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As more provinces, countries share coronavirus scenarios, Trudeau tells Canadians: wait – Global News

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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing renewed pressure to share government modelling on the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the coronavirus pandemic.

He has repeatedly declined to share modelling of potential outcomes with Canadians even while warning that social distancing rules could last months.

But on Thursday, he said some more information will be coming “soon” even as he insisted that sharing modelling would not be useful.

“You want to see the numbers and the predictions … you want to plan. You want to prepare for the worst, you want to know what to be hopeful about,” Trudeau said during a press conference with journalists outside Rideau Cottage on Thursday.

“I know and we’ll have more information coming to you soon.”

READ MORE: Without global action against coronavirus pandemic, 40 million could have died

Countries around the world have started to offer their grim vision for how the disease could play out.

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In the United States, officials said Tuesday there could be between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths in that country as a result of COVID-19, with 200,000 expected even “if we do things almost perfectly.”

New Zealand published a government-commissioned model to design its “plan for” scenario, where 65 per cent of the public becomes infected, 336,000 people require hospitalization and between 12,600 and 33,600 to die.

And a report by Reuters on Thursday cited a U.K. official as saying that country’s worst-case scenario was 50,000 deaths, but cautioning that isn’t being viewed as likely right now.

READ MORE: Comparing coronavirus responses — What did Canada and the U.S. do differently?

Among the voices in Canada urging the government to share more is former federal health minister Jane Philpott, whom Trudeau kicked out of the Liberal caucus last year after she raised concerns about his handling of the SNC-Lavalin scandal.

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Philpott tweeted on Thursday that the time is now for what she called “radical transparency.”

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Trudeau was pressed Thursday by journalists on what the modelling says, why it isn’t being shared, whether sharing it could encourage people to take the virus more seriously, and when it could be shared. Trudeau replied:

“I think people can imagine a range of scenarios.”

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“There is a range out there and just highlighting that range is not as useful or important as being able to get clearer numbers and analysis of what we are likely to face. But everything we are going to face will be directly linked to how people behave today.”

Some provinces, though, have started or are planning to release their projections for how COVID-19 could affect and in some cases overwhelm Canada’s health care systems.

British Columbia released its modelling roughly one week ago. It included both a best-case scenario based on the spread of the virus in South Korea along with a worst-case scenario model based on the crisis in Italy.






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B.C. health officials release medical models of worst-case coronavirus scenarios


B.C. health officials release medical models of worst-case coronavirus scenarios

Those models laid out both projected cases if no control measures were in place, current projects and growth rates of infections, as well as the predictions for the potential shortage of hospital beds.

READ MORE: 77 Alberta health-care workers infected with new coronavirus

Ontario Premier Doug Ford also vowed on Thursday to release projections on Friday.

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“You deserve to see the same data that I see, you deserve to know what I know,” he said during a briefing with media on the state of the virus in the province.

A spokesperson for Alberta Health also said that province plans to do the same.

“Alberta will be releasing modelling data in the coming days. An exact release date has not yet been set,” said Tom McMillan, spokesperson for Alberta Health.

“We will be using the latest data from around the world, in Canada and in Alberta to help anticipate what the next couple months of COVID-19 could look like in our province.”

A leaked report of the potential forecast in Saskatchewan was also obtained by Global News last week, and that shows the government there views 15,000 deaths as the worst-case scenario.

READ MORE: Leaked SHA document shows worst-case scenario outcome of coronavirus in Saskatchewan

Ford has said previously that his government was hesitant to release any data or modelling on the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, fearing it could cause “panic.”

“Those models can drastically change. If we underestimate on one side and we overestimate on the other, it could create a panic if we overestimate,” Ford told reporters Wednesday at Queen’s Park.

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“Our message is very clear. We are going through some turbulent waters over the next few weeks and we need to do everything we can to make sure that people self-isolate.”

Quebec’s Health Ministry also told Global News it would not release its modelling or projections.

“Based on the statistics currently available, it is possible to make certain extrapolations over time in order to estimate the needs that the network and the [Quebec] might have,” a spokesperson said in an email, adding that the different scenarios are produced by the General Directorate of Public Health.

“However, all of these internal tools used as working documents are confidential and intended for government authorities.”

Canada has now more than 10,100 confirmed cases on Thursday and at least 127 deaths. The provinces of Ontario, British Columbia and Quebec have the highest numbers of COVID-19 cases.

Ontario announced 401 more cases on April 2, bringing its total to almost 2,800 and 53 deaths.

