Compared to last summer, prices are still up 3.6% in B.C. | Photo via Artie Photography (Artie Ng) / Getty Images
B.C. real estate prices have fallen for a fourth straight month, shaving about 4% off their value from June, transaction statistics show.
Average home sale prices across the province are now down 15.7% in July — sitting at about $920,000 — as compared to the market’s latest peak in March, when the average price was nearly $1.1 million.
Prices in the Fraser Valley have fallen the most of any region in B.C. since March — 20.5%, as the average unit now sells for just over $1 million.
“High mortgage rates continued to lower sales activity in July,” said BC Real Estate Association chief economist Brendon Ogmundson Thursday in his monthly market update for July.
“Many regions around the province have seen sales slip to levels well below normal for this time of year,” added Ogmundson.
Compared to last summer, prices are still up 3.6% in B.C.; however, prices are trending to a point where they will soon see a year-over-year decline, after peaking at 24.9% gains in March.
Active July listings of 31,386 remain below the estimated 38,000 needed for long-term market balance. Last July there were 24,473 listings.
Sales volume is down 42% year over year, from $8.6 billion worth of transactions in July 2021 to $5.2 billion last month. More properties sold in B.C. last January (6,138) than they did in July (5,572).
Chilliwack and the Fraser Valley saw the biggest drops in year-over-year sales, with declines of 57% and 50%, respectively.
The association noted that as the pace of sales activity declines below normal levels, inventory is accumulating.
“Inventories remain quite low, but the slow pace of sales has tipped some markets into balanced or even buyers’ market territory,” stated the association.
In an effort to curb inflation, sitting at 8.1% in June, the Bank of Canada has increased interest rates from 0.25% in January to 2.5% in July and another rate hike is expected Sept. 7. The bank has stated it is targeting a 3% or 3.25% rate by the end of the year, which will further erode homebuyers’ qualifying levels.
OTTAWA — Buying a home has become more unaffordable for Canadians even as housing prices fall, according to new reports from the parliamentary budget officer and RBC.
The PBO’s house price assessment, published on Thursday, says the cost of the average house is 67 per cent higher than what the average household can afford — and RBC’s own report says the median household would need to spend 60 per cent of its income on ownership costs.
That’s despite a seven per cent decline in housing prices from February to August this year.
According to the budget officer, the average national home price in February was more than 50 per cent higher than it was two years before.
The national average price of a home reached a peak of $839,600 in February 2022, up 52 per cent from $551,100 in February 2020.
Since then, prices have declined by seven per cent, down to $777,200 in August.
But with interest rates on the rise, buying a home remains highly unaffordable for the average household, the assessment says.
Using a methodology developed by the International Monetary Fund that examines household borrowing capacity and the ability to purchase a home in select Canadian cities, the PBO says a house considered affordable for an average household in August would cost $464,952.
The national average home price was 67 per cent higher.
The gap has gotten larger since December 2021, when the national average house price was about 45 per cent more expensive than what an average household could afford, according to the budget officer.
The RBC report, also published Thursday, says buying a home has never been this unaffordable, per its own affordability measures.
RBC says the median Canadian household would need to spend 60 per cent of its income to cover ownership costs. For those who live in Toronto and Vancouver, the figure balloons to 83 per cent and 90 per cent, respectively.
Both RBC and budget officer Yves Giroux attribute the worsening of the situation to higher mortgage costs, as the Bank of Canada aggressively raises interest rates to cool high inflation.
Since March, the central bank has hiked its key interest rate by three percentage points. Its key rate currently sits at 3.25 per cent and another interest rate hike is expected in October.
The rate hikes are feeding into higher borrowing costs for those seeking a mortgage and, in turn, a slowdown in the housing market.
“The Bank of Canada’s rate hiking campaign since March has added hundreds of dollars to mortgage payments that come with a home purchase,” the RBC report says.
RBC expects affordability issues to peak by the end of the year. As house prices continue to fall and interest rates eventually stabilize, the bank expects affordability to improve.
