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As more provinces, countries share coronavirus scenarios, Trudeau tells Canadians: wait – Global News

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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing renewed pressure to share government modelling on the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the coronavirus pandemic.

He has repeatedly declined to share modelling of potential outcomes with Canadians even while warning that social distancing rules could last months.

But on Thursday, he said some more information will be coming “soon” even as he insisted that sharing modelling would not be useful.

“You want to see the numbers and the predictions … you want to plan. You want to prepare for the worst, you want to know what to be hopeful about,” Trudeau said during a press conference with journalists outside Rideau Cottage on Thursday.

“I know and we’ll have more information coming to you soon.”

READ MORE: Without global action against coronavirus pandemic, 40 million could have died

Countries around the world have started to offer their grim vision for how the disease could play out.

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In the United States, officials said Tuesday there could be between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths in that country as a result of COVID-19, with 200,000 expected even “if we do things almost perfectly.”

New Zealand published a government-commissioned model to design its “plan for” scenario, where 65 per cent of the public becomes infected, 336,000 people require hospitalization and between 12,600 and 33,600 to die.

And a report by Reuters on Thursday cited a U.K. official as saying that country’s worst-case scenario was 50,000 deaths, but cautioning that isn’t being viewed as likely right now.

READ MORE: Comparing coronavirus responses — What did Canada and the U.S. do differently?

Among the voices in Canada urging the government to share more is former federal health minister Jane Philpott, whom Trudeau kicked out of the Liberal caucus last year after she raised concerns about his handling of the SNC-Lavalin scandal.

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Philpott tweeted on Thursday that the time is now for what she called “radical transparency.”

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Trudeau was pressed Thursday by journalists on what the modelling says, why it isn’t being shared, whether sharing it could encourage people to take the virus more seriously, and when it could be shared. Trudeau replied:

“I think people can imagine a range of scenarios.”

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“There is a range out there and just highlighting that range is not as useful or important as being able to get clearer numbers and analysis of what we are likely to face. But everything we are going to face will be directly linked to how people behave today.”

Some provinces, though, have started or are planning to release their projections for how COVID-19 could affect and in some cases overwhelm Canada’s health care systems.

British Columbia released its modelling roughly one week ago. It included both a best-case scenario based on the spread of the virus in South Korea along with a worst-case scenario model based on the crisis in Italy.






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B.C. health officials release medical models of worst-case coronavirus scenarios


B.C. health officials release medical models of worst-case coronavirus scenarios

Those models laid out both projected cases if no control measures were in place, current projects and growth rates of infections, as well as the predictions for the potential shortage of hospital beds.

READ MORE: 77 Alberta health-care workers infected with new coronavirus

Ontario Premier Doug Ford also vowed on Thursday to release projections on Friday.

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“You deserve to see the same data that I see, you deserve to know what I know,” he said during a briefing with media on the state of the virus in the province.

A spokesperson for Alberta Health also said that province plans to do the same.

“Alberta will be releasing modelling data in the coming days. An exact release date has not yet been set,” said Tom McMillan, spokesperson for Alberta Health.

“We will be using the latest data from around the world, in Canada and in Alberta to help anticipate what the next couple months of COVID-19 could look like in our province.”

A leaked report of the potential forecast in Saskatchewan was also obtained by Global News last week, and that shows the government there views 15,000 deaths as the worst-case scenario.

READ MORE: Leaked SHA document shows worst-case scenario outcome of coronavirus in Saskatchewan

Ford has said previously that his government was hesitant to release any data or modelling on the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, fearing it could cause “panic.”

“Those models can drastically change. If we underestimate on one side and we overestimate on the other, it could create a panic if we overestimate,” Ford told reporters Wednesday at Queen’s Park.

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“Our message is very clear. We are going through some turbulent waters over the next few weeks and we need to do everything we can to make sure that people self-isolate.”

Quebec’s Health Ministry also told Global News it would not release its modelling or projections.

“Based on the statistics currently available, it is possible to make certain extrapolations over time in order to estimate the needs that the network and the [Quebec] might have,” a spokesperson said in an email, adding that the different scenarios are produced by the General Directorate of Public Health.

“However, all of these internal tools used as working documents are confidential and intended for government authorities.”

Canada has now more than 10,100 confirmed cases on Thursday and at least 127 deaths. The provinces of Ontario, British Columbia and Quebec have the highest numbers of COVID-19 cases.

Ontario announced 401 more cases on April 2, bringing its total to almost 2,800 and 53 deaths.

Global News has reached out to representatives from all provinces, asking whether or when they plan to release modelling of their forecasts.

This story will be updated with additional responses as they come in.