Global News has reached out to representatives from all provinces, asking whether or when they plan to release modelling of their forecasts.

This story will be updated with additional responses as they come in.

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N.S. legal scholar’s book describes ‘mainstream’ porn’s rise, and the price women pay

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HALIFAX – When legal scholar Elaine Craig started researching pornography, she knew little about websites such as Pornhub or xHamster — and she did not anticipate that the harsh scenes she would view would at times force her to step away.

Four years later, the Dalhousie University law professor has published a book that portrays in graphic detail the rise of ubiquitous free porn, concluding it is causing harm to the “sexual integrity” of girls, women and the community at large.

The 386-page volume, titled “Mainstreaming Porn” (McGill-Queen’s University Press), begins by outlining how porn-streaming firms claim to create “safe spaces” for adults to view “consensual, perfectly legal sex,” as their moderators — both automated and human — keep depictions of illegal acts off the sites.

But as the 49-year-old professor worked through the topic, she came to question these claims. Depictions of sex that find their way onto the platforms are far from benign, she says.

“Representations of sex in mainstream porn … that weaponize sex against women and girls, that represent it as a tactic to be deployed against unconscious women or unsuspecting ‘daughters’ when their mothers are not home … do not promote sexual integrity and human flourishing,” she writes in her closing chapter.

Joanna Birenbaum, a Toronto-based lawyer who has worked with sexual assault victims for 20 years, said in a recent email that Craig’s work is the first to “really make the connection between porn, its impact on women and girls … and the ways in which it has evolved to become part of the tech industry.”

“It is eye-opening because it is so frank and concrete … for those who are unaware of what can be found on these mainstream platforms.”

For example, Canadian criminal law is clear that when a person is asleep, they lack the capacity for sexual consent. But Craig’s online searches of porn platforms found “countless videos” depicting the perpetration of sexual assault on “sleeping or unconscious women.” The difference in the pseudo-reality of porn was the women were almost always depicted as pleased and accepting.

Meanwhile, the book finds that “incest-based” porn — and the associated “tags” designed to draw viewers — are “as prolific as they are popular.” Craig said during an interview at her campus office that she believes a subset of this category, showing male family members having sex with female performers depicted as girls, meets the definition of child pornography.

Then there are the depictions of the surreptitious filming of sex without the knowledge of those being recorded, “another relatively common phenomenon on porn-streaming platforms,” she writes. In her closing chapters, she urges all provinces to pass laws to allow rapid removal of such material from sites.

For Craig, a mother of two boys, her journey into this world was draining. After writing the chapter on incest-themed porn, she had to take three months away from the project. “I found it challenging to watch some of it,” she said.

In her book, Craig notes how last year, after a judge sentenced an Ottawa man to seven years in prison for posting secret sex videos, a vice-president with Ethical Capital Partners — which owns Pornhub’s parent Aylo — said the site no longer allows individuals to search for videos under the tag, “hidden camera.”

But when Craig checked she found that, while the term “hidden camera” yielded no videos on Pornhub, using just the term “hidden” did produce results. Titles on the first page of her search results included, “Dragged a sexy classmate into bed and filmed sex on a hidden phone.” Other categories including “secret voyeur,” “real amateur hidden” and “spy” also yielded videos.

A Pornhub spokesman said in an emailed statement this week that the company has a list of more than 35,000 banned keywords and millions of permutations “that prevent users from trying to search for words that may violate our terms of service.” He said the list is “constantly evolving, with new words regularly added in multiple languages.”

In her closing chapters, Craig questions whether using criminal law to go after the producers and possessors of the porn she considers illegal will be effective. Instead she prefers a human rights approach that identifies “hateful” porn and monitors remedies over time.

Her research found that certain graphic slurs directed at women yielded links to hundreds of videos last year on Pornhub, and Craig argues these expressions can be seen as part of a “taxonomy of misogyny and racism” that the sites are building.

She argues for federal legislation to prohibit streaming companies from promoting videos with titles, tags and categories that meet the definition of hate speech — “vilification and detestation on the basis of sex or race, for example.”

The author notes that the Online Harms Act — currently before Parliament — would create a digital safety commission and impose a “duty of responsibility” on porn sites to prevent harmful content toward children. However, Craig calls for the same approach to be applied to “the unique harms” the streaming platforms are creating for women.

Craig argues against an “absolutist” ban on porn, making the case that this is unrealistic, but she calls for a landscape where “sex should not be mean” and where parents and schools start to educate teenagers about the harmful forms of sexuality they may encounter on the free platforms.

