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Asian governments brace for economic effects of coronavirus – Aljazeera.com

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Policymakers in Japan on Friday braced for a sharp contraction in October-December growth and warned of a drop in output and consumption due to the coronavirus outbreak, as Asian economies sounded the alarm over darkening economic outlooks.

Singapore‘s economy could enter recession due to the blow from the coronavirus outbreak, its prime minister said on Friday, while neighbouring Malaysia said it would announce a stimulus package to mitigate the negative effects of the virus outbreak.

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Meanwhile, in China, at least two economists at government-linked think-tanks have in recent weeks projected a loss of up to one percentage point from China’s growth rate in the first quarter of 2020 and even for the full year.

Bank of Japan Executive Director Eiji Maeda said the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) may have suffered a “big contraction” in the final quarter of last year due to sluggish overseas demand and damage to consumption from last year’s sales tax increase.

“Japan’s economy is expected to continue expanding moderately as a trend,” thanks to robust capital expenditure and government spending, Maeda told Parliament.

“But we need to be vigilant against various risks such as the impact the coronavirus outbreak could have on output and spending by inbound tourists,” he said.

Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura also told reporters the virus outbreak, as well as unusually warm weather that hurts sales of winter clothing, were “fresh factors weighing on the economy”.

Analysts polled by Reuters expect Japan’s economy to have shrunk an annualised 3.7 percent in the October-December quarter, which would be the fastest pace of decline since 2014. The GDP data is due 8:50am on Monday (23:50 GMT on Sunday).

Japan is among the countries worst affected by the epidemic outside China, with 251 confirmed cases including those on a cruise ship.

Some analysts expect Japan’s economy to suffer another contraction in the current quarter as China’s virus outbreak hurts exports, output and consumption through a sharp drop in overseas tourists.

A separate Reuters poll released on Friday showed the coronavirus epidemic is expected to shave up to 0.2 percentage points off Japan’s economic growth rate this year.

The government decided on Friday to spend 10.3 billion yen ($93.8m) from budget reserves to respond to the coronavirus.

Finance Minister Taro Aso said the government was ready to take additional steps depending on how big the effect from the outbreak could be.

BOJ’s Maeda said the central bank will support the economy by maintaining its enormous stimulus programme but stopped short of signalling additional monetary support.

Maeda’s remarks suggest the BOJ does not see the virus impact as big enough yet to alter its economic projections.

Stimulus packages

In Singapore, the government is set to roll out a hefty package of budget measures on Tuesday to cushion the economic blow from the epidemic, with some analysts expecting it to run its biggest deficit in more than a decade.

Economists at Citi and Maybank expect a virus relief package of at least 700 million Singapore dollars ($505m) after Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loon said the effects of the coronavirus would be “significant”.

“The impact will be significant at least in the next couple of quarters. It is a very intense outbreak,” Lee said in a video interview posted on his Facebook page.

“I can’t say whether we will have a recession or not. It’s possible, but definitely our economy will take a hit,” Lee said in remarks made to media at Singapore’s main Changi airport.

Lee said business at the airport had suffered with flights down by a third.

Singapore has in effect banned all visitors from China, its biggest source of tourists, while some countries have advised against travel to Singapore which has one of the highest virus infection tallies outside China at 58.

The Asian business hub had just been showing signs of recovery from its lowest growth rate in a decade last year – a paltry 0.7 percent – when the outbreak spread to the city-state in late January.

Singapore is due to release final fourth-quarter growth data on Monday, and economists are anticipating revisions to its 2020 growth forecast range of 0.5-2.5 percent.

Meanwhile, Malaysia’s Ministry of Finance said in a statement on Friday that it would announce a stimulus package in the coming week to mitigate the economic effects of the coronavirus outbreak

Assistance will be given to the affected sectors, Minister of Finance Lim Guan Eng said. The government said on Tuesday that the stimulus package would be earmarked for the aviation, retailing and tourism industries.

SOURCE:
Reuters news agency

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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