At midday: TSX sits lower after Bank of Canada holds key interest rate at 5% – The Globe and Mail

Canada’s main stock index inched lower on Wednesday, but pared losses after the Bank of Canada forecast sluggish growth for the rest of the year while keeping interest rates steady even as it kept the door open for further rate hikes.

At 10:25 a.m. ET, the Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index was down 15.78 points, or 0.08%, at 18,970.71 and looked set for its sixth straight day of declines.

The Bank of Canada on Wednesday cut its 2023 growth forecast to 1.2% from the 1.8% it predicted in July.

Live updates: Bank of Canada holds key interest rate steady at 5%

BoC market reaction: Loonie and bond yields drop as traders price in higher odds of rate cut next year

The central bank held its key overnight rate at 5.0% as expected but was open to more rate hikes as it looks to tame inflation that could stay above its 2% target for another two years.

“The key here is BoC is probably not going to hike rates again, but they are not making the mistake they made earlier this year, suggesting that they’re on pause,” said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

“They are really driving home the point that they still have a tightening bias, and any significant upside surprise on growth or inflation, could be met with further rate hikes.”

Heavily-weighted financial stocks fell 0.6%.

Rate-sensitive technology stocks dropped 1.3% and real estate stocks fell nearly 1%.

The yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries gained some ground after slipping on Tuesday, further hurting rate-sensitive stocks.

Shares of Bank of Montreal fell 0.3% after Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday that the lender is exploring the sale of a portfolio of recreational vehicle loans, citing people with knowledge of the matter.

Wall Street is slumping Wednesday following a mixed set of profit reports from two of its most influential Big Tech companies.

The S&P 500 was 1% lower in morning trading, coming off its first gain in the last six days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 127 points, or 0.4%, as of 10:05 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 1.4% lower.

Microsoft rose 3.8% after reporting stronger profit and revenue for the summer than analysts expected. Its movements carry extra weight on the market because it’s the second-largest company by market value.

But Alphabet was tugging the market lower even though the parent company of Google and YouTube also reported stronger profit than expected. Its stock fell 8.5% on worries about a slowdown in growth for its cloud-computing business.

Alphabet is another one of Wall Street’s biggest companies and, like Microsoft, a member of the “Magnificent Seven” group of Big Tech stocks that’s accounted for a disproportionate amount of the S&P 500′s gain this year. The Dow was holding up better than other indexes because it includes Microsoft but not Alphabet.

Also pressuring the overall stock market was a rise in longer-term Treasury yields. The 10-year yield climbed to 4.90% from 4.82% late Tuesday.

Rapidly rising yields have been knocking the stock market lower since the summer. The 10-year yield has been catching up to the Federal Reserve’s main interest rate, which is above 5.25% and at its highest level since 2001 as the central bank tries to get inflation under control.

The 10-year yield earlier this week hit its highest level above 5% since 2007, and high yields knock down prices for stocks and other investments while slowing the overall economy and adding pressure to the financial system.

Many investors have been hoping the Fed will soon cut rates to allow the system more oxygen. But they’ve had to consistently push out such predictions with each successive report on the job market that’s come in remarkably solid. Such strength has kept the economy out of a recession but could also be adding upward pressure on inflation.

Investors banking on rate cuts may depending on a playbook that’s become obsolete, said Bryant VanCronkhite, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments. He said that may be pushing them to not take seriously enough the possibility of a global recession, which would be the result of rates left too high for too long.

For more than 40 years, the Fed has come to the rescue of markets and the economy whenever trouble arose by quickly cutting interest rates. That’s because high inflation was not a problem. But now, with the trend of globalization retreating and other long-term swings pushing upward on inflation, VanCronkhite said the Fed has to worry about more than just propping up the job market.

“I think the market is still believing the U.S. Fed are a series of magicians with crystal balls that will see the problem beforehand and solve it before it becomes too serious,” he said. “I believe the Fed is under a new paradigm and will be slower to react.”

“Their focus is going to be on inflation first, economy second, in my mind. As a result, I don’t think they’ll respond quickly. In fact, I think the Fed wants a recession.”

High rates and yields have already inflicted pain on the housing market, where mortgage rates have jumped to their highest levels since 2000. The Fed’s hope is to restrain the economy enough to cool off inflation, but not so much that it creates a deep recession.

A report on Wednesday morning said sales of new homes were stronger in September than economists expected, potentially complicating things for the Fed. Sales of new homes have been mostly recovering since hitting a bottom in the summer of 2022.

In the oil market, crude prices were holding relatively steady after slumping sharply earlier this week to take some pressure off inflation. A barrel of U.S. crude was 0.2% lower at $83.58. Brent crude, the international standard, was up 0.1% at $87.25 per barrel.

U.S. oil had been above $93 last month, and it’s bounced up and down since then amid concerns that the latest Hamas-Israel war could lead to disruptions in supplies from Iran or other big oil-producing countries.

In stock markets abroad, indexes were mixed across Europe and Asia.

Reuters and The Associated Press

Adblock test (Why?)

Source link