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Bank of Canada holds rate steady at 0.25% even as it expects economy to shrink until March – CBC.ca

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The Bank of Canada elected to keep its benchmark interest rate steady at 0.25 per cent on Wednesday, reiterating its pledge to keep it there “until the recovery is well underway.”

Eight times a year, Canada’s central bank meets to set its benchmark interest rate, known as the target for the overnight rate, which impacts the rates that Canadians get on things like mortgages and savings accounts at banks.

All things being equal, the bank slashes its rate when it wants to stimulate borrowing and investing and raises it when it wants to cool things down.

The bank slashed its rate a number of times starting in March of last year, as the COVID-19 pandemic was just starting.

There had been some speculation prior to Wednesday that the bank may decide to cut again from its current level of 0.25 per cent, as virus numbers have been moving higher for several weeks now.

But in a statement, the bank said it’s going to stay the course for now.

“Canada’s economy had strong momentum through to late 2020, but the resurgence of cases and the reintroduction of lockdown measures are a serious setback,” the bank said.

“Growth in the first quarter of 2021 is now expected to be negative,” the bank said, forecasting that GDP will shrink by another 2.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2021, compared to where it was at the end of December. This comes after the economy already shrank by 5.5 per cent last year.

The short term looks gloomier than it did a few months ago, but the bank said it still thinks the deployment of vaccines this year will help power a strong bounceback for the economy. The bank thinks the economy will grow by four per cent for 2021 as a whole, and by another 4.8 next year.

“The outlook for Canada is now stronger and more secure than in the October projection, thanks to earlier-than-expected availability of vaccines and significant ongoing policy stimulus,” the bank said.

No change to QE program for now

The bank decided not to cut its rate, and it also elected to keep its bond-buying program unchanged at $4 billion a week. 

The bond-buying program, known as quantitative easing, is another tool at the bank’s disposal that allows it to stimulate the economy because by buying up government bonds, the bank is lowering interest rates even more — putting more cash into the system that’s available to be spent.

While it says it won’t be scaling back those bond buys for now, slowing that pace of buying is clearly on the table.

We’re moving in the wrong direction right now, so the hole is going to be a little bit deeper.– Tiff Macklem on Canada’s economy

“We’re going to need this program for some time,” Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said in a press release to discuss the bank’s quarterly Monetary Policy Report.

Many economists have been suggesting the bank needs to start tapering those purchases back, simply because the impact is so large on the overall market.

Economist Taylor Schleich with National Bank noted in a report last week that at its current pace of bond buying, the central bank is on track to own half of all Canadian government bonds by the end of the year. “Our bond market simply isn’t large enough to accommodate such a significant absorption of bonds from the central bank,” Schleich said.

At its current pace of buying, the Bank of Canada will soon own half of all of Canada’s government bonds (Scott Galley/CBC)

Macklem left the door open to slowing those purchases at some point. But the expectation that the economy is still shrinking suggests that won’t be happening any time soon.

“We’re moving in the wrong direction right now, so the hole is going to be a little bit deeper, [so] there’s farther to climb back from.”

But, he said, “as we gain confidence in in the strength of our recovery, we will begin to adjust our QE purchases.”

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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