“The good news is the widespread market downturn is setting the stage for some affordability improvement down the road,” the report says.
Based on scenarios the PBO constructed to gauge where housing prices are headed, prices could decline by 12 to 23 per cent by the end of the year from the peak reached in the winter.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 29, 2022.
Nojoud Al Mallees, The Canadian Press
Canada’s national housing agency plans to revamp its forecasts to call for a drop of as much as 15 per cent in home prices, as higher mortgage rates threaten to cause a protracted slump in real estate.
Canada Mortgage & Housing Corp. said in July that national housing prices could slide 5 per cent by mid-2023, compared with levels earlier this year. It’s now revising those projections to allow for a 10 per cent to 15 per cent decline, Chief Executive Officer Romy Bowers said in an interview Thursday at the Bloomberg Canadian Finance Conference.
“We’ve seen that inflation has been more persistent than we originally anticipated and the Bank of Canada is taking more aggressive action, so we’re in the process of revising our forecasts,” Bowers said, adding that the new projections would be released soon.
Since CMHC’s July forecast, the central bank has stepped up what was already one of the most aggressive rate-hiking cycles in its history. It shocked markets by increasing the policy rate a full percentage point on July 13 — the biggest since 1998 — then raised the rate again by three-quarters of a point in September.
Variable-rate mortgages at Royal Bank of Canada, which were offered at less than 2 per cent in February, are now over 5 per cent and poised to go even higher if the central bank lifts rates in October, as expected. The abrupt rise in borrowing costs has had an immediate impact, prompting benchmark home prices to fall for six straight months.
CMHC’s new projections would bring its forecasts closer to those of private sector economists. Still, Bowers said price declines must be viewed against the historic gains in home values over the last two years.
“It’s very important when thinking about this price decrease to think about the rapid, sort of unsustainable, levels of house price increases that occurred during the pandemic,” she said, adding that shelter will remain unaffordable for many Canadians.
In fact, even though prices have dipped since February, it has never been harder for Canadians to buy a home, according to a new report by RBC economists. Total ownership costs, including mortgage payments, now soak up 60 per cent of a typical household’s income, higher than the previous record of 57 per cent.
Perched over a harbour across from the bright lights of Vancouver’s city centre, a massive new residential development is pushing the boundaries of what it means to be climate resilient.
The development, called North Harbour, is being built by developer Concert Properties in North Vancouver to a set of novel standards that will mitigate against sea level rise and storm surge.
The new requirement is for the project to be raised 4.5 metres above sea level, well over a metre above the previous requirement. None of the building’s mechanical equipment will be installed below ground, which is the norm, to prevent damage from flooding.
“I think with this site, we really were on the leading edge of thinking about what the next chapter of planning for sea level rise looked like in British Columbia,” says Michael Epp, the director of planning for the City of North Vancouver.
The North Harbour project is a prominent example of a paradigm shift in civic planning to make cities and communities more weather-resistant. The storm that barrelled through Atlantic Canada last weekend swallowed homes in its fury, and was just the latest reminder of the power of nature to eat away at coastlines in the blink of an eye.
Because of climate disasters, insurers, municipal governments, developers and ordinary Canadians are waking up to the real cost of inaction.
A report released today by the Canadian Climate Institute concludes that damage from climate change will take a $25 billion bite out of the economy each year. Then there are costs to health, jobs and overall wellbeing, all of which will suffer as “heat-induced productivity losses and premature deaths shrink the workforce,” the report finds.
In other words, climate change takes a toll not just on the economy, but also on our overall health and well-being.
For city planners in North Vancouver, the flooding that washed out much of Calgary in 2013 was their teachable moment. It forced them to rethink how to deal with rising water and to plan ahead for climate scenarios all the way to the end of the century.
But the unfortunate reality, says Jesse Keenan, a professor of real estate at Tulane University in New Orleans, is that it often takes a disaster where you live to make change happen. The other problem is that information that would otherwise help make better decisions is simply lacking.
