After new daily COVID-19 cases spiked to unprecedented numbers in mid to late November, B.C. has begun to “flatten the curve” once again. But Dr. Bonnie Henry says now’s not the time to become complacent.
With the second wave of the pandemic hitting B.C. much harder than the first, daily new case numbers rose rapidly through much of November, hitting a high of 941 on Nov. 24. With widespread transmission amongst B.C.’s most vulnerable in long-term care homes, COVID-19 deaths have also steadily risen for more than a month.
But in recent weeks, the daily case numbers have begun to drop, hovering around 500 to 600 new daily cases in recent weeks. This change comes in the wake of new restrictive measures the province implemented last month, that saw the banning of all indoor social gatherings and mandated indoor mask use in public spaces.
“What we are doing is working, but we cannot let up,” Dr. Henry said Wednesday. “We have bent our curve, slightly, and we are now, perhaps, on a downward trajectory.
“This doesn’t mean that we’re out of the woods. We know that the contact tracers are still working very hard, particularly in Fraser Health, Vancouver Coastal and the north, where it has been very stressful and strained.”
Deaths and hospitalization numbers, which tend to lag behind changes in case numbers, have not seen the same decrease as case numbers yet. In December, 339 British Columbians have died from the virus and 348 people are currently hospitalized in the province.
Dr. Henry said the BC CDC’s modelling shows the importance of staying committed to reducing contact with others through the winter months to prevent transmission. Currently, the province has between 40 and 50 per cent of normal infectious contact rate, outlined in the graphic below. Modelling shows that just increasing that contact rate to an average of 60 per cent of normal could cause numbers to rise once again.
“We can continue to bend our curve down, to make sure we are doing everything we can to prevent transmission,” Dr. Henry said.
While two COVID-19 vaccines will be rolled out across B.C. over the next couple of months, Dr. Henry said the province’s most vulnerable won’t be fully protected for some time.
