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As more provinces, countries share coronavirus scenarios, Trudeau tells Canadians: wait – Global News

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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing renewed pressure to share government modelling on the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the coronavirus pandemic.

He has repeatedly declined to share modelling of potential outcomes with Canadians even while warning that social distancing rules could last months.

But on Thursday, he said some more information will be coming “soon” even as he insisted that sharing modelling would not be useful.

“You want to see the numbers and the predictions … you want to plan. You want to prepare for the worst, you want to know what to be hopeful about,” Trudeau said during a press conference with journalists outside Rideau Cottage on Thursday.

“I know and we’ll have more information coming to you soon.”

READ MORE: Without global action against coronavirus pandemic, 40 million could have died

Countries around the world have started to offer their grim vision for how the disease could play out.

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In the United States, officials said Tuesday there could be between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths in that country as a result of COVID-19, with 200,000 expected even “if we do things almost perfectly.”

New Zealand published a government-commissioned model to design its “plan for” scenario, where 65 per cent of the public becomes infected, 336,000 people require hospitalization and between 12,600 and 33,600 to die.

And a report by Reuters on Thursday cited a U.K. official as saying that country’s worst-case scenario was 50,000 deaths, but cautioning that isn’t being viewed as likely right now.

READ MORE: Comparing coronavirus responses — What did Canada and the U.S. do differently?

Among the voices in Canada urging the government to share more is former federal health minister Jane Philpott, whom Trudeau kicked out of the Liberal caucus last year after she raised concerns about his handling of the SNC-Lavalin scandal.

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Philpott tweeted on Thursday that the time is now for what she called “radical transparency.”

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Trudeau was pressed Thursday by journalists on what the modelling says, why it isn’t being shared, whether sharing it could encourage people to take the virus more seriously, and when it could be shared. Trudeau replied:

“I think people can imagine a range of scenarios.”

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“There is a range out there and just highlighting that range is not as useful or important as being able to get clearer numbers and analysis of what we are likely to face. But everything we are going to face will be directly linked to how people behave today.”

Some provinces, though, have started or are planning to release their projections for how COVID-19 could affect and in some cases overwhelm Canada’s health care systems.

British Columbia released its modelling roughly one week ago. It included both a best-case scenario based on the spread of the virus in South Korea along with a worst-case scenario model based on the crisis in Italy.






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B.C. health officials release medical models of worst-case coronavirus scenarios


B.C. health officials release medical models of worst-case coronavirus scenarios

Those models laid out both projected cases if no control measures were in place, current projects and growth rates of infections, as well as the predictions for the potential shortage of hospital beds.

READ MORE: 77 Alberta health-care workers infected with new coronavirus

Ontario Premier Doug Ford also vowed on Thursday to release projections on Friday.

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“You deserve to see the same data that I see, you deserve to know what I know,” he said during a briefing with media on the state of the virus in the province.

A spokesperson for Alberta Health also said that province plans to do the same.

“Alberta will be releasing modelling data in the coming days. An exact release date has not yet been set,” said Tom McMillan, spokesperson for Alberta Health.

“We will be using the latest data from around the world, in Canada and in Alberta to help anticipate what the next couple months of COVID-19 could look like in our province.”

A leaked report of the potential forecast in Saskatchewan was also obtained by Global News last week, and that shows the government there views 15,000 deaths as the worst-case scenario.

READ MORE: Leaked SHA document shows worst-case scenario outcome of coronavirus in Saskatchewan

Ford has said previously that his government was hesitant to release any data or modelling on the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, fearing it could cause “panic.”

“Those models can drastically change. If we underestimate on one side and we overestimate on the other, it could create a panic if we overestimate,” Ford told reporters Wednesday at Queen’s Park.

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“Our message is very clear. We are going through some turbulent waters over the next few weeks and we need to do everything we can to make sure that people self-isolate.”

Quebec’s Health Ministry also told Global News it would not release its modelling or projections.

“Based on the statistics currently available, it is possible to make certain extrapolations over time in order to estimate the needs that the network and the [Quebec] might have,” a spokesperson said in an email, adding that the different scenarios are produced by the General Directorate of Public Health.

“However, all of these internal tools used as working documents are confidential and intended for government authorities.”

Canada has now more than 10,100 confirmed cases on Thursday and at least 127 deaths. The provinces of Ontario, British Columbia and Quebec have the highest numbers of COVID-19 cases.

Ontario announced 401 more cases on April 2, bringing its total to almost 2,800 and 53 deaths.

Global News has reached out to representatives from all provinces, asking whether or when they plan to release modelling of their forecasts.

This story will be updated with additional responses as they come in.

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Provinces decry Ottawa’s plan to resettle asylum seekers across the country

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FREDERICTON – Provincial leaders across Canada are taking turns criticizing the federal Liberal government’s proposal to alleviate immigration pressure on Quebec and Ontario by resettling asylum seekers more equitably across the country.

New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs set the ball rolling when he told the Greater Moncton Chamber of Commerce on Wednesday that Ottawa was proposing the province take in 4,600 asylum seekers without providing financial assistance.

The next day, after his comments were called “largely fictitious” by the federal immigration minister, Higgs stood his ground.

“How many of this 4,600 that is being proposed … how many are actually, actual genuine asylum seekers? Because they haven’t gone through the process,” the New Brunswick premier told reporters.

The federal government has been under immense pressure from Quebec to reduce the number of temporary immigrants in the province, especially asylum seekers. The Quebec premier has said that in the last two years, the number of temporary immigrants in Quebec has doubled to 600,000 from 300,000. Ontario has also called on the federal government for help, citing the disproportionate number of would-be refugees in that province.

Speaking after a Liberal caucus meeting Wednesday in British Columbia, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller challenged Higgs’s remarks, saying they were “highly irresponsible.”

