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Backroom deals, old-school politics help rise of Japan's likely new premier – TheChronicleHerald.ca

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By Linda Sieg and Sakura Murakami

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s ruling party has yet to vote on a successor to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe but his loyal lieutenant looks set to win the post, the result of backroom maneuvering and bargaining that began months before Abe said he’d quit over ill health.

Yoshihide Suga, Abe’s chief cabinet secretary, emerged this week as the frontrunner in the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) Sept. 14 leadership race when five of the party’s seven factions backed him, before he even announced his candidacy on Wednesday.

The new LDP leader is almost guaranteed to become prime minister because of the party’s majority in parliament’s lower house.

The choice of Suga highlights the lingering influence of factions and old-school, personal politics and his alliance with the LDP’s chief manager of party funds, rather than policy debates, party insiders say.

However, the image of backroom dealing – muted during Abe’s nearly eight years in office – could dent Suga’s credibility with voters in a general election that must be held by late 2021.

“There’s no way that the leader gets elected as a result of a debate over policy, it’s impossible,” said Shizuka Kamei, 83, a former LDP heavyweight who spent 38 years in parliament and was one of five party barons who met secretly to pick a successor to then-premier Keizo Obuchi after he suffered a stroke in April 2000.

For decades, the conservative LDP was dominated by factions whose bosses backed rival candidates in multi-member constituencies, collected and handed out campaign funds, and used their clout to launch runs at the premiership.

That influence was weakened by reforms in the 1990s, but faction bosses still play big roles in the allocation of party and cabinet posts and in determining who wins leadership races.

THREE DINNERS

Unusually, Suga himself is not a member of any faction, making his rise all the more notable. However, party insiders say his path to frontrunner was aided by his alliance with party heavyweight Toshihiro Nikai, the LDP’s secretary general, cemented at three highly publicized dinners since June.

Talk that Abe might step down early, before his term as LDP leader and hence, premier, ends in September 2021, has simmered for months due to his low voter ratings, and gathered steam after reports his chronic illness had worsened.

Nikai, 81, has considerable clout because he effectively controls how the party allocates campaign funds, money that used to be disbursed by faction heads until the 1990s reforms.

Nikai is “an old-school politician who does old-school politics”, said Katsuyuki Yakushiji, a professor at Toyo University.

“For him, public opinion is irrelevant. Nikai has teamed up with Suga to garner support for Suga and set him up as the next prime minister”.

Nikai would benefit from a Suga premiership because Suga is most likely to let Nikai remain in his powerful post.

Nikai could not immediately be reached for comment.

Suga got a big boost on Tuesday when the LDP’s general affairs committee decided to hold a slimmed-down leadership poll, limiting voting to its members of parliament and three representatives from each local chapter.

It rejected calls for a full-scale election that would include rank-and-file members, saying such a vote would take too long and leave a political vacuum, although the outgoing premier stays in his job until after the new leader is chosen.

The committee opted for a format that favors Suga over main rival Shigeru Ishiba, a former defense minister more popular with the public and grassroots LDP members.

OLD-STYLE

The old-style maneuvering annoyed many rank-and-file LDP members and younger lawmakers.

“This should not be decided secretively,” said Ryusuke Doi, secretary general of the LDP’s chapter in Kanagawa near Tokyo. “I think they did this to crush Ishiba.”

Ishiba has been a rare LDP critic of Abe during his nearly eight-year rule, has long shunned factions and now heads a group with just 19 members.

He also topped surveys of lawmakers whom voters preferred as next prime minister.

He has said the election format was “very regrettable” and bad for both democracy and the party.

Among Suga’s backers are the 98-member strong Hosoda faction, from which Abe hails, and Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso’s group with 54 MPs.

Abe had long been thought to favor another candidate, former foreign minister Fumio Kishida.

But Kishida failed to enthuse ordinary voters, ranking low in public opinion polls, and Abe ultimately declined to give him public backing, effectively clearing the way for Suga.

Once Suga gained momentum, other faction leaders jumped on the bandwagon to ensure their members had a good shot at winning cabinet and party executive posts in the new regime, and ensure continuity of the status quo, sources said.

For all the similarities to the days of old-school LDP politics, there is one key distinction: Suga’s status as neither a member nor leader of a faction.

“Factions are still important, but it’s not like the old days when there were powerful faction leaders who all wanted to become prime minister,” said Gerry Curtis, a professor emeritus at Columbia University.

“Suga is the most powerful person and he’s not even in a faction.”

(Reporting by Linda Sieg and Sakura Murakami; Editing by David Dolan and Raju Gopalakrishnan)

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‘Disgraceful:’ N.S. Tory leader slams school’s request that military remove uniform

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.

Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.

A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”

Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.

“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.

In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”

“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”

Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.

Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.

Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.

“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.

“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.

“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”

Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.

“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”

NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”

“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Saskatchewan NDP’s Beck holds first caucus meeting after election, outlines plans

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REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.

Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.

She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.

Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.

Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.

The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Nova Scotia election: Liberals say province’s immigration levels are too high

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.

Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.

“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.

“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”

The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.

In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.

“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”

In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.

“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”

Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.

Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.

“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”

In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.

In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.

“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”

Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.

“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”

The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.

“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.

Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.

“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

— With files from Keith Doucette in Halifax

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