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Avoiding the stock market will likely hinder your retirement goals – BNNBloomberg.ca

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News that stock markets are hitting new highs isn’t news at all. They’ve been hitting new highs for over a decade and before that they hit new highs. Over the long-term, they have always gone up. 

All those highs can be problematic for long-term investors adhering to the ‘buy low, sell high’ principle, and sitting on the sidelines waiting for the next big market correction. Keeping a large chunk of savings in cash or fixed income is not an option for most Canadians who want to retire comfortably. Cash generates close to zero returns over time and two per cent is a stretch for safe, fixed-income investments like bonds. 

Most retirement plans are based on an assumption that equity returns in the upper single digits will compound over time. That won’t happen for investors waiting for the lows to be low enough.

Being skittish about putting your retirement savings at risk is perfectly natural. Psychologists consider it a behavioural bias called loss aversion. Deep in the back of our minds, the pain of losing money is disproportionately stronger than the pleasure from gaining it, putting fear ahead of reason.

A recent study on loss aversion by Sun Life Financial attempted to quantify this bias in terms of dollars, by asking people how much they would need to gain in relation to the amount they would risk losing. The study found most respondents would not risk losing $100 if the potential gain was only $100. More agreed to take the risk as the potential gain increased. It found most investors would only risk the $100 if the potential gain was doubled. 

Much of today’s loss-aversion sentiment could be rooted in the global market meltdown of 2008, which can also serve as a worst-case scenario since it was the worst financial collapse since the Great Depression of the 1930s. In both cases, losses were devastating, but markets eventually recovered and investors who overcame their fear and held steady recouped their losses.

Long-term charts of the benchmark S&P 500 and S&P/TSX composite index show steady gains in the decades before 2008. The S&P 500 lost half its value between October 2007 when the meltdown began and its March 2009 bottom. By October 2013, the S&P 500 topped its pre-meltdown high and has since doubled from there – as if the meltdown never even happened.

The plunge was much quicker and the recovery much slower for the TSX, which lost nearly half its value between June 2008 and February 2009. It wasn’t until June 2014 that the TSX topped its pre-meltdown high. It has since rallied an additional 20 per cent.

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That’s not to say the next big correction won’t be tomorrow, but it’s a fact of life that most of us need to invest to retire comfortably and getting there usually requires taking a leap of faith in the equity markets. As the mandatory investment industry disclaimer says: “past returns are not an indication of future performance.” Investors cannot control the broader markets but there are hedging strategies that can help cushion the blows and outpace the highs, which are outlined below.

  • Dollar cost averaging: Making regular contributions over time smooths out entry points in fluctuating markets. It allows investors to buy into stocks as they rise, and buy stocks that are down at a discount.
  • Income-generating investments: Two per cent isn’t much of a return for fixed-income investments like bonds, but it does generate reliable returns in times of stock market volatility. Portfolios should have a fixed-income component that grows proportionally as the investor nears retirement and needs to withdraw cash. Stocks that pay reliable dividends are also a good source of income regardless of equity market conditions.
  • Diversification: Spreading your equity investments among sectors and geographic regions can limit risk and open up your portfolio to opportunity. We often tend to look at stock markets as a whole but there are a lot of parts that move in different directions.
  • Buying the best of the best: Most stocks get swept up in market advances and declines but the best ones tend to lose less on the downside and gain more on the upside. Finding the best stocks means doing your homework, getting professional investment advice –  or both.

Payback Time is a weekly column by personal finance columnist Dale Jackson about how to prepare your finances for retirement. Have a question you want answered? Email dalejackson.paybacktime@gmail.com.  

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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