“We at no time have said that we would impose asylum seekers on provinces without financial compensation.”

Miller said federal and provincial officials had met during the summer to discuss federal funding and responsibilities for distributing asylum seekers across the country so they could integrate into the labour market. “In order to move forward, we have to put numbers on the table on what an aspirational number of asylum seekers would look like,” Miller said.

The minister said the numbers in question were based on models reflecting each province’s population. He said smaller provinces have a responsibility to take in more asylum seekers to lower the pressure on Ontario and Quebec.

But he said this does not mean New Brunswick would be forced to take in 4,600 asylum seekers. “We would expect the provinces like New Brunswick to do its part, but the last thing we want to see done is for this to be politicized,” Miller said.

Miller went on to suggest that New Brunswick ministers had indicated the province didn’t want to admit any asylum seekers, regardless of federal compensation. And he confirmed that some other provinces were also opposed to letting them in.

“We are looking at a number of other incentives that would push provinces that are recalcitrant,” he said.

It’s not just New Brunswick pushing back against Ottawa’s proposal.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said her government was also opposed to having more asylum seekers in her province.

“Although Alberta represents only 11.8 per cent of the Canadian population, we are currently supporting approximately 22 per cent — over 70,000 — of Ukrainian evacuees who arrived in Canada,” she said in a statement.

Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston said on X, “It is simply unacceptable for the Trudeau government to try to force thousands of asylum seekers on our province at this time. Nova Scotia simply does not have the capacity to accept thousands of asylum seekers.”

Jeremy Harrison, Saskatchewan’s minister of immigration, said the province had not made an agreement with the federal government regarding the resettlement of would-be refugees.

“Saskatchewan would strongly oppose any move by the federal government to unilaterally allocate asylum seekers to our province and has made that very clear directly at meetings of federal and provincial immigration ministers,” he said in a statement.

John Rustad, leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia, called Ottawa’s plan to “force” about 21,000 asylum seekers onto the province without any financial support “a reckless decision.”

New Brunswick Liberal Leader Susan Holt accused Higgs of manufacturing a distraction with a provincial election on the horizon. “Premier Higgs is once again being reckless and exaggerating the facts while trying to create division and fear about this news on potential asylum seekers,” she said in a statement.

New Brunswick Green Leader David Coon said he “just about fell on the floor” when he heard Higgs talk about the “scary picture of thousands and thousands of people coming into New Brunswick.”

“It was despicable. He’s clearly decided to take the low road in this campaign, to adopt some, let’s say Trump-lite, to do fearmongering,” Coon said, referencing former United States president Donald Trump.

Coon said asylum seekers, most of whom are trying to escape dangerous situations from their home countries, bring tremendous energy and contribute positively to society.

“This is the premier practising fearmongering to gaslight or light up people out there who hold prejudice and bigotry in their views.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.



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Italian man who bought Churchill portrait surprised by international art caper

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OTTAWA – An Italian lawyer who bought a portrait of Winston Churchill says he was surprised to learn five months later the answer to a puzzling, high-profile heist might be hanging on his living room wall.

Nicola Cassinelli, a lawyer in Genoa, Italy, plans to attend a ceremony at the Canadian Embassy in Rome next Thursday to mark the return of Yousuf Karsh’s signed 1941 photograph of the British leader.

Police say the “The Roaring Lion” was stolen from Ottawa’s Chateau Laurier hotel sometime between Christmas Day 2021 and Jan. 6, 2022, and replaced with a copy.

It was only months later, in August, when a hotel worker noticed the frame was not hung properly and looked different than the others.

Cassinelli purchased the portrait in May 2022 at an online Sotheby’s auction for 5,292 British pounds.

Cassinelli says he got a phone call from the auction house that October advising him not to sell or otherwise transfer the portrait due to an investigation into the Ottawa theft.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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B.C. signs national pharmacare deal with Ottawa, promises to expand drug coverage

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VANCOUVER – British Columbia has become the first province in Canada to sign a pharmacare agreement with the federal government that would help the province fund hormone replacement therapy and diabetes expenses.

Federal Health Minister Mark Holland said B.C.’s portion of the $1.5-billion national plan is estimated to be $195 million, and under the memorandum of understanding, funding could begin by April once the legislation makes it through the senate.

“My objective remains, and I am confident that we can achieve it, to sign an agreement with every jurisdiction in the country, every province, every territory, prior to April 1 of next year, and to get drugs flowing in every jurisdiction in that timeline,” Holland said at a joint news conference in Vancouver on Thursday.

The coverage was to be for birth control and diabetes drugs and supplies, but B.C. Health Minister Adrian Dix said oral contraceptives are already covered under a provincial program, so that share will be used to cover hormone therapy for women.

“We are taking that money, the between $30 and $40 million in B.C., that will come from the federal government for contraception, and applying it to something else, to make something else free at point-of-purchase, free for British Columbia women,” Dix said.

Dix, who has Type 1 diabetes, said about 150,000 British Columbians get diabetes medications, and it’s estimated that covering hormone replacement therapy will benefit 40,000 women.

He said the cost that comes with diabetes can be particularly difficult for some.

“I’ve had it, had it for a long time, and I can afford to deal with it,” Dix said. “Probably after taxes, $120,000 is what it cost me.”

In April 2023, B.C. became the first jurisdiction in Canada to provide free birth control and Dix said 264,000 women in British Columbia have been able to access free contraception.

Holland said funding hormone therapy in B.C. is fundamentally important for women’s health.

“For women, about one third of their life is going to be spent in a post-menopause state,” he said.

“Helping make that adjustment, that’s not a conversation we have nearly enough. And the fact that so many women can’t afford that treatment means fundamentally devastating things for their health,” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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