“Mainstream porn-streaming platforms should be held more responsible for preventing these harms and for bearing their costs when they fail,” she writes.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.



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Trump’s appointees have criticized Trudeau, warned of border issues with Canada

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WASHINGTON – Donald Trump’s second administration is filling up with some of his most loyal supporters and many of the people landing top jobs have been critical of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and security at Canada’s border.

One expert says there are not many Canadian allies, so far, in the president-elect’s court.

“I don’t see a whole lot of friends of Canada in there,” said Fen Hampson, a professor of international affairs at Carleton University in Ottawa and co-chair of the Expert Group on Canada-U.S. Relations.

As the Republican leader starts making crucial decisions about his administration, designations for foreign policy and border positions have sent signals to Canada, and the rest of the world, about America’s path forward.

Trump campaigned on imposing a minimum 10 per cent across-the-board import tariff. A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report suggests that would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

The president-elect is also critical of giving aid to Ukraine in its war against Russian aggression and has attacked the United Nations, both things the Liberal government in Canada strongly backs.

Trump tapped Mike Waltz to be national security adviser amid increasing geopolitical instability, saying in a statement Tuesday that Waltz “will be a tremendous champion of our pursuit of Peace through Strength!”

Waltz, a three-term congressman from Florida, has repeatedly slammed Trudeau on social media, particularly for his handling of issues related to China.

He also recently weighed in on the looming Canadian election, posting on X that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre was going to “send Trudeau packing in 2025” and “start digging Canada out of the progressive mess it’s in.”

Like Trump, Waltz has been critical of NATO members that don’t meet defence spending targets — something Canada is not doing, and won’t do for years.

Trudeau promised to meet the target of spending the equivalent of two per cent of GDP on defence by 2032.

Immigration and border security were a key focus for Republicans during the election and numerous key appointees have their eyes to the north.

It’s been reported that Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, a vocal critic of China, is expected to be named Secretary of State.

Rubio has pointed to concerns at the Canada-U.S. border. He recently blasted Canada’s move to accept Palestinian refugees, claiming “terrorists and known criminals continue to stream across U.S. land borders, including from Canada.”

Trump’s choice for ambassador to the United Nations, New York Congresswoman Elise Stefanik, has also focused on the border with Canada.

Stefanik, as a member of the Northern Border Security Caucus, called for Homeland Security to secure the border, claiming there had been an increase in human and drug trafficking.

“We must protect our children from these dangerous illegal immigrants who are pouring across our northern border in record numbers,” she posted on X last month.

Stefanik has little foreign policy experience, but Trump described her as a “smart America First fighter.” She repeatedly denounced the UN, saying the international organization is antisemitic for its criticism of Israel’s bombardment of Gaza.

U.S. media reports say longtime Trump loyalist Kristi Noem, South Dakota’s governor, has been chosen to run Homeland Security. She was on the shortlist to be vice-president until controversy erupted over an anecdote in her book about shooting a dog.

“She doesn’t seem to have very warm feelings (toward Canada),” Hampson said

Last year, she claimed to be having conversations with a Canadian family-owned business looking to relocate to her state because of COVID-19 pandemic restrictions.

But Noem has also said that the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, negotiated under the first Trump administration, was “a major win.”

The trilateral agreement is up for review in 2026.

Robert Lighthizer, Trump’s former trade representative , has been an informal adviser for the president-elect’s transition and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said they remain in contact.

He has been touted by analysts as an option for several jobs in Trump’s second administration, including a return to the trade file, though Hampson said he is unlikely to go back to the trade representative role.

Hampson said there are still significant questions about how sweeping the tariffs could be and if there will be carve-outs for industries like energy. Trump and his team may also hang the tariff threat over upcoming trade negotiations.

“Is he going to stick us with a tariff Day 1 or shortly after?” Hampson asked.

Some experts have called for Canada to remain calm and focus on opportunities rather than fears. Others have called for bold action and creative thinking.

Canada revived a cabinet committee on Canada-U.S. relations a little more than 24 hours after Trump’s win was secured.

Trudeau said Tuesday in Fredericton that under the first Trump presidency, Canada successfully negotiated the trilateral trade deal by demonstrating that the country’s interests and economies are aligned.

“That is going to continue to be the case,” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.



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Toronto Sceptres open camp ahead of second PWHL season |

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The Toronto Sceptres have opened training camp for the upcoming PWHL season, with a new logo, new colours, new jerseys and a new primary venue in Coca-Cola Coliseum. The team has a lot to look ahead to after a busy off-season and successful inaugural campaign. (Nov. 12, 2024)



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