. Others have called for bold action and creative thinking.

Canada revived a cabinet committee on Canada-U.S. relations a little more than 24 hours after Trump’s win was secured.

Trudeau said Tuesday in Fredericton that under the first Trump presidency, Canada successfully negotiated the trilateral trade deal by demonstrating that the country’s interests and economies are aligned.

“That is going to continue to be the case,” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.



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Toronto Sceptres open camp ahead of second PWHL season |

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The Toronto Sceptres have opened training camp for the upcoming PWHL season, with a new logo, new colours, new jerseys and a new primary venue in Coca-Cola Coliseum. The team has a lot to look ahead to after a busy off-season and successful inaugural campaign. (Nov. 12, 2024)



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