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Bank of Canada expected to hold interest rates this week as grey cloud hangs over economy

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OTTAWA –

The Bank of Canada is expected to preach patience at its interest rate announcement this week as economists say weakening economic conditions are setting the stage for rate cuts in the coming months.

The central bank is widely expected to continue holding its key interest rate at five per cent on Wednesday, as many forecasters anticipate the first rate cut to come in around June.

But the Bank of Canada will have the opportunity to weigh in on the latest gross domestic product figures and how those affect the path for interest rates.

Economists say the slowdown in the Canadian economy is broadly in line with what the central bank was expecting — and hoping for.

“At the margin, things are looking a little bit weaker than what the Bank of Canada might have envisaged,” said Royce Mendes, managing director and head of macro strategy at Desjardins.

“Domestic spending was lower in the fourth quarter than it was in the third quarter. And that’s particularly concerning, given the fact that the population grew so dramatically during that period.”

The Canadian economy grew at an annualized rate of one per cent in the fourth quarter, which exceeded economists’ expectations and the Bank of Canada’s most recent forecast.

But the headline figure appears to be masking how weak the Canadian economy actually is.

Economic growth during the last three months of the year was driven by global factors, including strong U.S. spending trends which boosted Canadian exports.

Meanwhile, on a per-capita basis, real GDP continued to fall in the fourth quarter.

“This is probably the weakest one-per-cent growth I think any of us have lived through,” said Douglas Porter, BMO’s chief economist.

The Bank of Canada’s aggressive rate hikes are largely responsible for the economic slowdown. Consumers have reeled back spending as many of them face higher borrowing costs on their mortgages and other debt.

Companies are also feeling the pinch, as evidenced by falling business investment.

Perhaps the one outlier in the economic data has been the labour market. According Statistics Canada’s labour force survey, the unemployment rate ticked down to 5.7 per cent in January, hovering around pre-pandemic levels, while annual wage growth remained above five per cent.

However, Mendes says he’s grown skeptical of the labour force survey. He points out that payroll data from Statistics Canada suggests labour market conditions are weakening more meaningfully.

“I think the Bank of Canada is looking at all of these data in totality, and will come to the conclusion that if anything, the labour market has weakened since the time of the January monetary policy report,” he said.

The softening of the Canadian economy, along with improving supply chains, has paved the way to slower price growth.

Canada’s annual inflation rate tumbled to 2.9 per cent in January, back down in the Bank of Canada’s one to three per cent target range.

But the central bank has been clear that it won’t wave the victory flag until inflation is on a sustainable path back to two per cent.

That means inflation would have to continue steadily declining and core measures of inflation — which strip out volatile price movements — would need to follow suit.

Mendes says he’ll be watching closely to see what the central bank says about core measures of inflation, looking for a signal on where it will take its key interest rate.

The Bank of Canada has often pointed out that its two core measures of inflation are well above its target, suggesting price growth is still stubbornly high.

But Mendes’ research suggests those measures are flawed because they strip out too many components, making it harder to gauge where inflation is headed.

“At the least I expect the Bank of Canada to take a more holistic view of the inflation indicators and to acknowledge the progress that we are seeing in taming underlying inflationary pressures. If they don’t, I would take that as a very, very hawkish signal,” he said.

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Bitcoin is at the doorstep of $100,000 as post-election rally rolls on

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NEW YORK (AP) — Bitcoin topped $98,000 for the first time Thursday, extending a streak of record after record highs since the U.S. presidential election. The cryptocurrency has rocketed more than 40% in just two weeks.

Now, bitcoin is at the doorstep of $100,000, just two years after dropping below $17,000 following the collapse of crypto exchange FTX. The recent, dramatic rally arrives as industry players expect the incoming Trump administration to bring a more “crypto-friendly” approach toward regulating the digital currency.

Bitcoin traded as high as $98,349 early Thursday, according to CoinDesk, and was slightly below that level at 1:25 p.m. ET.

As with everything in the volatile cryptoverse, the future is impossible to know. And while some are bullish, other experts continue to warn of investment risks.

Here’s what you need to know.

Back up. What is cryptocurrency again?

Cryptocurrency has been around for a while now. But, chances are, you’ve heard about it more and more over the last few years.

In basic terms, cryptocurrency is digital money. This kind of currency is designed to work through an online network without a central authority — meaning it’s typically not backed by any government or banking institution — and transactions get recorded with technology called a blockchain.

Bitcoin is the largest and oldest cryptocurrency, although other assets like ethereum, tether and dogecoin have also gained popularity over the years. Some investors see cryptocurrency as a “digital alternative” to traditional money — but it can be very volatile, with its price reliant on larger market conditions.

Why is bitcoin soaring?

A lot of the recent action has to do with the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.

Crypto industry players have welcomed Trump’s victory, in hopes that he would be able to push through legislative and regulatory changes that they’ve long lobbied for — which, generally speaking, aim for an increased sense of legitimacy without too much red tape.