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With grief lingering, Blue Jackets GM Waddell places focus on hockey in wake of Gaudreau’s death

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BUFFALO, N.Y. (AP) — Hearing the familiar sounds of clacking sticks and pucks banging off the boards and glass while watching Columbus Blue Jackets prospects from the stands of a cold rink on a warm late-summer afternoon was not enough to wash away the lingering residuals of grief for Don Waddell on Saturday.

That, the Blue Jackets’ general manager acknowledged, will take more time than anyone can guess — weeks, months, perhaps an entire season and beyond.

What mattered is how spending the weekend attending the Sabres Prospects Challenge represented a start to what Waddell called among the first steps in refocusing on hockey and the future in the aftermath of the deaths of Columbus star Johnny Gaudreau and his brother, Matthew, who were struck by a suspected drunken driver while riding bicycles on Aug 29.

“We got to play hockey,” Waddell said. “We’re not going to forget about Johnny and his family, the Gaudreau family.”

He then reflected on the speech Johnny Gaudreau’s wife, Meredith, made during the brothers’ funeral on Monday, by urging those in mourning to move forward as she will while focusing on raising their children.

“Everybody knows that Johnny wants them to play hockey,” Waddell said. “And everybody’s rallying around that.”

The resumption of hockey in Columbus began last week, when most Blue Jackets players returned to their facility to be together and lean on each other at the urging of Waddell and team captain Boone Jenner. And it will continue on Thursday, when the team opens training camp, exactly three weeks since the Gaudreaus were killed.

“Tragic. Senseless. But now we got to focus on trying to get our team ready to play hockey this year,” Waddell said. “We all mourn and heal differently, but I think as a team being together like that is going to be critical for them to get moving forward.”

Tragedy is no stranger to Waddell or the Blue Jackets.

Waddell was general manager of the then-Atlanta Thrashers in 2003 when Dany Heatley lost control of his car and struck a wall, with the crash killing passenger and teammate Dan Snyder. In 2021, Blue Jackets goalie Matiss Kivlenieks died during a July Fourth fireworks accident.

Waddell placed the emphasis on himself and coach Dean Evason — both newcomers to Columbus this offseason — to guide the team through what will be an emotional season.

“Now, do I think there’s going to be some dark days? I won’t be surprised,” Waddell said.

Reminders of the Gaudreaus’ deaths remain apparent, and reflected in Buffalo on Friday night. A moment of silence was held in tribute to the brothers before the opening faceoff of a game between the Blue Jackets and Sabres.

Afterward, Columbus prospect Gavin Brindley recalled the times he spent with Johnny Gaudreau in Columbus and as teammates representing the United States at the world hockey championships in the Czech Republic in May.

“He was one of the biggest mentors for me at the world championships,” Brindley said. “I couldn’t tell you how many times we hung out with Meredith, pictures on my phone. It’s just so hard to look back and see that kind of stuff.”

The NHL and NHL Players’ Association are providing the Blue Jackets help in the form of grief counseling, crowd security at vigils and addressing hockey issues, such as potentially altering the league’s salary cap rules to provide Columbus relief from having to reach the NHL minimum payroll because of the void left by Gaudreau’s contract.

“The Blue Jackets, I don’t think anybody’s focused from an organizational standpoint, from a hockey standpoint as to what comes next, because I think everybody’s still in shock,” NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman told The Associated Press last week. “I don’t think anybody’s focused right now other than on the grieving part, which is understandable.”

Much of the burden has fallen to Waddell, who has been in discussions with the NHL and the NHLPA and dealing with outreach programs with the Blue Jackets’ partner OhioHealth, while also overseeing preparations for training camp and gauging his prospects in Buffalo.

There’s also his roster to attend to, which he said has two openings at forward, one involving Justin Danforth, who may miss the start of the season because of a wrist injury. Waddell didn’t have to mention the second opening.

Tiring and emotional as it’s been, Waddell found comfort being in his element, a rink, and looking ahead to the start of training camp.

“The guys are in really good shape. We’ve done a lot of testing already and they’re eager to get going,” Waddell said. “We have a reason to play for. And we’ll make the best of it.”

The Blue Jackets later Sunday signed veteran winger James van Riemsdyk to a one-year contract worth $900,000.

“James van Riemsdyk has been a very consistent, productive player throughout his career,” Waddell said. “Bringing him to Columbus will not only provide depth to our group up front, but also valuable leadership and another veteran presence in our dressing room.”

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AP Hockey Writer Stephen Whyno in New York contributed to this report.

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PSG says defender Nuno Mendes target of racial abuse after a French league game

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PARIS (AP) — Paris Saint-Germain defender Nuno Mendes was the target of abusive and racist comments on social media after a French league game.

