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ATTENTION Bombardier (TSX:BBD.B) Investors: Brace for Impact! – The Motley Fool Canada

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Bombardier (TSX:BBD.B) stock is already down 73%. Can it fall further? Yes, it can. Bombardier shareholders should brace for the impact as Standard & Poor’s removes the stock from the TSX Composite Index. Many ETFs that track the index will sell their positions, and some retail investors may sell out of panic. The stock, which is trading 27% above its 52-week low of $0.38, could make a new low.

The bearish sentiment for the stock comes as the TSX Composite Index is a barometre of the Canadian economy, and exclusion from the index shows that the stock is underperforming the economy. The COVID-19 pandemic outbreak sent the index down 34% in March. With partial recover, the index is down 11% year to date. During a downturn, investors look to buy defensive or value stocks that outperform the TSX Composite Index, and Bombardier is neither of the two.

The bearish case of Bombardier

Bombardier has significantly underperformed the index and failed to show any signs of recovery. The company has been making losses for four out of the last five years. It underwent a multi-year restructuring. It has sold its commercial aerospace operations and is selling its rail operations in favour of business jets programs — Challenger, Learjet, and Global Express. The company plans to use the proceeds from the sale to repay its debt, which is worth $10 billion.

Bombardier-Alstom deal is exposed to the pandemic uncertainty

However, the pandemic has worsened the economic conditions for Bombardier, leaving the company’s restructuring efforts in the dust. Firstly, the company is selling its rail business to Alstom for US$6.4 billion. It expects to complete the deal in the first half of 2021. So far, the transaction is on track, and both the companies are sticking to the original terms. However, one year is a long time. Many capital-intensive companies are downsizing in the current market situation. Depending on how the economic conditions play out, the deal could be revised, suspended, or cancelled.

Business jets are not a good business to be in the pandemic

Secondly, the pandemic has affected demand for business jets, Bombardier’s only operations left after restructuring. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted travel and pushed corporate to remote working. Business jets operations, which were unaffected during the 2008 financial crisis, are also facing the impact of the coronavirus crisis. The company expects business jet demand to fall by 30-35% and is, therefore, cutting 2,500 jobs in that segment.

The aerospace industry is in a multi-year downturn

Lastly, if the problem was only with Bombardier, there was still hope for recovery. But the entire aerospace supply chain has taken a hit. Everyone, from rivals Boeing and Airbus to engine manufacturer Rolls Royce to airlines like Air Canada, has announced significant job cuts. The entire industry will take at least three years to recover.

Even before taking into account the above three factors, Bombardier reported a net loss of US$200 million and a net debt of around US$8 billion in the first quarter. The company reported negative free cash flow of US$1.6 billion and just US$2 billion in cash reserve. While the company was bleeding losses, its former CEO Alain Bellemare left the company with generous severance pay of $17.5 million.

Investors should brace for impact

The economy, industry, and fundamentals … nothing is in favour of Bombardier. And now, the stock market is also adding to its difficulties. Bombardier stock was listed in the TSX 60 index at the start of the year. But it is now being excluded even from the TSX Composite Index of 250 shares. The stock could fall double digits in the coming week, which will see more sellers than buyers. If you own the stock, brace for a steep decline this week. It is not a value stock that will generate returns in the future. Hence, it is better to sell this stock and invest it in other stocks that can at least earn market returns. 

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Fool contributor Puja Tayal has no position in any of the stocks mentioned.

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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