Trump, who was once a crypto skeptic, recently pledged to make the U.S. “the crypto capital of the planet” and create a “strategic reserve” of bitcoin. His campaign accepted donations in cryptocurrency and he courted fans at a bitcoin conference in July. He also launched World Liberty Financial, a new venture with family members to trade cryptocurrencies.

How of this will actually pan out — and whether or not Trump will successfully act quickly on these promises — has yet to be seen.

“This is not necessarily a short-term story, it’s likely a much longer-term story,” Citi macro strategist David Glass told The Associated Press last week. “And there is the question of how quickly can U.S. crypto policy make a serious impact on (wider adoption).”

Adam Morgan McCarthy, a research analyst at Kaiko, thinks the industry is craving “just some sort of clarity.” Much of the approach to regulating crypto in the past has been “enforcement based,” he notes, which has been helpful in weeding out some bad actors — but legislation might fill in other key gaps.

Gary Gensler, who as head of the Securities and Exchange Commission under President Joe Biden has led a U.S. government’s crackdown on the crypto industry, penalized a number of crypto companies for violating securities laws. Gensler announced Thursday that he would step down as SEC chair on Jan. 20, Inauguration Day.

Despite crypto’s recent excitement around Trump, McCarthy said that 2024 has already been a “hugely consequential year for regulation in the U.S.” — pointing to January’s approval of spot bitcoin ETFs, for example, which mark a new way to invest in the asset.

Spot ETFs have been the dominant driver of bitcoin for some time now — but, like much of the crypto’s recent momentum, saw record inflows postelection. According to Kaiko, bitcoin ETFs recorded $6 billion in trade volume for the week of the election alone.

In April, bitcoin also saw its fourth “halving” — a preprogrammed event that impacts production by cutting the reward for mining, or the creation of new bitcoin, in half. In theory, if demand remains strong, some analysts say this “supply shock” can also help propel the price long term. Others note it may be too early to tell.

What are the risks?

History shows you can lose money in crypto as quickly as you’ve made it. Long-term price behavior relies on larger market conditions. Trading continues at all hours, every day.

At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, bitcoin stood at just over $5,000. Its price climbed to nearly $69,000 by November 2021, during high demand for technology assets, but later crashed during an aggressive series of Federal Reserve rate hikes. And in late 2022 collapse of FTX significantly undermined confidence in crypto overall, with bitcoin falling below $17,000.

Investors began returning in large numbers as inflation started to cool — and gains skyrocketed on the anticipation and then early success of spot ETFs. But experts still stress caution, especially for small-pocketed investors. And lighter regulation from the coming Trump administration could mean less guardrails.

While its been a big month for crypto — and particularly bitcoin, which McCarthy notes has set record highs for ten of the last 21 days — there’s always risk for “correction,” or seeing prices fluctuate back down some. Some assets may also have more restrictions than others.

“I would say, keep it simple. And don’t take on more risk than you can afford to,” McCarthy said — adding that there isn’t a “magic eight ball” to know for certain what comes next.

What about the climate impact?

Assets like bitcoin are produced through a process called “mining,” which consumes a lot of energy. Operations relying on pollutive sources have drawn particular concern over the years.

Recent research published by the United Nations University and Earth’s Future journal found that the carbon footprint of 2020-2021 bitcoin mining across 76 nations was equivalent to the emissions from burning 84 billion pounds of coal or running 190 natural gas-fired power plants. Coal satisfied the bulk of bitcoin’s electricity demands (45%), followed by natural gas (21%) and hydropower (16%).

Environmental impacts of bitcoin mining boil largely down to the energy source used. Industry analysts have maintained that clean energy has increased in use in recent years, coinciding with rising calls for climate protections



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Transgender community gathers in remembrance, opposition to Alberta legislation |

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Members of Edmonton’s transgender community and their loved ones gathered to mark the international Transgender Day of Remembrance where they held candles and mourned for transgender people who have recently died from violence or suicide. In Alberta, the gathering was also about opposing proposed legislation in the province. (Nov. 21, 2024)



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Canadian basketball player Chad Posthumus dead at 33 after brain aneurysm

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WINNIPEG – Canadian basketball player Chad Posthumus, a founding member of the Canadian Elite Basketball League, died Wednesday. He was 33.

The CEBL’s Winnipeg Sea Bears said Thursday that Posthumus, the team’s captain, suffered a brain aneurysm during a training session in Winnipeg on Nov. 9.

He then battled complications from a corrective surgery that left him in critical condition in the intensive care unit and did not recover.

Posthumus, a Winnipeg native, played for the CEBL’s Saskatchewan Rattlers, Ottawa BlackJacks, Edmonton Stingers and Brampton Honey Badgers before joining his hometown team.

He also played for teams in Argentina and Japan.

Internationally, the six-foot-11 Posthumus played for the 3×3 national team, representing Canada at the 3×3 AmeriCup in 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 21, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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