The Bank of Canada is expected to preach patience at its interest rate announcement this week as economists say weakening economic conditions are setting the stage for rate cuts in the coming months.
The central bank is widely expected to continue holding its key interest rate at five per cent on Wednesday, as many forecasters anticipate the first rate cut to come in around June.
But the Bank of Canada will have the opportunity to weigh in on the latest gross domestic product figures and how those affect the path for interest rates.
Economists say the slowdown in the Canadian economy is broadly in line with what the central bank was expecting — and hoping for.
“At the margin, things are looking a little bit weaker than what the Bank of Canada might have envisaged,” said Royce Mendes, managing director and head of macro strategy at Desjardins.
“Domestic spending was lower in the fourth quarter than it was in the third quarter. And that’s particularly concerning, given the fact that the population grew so dramatically during that period.”
The Canadian economy grew at an annualized rate of one per cent in the fourth quarter, which exceeded economists’ expectations and the Bank of Canada’s most recent forecast.
But the headline figure appears to be masking how weak the Canadian economy actually is.
Economic growth during the last three months of the year was driven by global factors, including strong U.S. spending trends which boosted Canadian exports.
Meanwhile, on a per-capita basis, real GDP continued to fall in the fourth quarter.
“This is probably the weakest one-per-cent growth I think any of us have lived through,” said Douglas Porter, BMO’s chief economist.
The Bank of Canada’s aggressive rate hikes are largely responsible for the economic slowdown. Consumers have reeled back spending as many of them face higher borrowing costs on their mortgages and other debt.
Companies are also feeling the pinch, as evidenced by falling business investment.
Perhaps the one outlier in the economic data has been the labour market. According Statistics Canada’s labour force survey, the unemployment rate ticked down to 5.7 per cent in January, hovering around pre-pandemic levels, while annual wage growth remained above five per cent.
However, Mendes says he’s grown skeptical of the labour force survey. He points out that payroll data from Statistics Canada suggests labour market conditions are weakening more meaningfully.
“I think the Bank of Canada is looking at all of these data in totality, and will come to the conclusion that if anything, the labour market has weakened since the time of the January monetary policy report,” he said.
The softening of the Canadian economy, along with improving supply chains, has paved the way to slower price growth.
Canada’s annual inflation rate tumbled to 2.9 per cent in January, back down in the Bank of Canada’s one to three per cent target range.
But the central bank has been clear that it won’t wave the victory flag until inflation is on a sustainable path back to two per cent.
That means inflation would have to continue steadily declining and core measures of inflation — which strip out volatile price movements — would need to follow suit.
Mendes says he’ll be watching closely to see what the central bank says about core measures of inflation, looking for a signal on where it will take its key interest rate.
The Bank of Canada has often pointed out that its two core measures of inflation are well above its target, suggesting price growth is still stubbornly high.
But Mendes’ research suggests those measures are flawed because they strip out too many components, making it harder to gauge where inflation is headed.
“At the least I expect the Bank of Canada to take a more holistic view of the inflation indicators and to acknowledge the progress that we are seeing in taming underlying inflationary pressures. If they don’t, I would take that as a very, very hawkish signal,” he said.
Demands for government intervention in Air Canada labour talks could negatively affect airline competition in Canada, the CEO of travel company Transat AT Inc. said.
“The extension of such an extraordinary intervention to Air Canada would be an undeniable competitive advantage to the detriment of other Canadian airlines,” Annick Guérard told analysts on an earnings conference call on Thursday.
“The time and urgency is now. It is time to restore healthy competition in Canada,” she added.
Air Canada has asked the federal government to be ready to intervene and request arbitration as early as this weekend to avoid disruptions.
Comments on the potential Air Canada pilot strike or lock out came as Transat reported third-quarter financial results.
Guérard recalled Transat’s labour negotiations with its flight attendants earlier this year, which the company said it handled without asking for government intervention.
The airline’s 2,100 flight attendants voted 99 per cent in favour of a strike mandate and twice rejected tentative deals before approving a new collective agreement in late February.
As the collective agreement for Air Transat pilots ends in June next year, Guérard anticipates similar pressure to increase overall wages as seen in Air Canada’s negotiations, but reckons it will come out “as a win, win, win deal.”
“The pilots are preparing on their side, we are preparing on our side and we’re confident that we’re going to come up with a reasonable deal,” she told analysts when asked about the upcoming negotiations.
The parent company of Air Transat reported it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31. The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.
Revenue totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.
On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.
It attributed reduced revenues to lower airline unit revenues, competition, industry-wide overcapacity and economic uncertainty.
Air Transat is also among the airlines facing challenges related to the recall of Pratt & Whitney turbofan jet engines for inspection and repair.
The recall has so far grounded six aircraft, Guérard said on the call.
“We have agreed to financial compensation for grounded aircraft during the 2023-2024 period,” she said. “Alongside this financial compensation, Pratt & Whitney will provide us with two additional spare engines, which we intend to monetize through a sell and lease back transaction.”
Looking ahead, the CEO said she expects consumer demand to remain somewhat uncertain amid high interest rates.
“We are currently seeing ongoing pricing pressure extending into the winter season,” she added. Air Transat is not planning on adding additional aircraft next year but anticipates stability.
“(2025) for us will be much more stable than 2024 in terms of fleet movements and operation, and this will definitely have a positive effect on cost and customer satisfaction as well,” the CEO told analysts.
“We are more and more moving away from all the disruption that we had to go through early in 2024,” she added.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