“One thing we don’t know in Canada very much about is the benefits of investing in flood mitigation,” says Jason Thistlethwaite, an expert in climate adaptation at the University of Waterloo.
His research has found that just six per cent of residents who live in flood-risk areas know they do, and the majority, 81 per cent, have not reviewed their local flood area maps.
“It’s difficult to imagine a property owner who’s desperately seeking a house to prioritize something like flood risk over, let’s say, a granite countertop or various fixtures in their home,” he said.
But the importance of getting a clear climate risk picture is becoming just as obvious as a home inspection or a study of an apartment’s sightlines.
In the United States, at least $108 billion in real estate valuation is at risk of literally going underwater, according to Don Bain, a senior advisor at Climate Central, a non-profit that looks at the impact of climate change on people’s lives.
“By mid-century,” he concludes in a recent report, “more than 648,000 individual tax parcels, totalling as many as 4.4 million acres, are projected to be at least partly below the relevant tidal boundary level.”
The world is starting to appreciate that there is a financial and health cost associated with polluting the atmosphere with reckless abandon.
“We’re at a phase where the capital markets are really beginning to understand this as a risk,” says Spenser Robinson, a professor of finance and real estate at Central Michigan University.
Large regulatory bodies like the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, he says, are proposing more stringent disclosure laws so that people understand the dangers associated with a range of financial products, including real estate.
But climate-risk factors, Robinson says, have yet to trickle down to the general investor level, and they need to.
“Right now, this is kind of some opaque black box concept that the average consumer can’t really understand.”
To address that, some real estate firms are starting to flag climate risk much like they do walkability scores.
For example, realtor.com has started putting environmental risk scores on some of its home listings.
Then there is artificial intelligence, which is being used to assess climate impacts on real estate valuations.
Parag Khanna, an entrepreneur and author who has written extensively on migration, argues that a warming planet is completely changing the calculus of where people are choosing to live.
His latest venture is a platform – Climate Alpha – powered by artificial intelligence that makes cutting-edge predictions on property valuations based on climate risks and other factors.
Machine learning, Khanna says, can take into account a range of data points, from climate forecasts, to immigration patterns, to the availability of land. These data can then be used to assess property prices in ways that financial data and models simply can’t compete with.
For example, new AI-powered modelling tools can look at how much property prices have been going up or down in a given property market over a period of time, and calculate where those valuations will go in the coming years based on a variety of climate risk calculations and migratory patterns, Khanna says.
Retirees Joan and Rob Boras recently moved to BC’s Okanagan Valley from Alberta, and decided to build their home in the most environmentally sustainable way possible. But part of their motivation was also to ensure their home was resilient, given the hotter summers and more intense wildfire seasons.
“You can’t bury your head in the sand anymore,” Joan Boras told Global News from Naramata, B.C.
They didn’t need advanced technology or fancy financial models to tell them they needed to look climate change straight in the eye.
“You’ve got to look, and when you look, you’ve got to think, ‘OK, what is this area prone to? What are the things that happen?’ We knew it was fires out here. You know that,” Joan says, emphasizing that, “We’re not super wealthy by any means.”
They did their homework and found a contractor who understood the mission. They deliberately picked a lot that was away from the forest edge, and are using a range of energy-efficient and fire-resistant products and technologies to reduce their home’s impact on the environment and make it more resilient.
But this kind of forward-thinking innovation by ordinary homebuyers is still more of an exception than the rule. Information, however, is starting to trickle down to the average person, and that means there will be more demand to build differently.
A study led by UBC researcher Markus Baldauf found that flood-prone homes in communities where there is strong acceptance of climate change sell for less than in those communities where climate change is not taken as seriously. In other words, if you know about the climate risk, you’re not going to pay as much for your property.
“The more information we get out there, the greater response we see among buyers and sellers,” Keenan says.
The most forward-thinking municipalities know that as well: getting ahead of climate risk means more investment, not less.
“In the future,” says Jason Thistlethwaite, “we’re going to be looking at municipalities who are recognized for being climate resilient, and their property values are going to go up because people are going to want to live there.”
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