The club condemned the abuse and expressed its “full support” Sunday for the Portugal left back, who was targeted following PSG’s 3-1 win against Brest on Saturday.

Mendes, who is Black, shared on his Instagram account a racist message he received.

During the match, Mendes brought down Ludovic Ajorque in the box for a penalty that Romain Del Castillo converted to give Brest the lead.

“Paris Saint-Germain doesn’t tolerate racism, antisemitism or any other form of discrimination,” the club said. “The racial insults directed at Nuno Mendes are totally unacceptable … we are working with the relevant authorities and associations to ensure those responsible are held accountable for their actions.”

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Slovenia’s Tadej Pogacar wins Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal

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MONTREAL – Tadej Pogacar was so dominant on Sunday, Canada’s Michael Woods called it a race for second.

Pogacar, a three-time Tour de France champion from Slovenia, pedalled to a resounding victory at the Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal.

The UAE Team Emirates leader crossed the finish line 24 seconds ahead of Spain’s Pello Bilbao of Bahrain — Victorious to win the demanding 209.1-kilometre race on a sunny, 28 C day in Montreal. France’s Julian Alaphilippe of Soudal Quick-Step was third.

“He’s the greatest rider of all time, he’s a formidable opponent,” said Woods, who finished 45 seconds behind the leader in eighth. “If you’re not at your very, very best, then you can forget racing with him, and today was kind of representative of that.

“He’s at such a different level that if you follow him, it can be lights out.”

Pogacar slowed down before the last turn to celebrate with the crowd, high-five fans on Avenue du Parc and cruise past the finish line with his arms in the air after more than five hours on the bike.

The 25-year-old joined Belgium’s Greg Van Avermaet as the only multi-time winners in Montreal after claiming the race in 2022. He also redeemed a seventh-place finish at the Quebec City Grand Prix on Friday.

“I was disappointed, because I had such good legs that I didn’t do better than seventh,” Pogacar said. “To bounce back after seventh to victory here, it’s just an incredible feeling.”

It’s Pogacar’s latest win in a dominant year that includes victories at the Tour de France and Giro d’Italia.

Ottawa’s Woods (Israel Premier-Tech) tied a career-best in front of the home crowd in Montreal, but hoped for more after claiming a stage at the Spanish Vuelta two weeks ago.

“I wanted a better result,” the 37-year-old rider said. “My goal was a podium, but at the same time I’m happy with the performance. In bike racing, you can’t always get the result you want and I felt like I raced really well, I animated the race, I felt like I was up there.”

Pogacar completed the 17 climbs up and down Mount Royal near downtown in five hours 28 minutes 15 seconds.

He made his move with 23.3 kilometres to go, leaving the peloton in his dust as he pedalled into the lead — one he never relinquished.

Bilbao, Alaphilippe, Alex Aranburu (Movistar Team) and Bart Lemmen (Visma–Lease) chased in a group behind him, with Bilbao ultimately separating himself from the pack. But he never came close to catching Pogacar, who built a 35-second lead with one lap left to go.

“It was still a really hard race today, but the team was on point,” Pogacar said. “We did really how we planned, and the race situation was good for us. We make it hard in the last final laps, and they set me up for a (takeover) two laps to go, and it was all perfect.”

Ottawa’s Derek Gee, who placed ninth in this year’s Tour de France, finished 48th in Montreal, and called it a “hard day” in the heat.

“I think everyone knows when you see Tadej on the start line that it’s just going to be full gas,” Gee said.

Israel Premier-Tech teammate Hugo Houle of Sainte-Perpétue, Que., was 51st.

Houle said he heard Pogacar inform his teammates on the radio that he was ready to attack with two laps left in the race.

“I said then, well, clearly it’s over for me,” Houle said. “You see, cycling isn’t that complicated.”

Australia’s Michael Matthews won the Quebec City GP for a record third time on Friday, but did not finish in Montreal. The two races are the only North American events on the UCI World Tour.

Michael Leonard of Oakville, Ont., and Gil Gelders and Dries De Bondt of Belgium broke away from the peloton during the second lap. Leonard led the majority of the race before losing pace with 45 kilometres to go.

Only 89 of 169 riders from 24 teams — including the Canadian national team — completed the gruelling race that features 4,573 metres in total altitude.

Next up, the riders will head to the world championships in Zurich, Switzerland from Sept. 21 to 29.

Pogacar will try to join Eddy Merckx (1974) and Stephen Roche (1987) as the only men to win three major titles in a season — known as the Triple Crown.

“Today gave me a lot of confidence, motivation,” Pogacar said. “I think we are ready for world championships.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 15, 2024.



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