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Bank of Canada maintains 2% inflation target, says rates may stay low for longer

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The Bank of Canada on Monday unveiled an agreement with the federal government to keep its inflation target unchanged at 2% and said it could maintain interest rates lower for longer if needed to help keep employment at optimal levels.

The decision was set out in a new five-year monetary policy framework between the central bank and the finance ministry that takes effect on Jan. 1. The inflation target has been set at the 2% midpoint of a 1%-3% control range for the last 30 years.

“Maintaining a stable environment for the prices Canadians pay is the paramount objective for Canada‘s monetary policy,” Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said in a news conference.

“This is about continuity, and about continuing to do what we know works.”

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The central bank and the ministry decided against a major shift in monetary policy strategy similar to the one adopted by the Federal Reserve last year. Reuters reported the details https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/exclusive-bank-canada-policy-framework-leave-inflation-target-unchanged-source-2021-12-09 of the announcement last week.

The Bank of Canada slashed its key interest rate to a record low of 0.25% last year and says it could start hiking it as soon as next April as the economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic. Annual inflation hit an 18-year high of 4.7% in October.

The central bank said major forces, such as demographics and technological change, were having profound effects on the labor market and making it harder to judge maximum sustainable employment – the level beyond which inflationary pressures arise.

It said it would use the flexibility of the 1%-3% target range to seek maximum sustainable employment when conditions warranted and also deal with structurally low rates, “including sometimes holding its policy interest at a low level for longer than usual.”

‘LARGELY A CONTINUATION’

Analysts noted the bank has taken a flexible approach to cope with the disruptions caused by the pandemic, allowing the labor market and the economy to rebound while supply-chain bottlenecks and rising energy prices pushed up overall costs.

“This is largely a continuation of what they are already doing, in a sense codifying the approach that the bank has been taking during the pandemic,” said Josh Nye, senior economist at RBC Economics.

“It’s not going to change our forecasts for when the Bank of Canada begins to raise interest rates.”

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said the central bank was focused on bringing inflation back down to target without choking off the economic recovery.

Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, said the main message was that the Bank of Canada retained the right to use a lot of flexibility in setting rates.

“When the economy’s under stress, we could have rates low for very long stretches,” he said.

The Bank of Canada, however, acknowledged that maximum sustainable employment is not directly measurable and is determined largely by non-monetary factors that can change through time.

It said neutral interest rates were likely to be lower than in the past, which meant central banks would have less room to cut rates when faced with economic shocks.

(Additional reporting by Fergal Smith and Nichola Saminather in Toronto and Dale Smith in Ottawa;Editing by Matthew Lewis and Paul Simao)

Economy

Japanese government maintains view that economy is in moderate recovery – ForexLive

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Can falling interest rates improve fairness in the economy? – The Globe and Mail

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The ‘poor borrower’ narrative rules in media coverage of the Bank of Canada and high interest rates, and that’s appropriate.

A lot of people have been financially slammed by the rate hikes of the past couple of years, which have made it much more expensive to carry a mortgage, lines of credit and other borrowing. The latest from the Bank of Canada suggests rate cuts will come as soon as this summer, which on the whole would be a welcome development. It’s not just borrowers who need relief – the boarder economy has slowed to a crawl because of high borrowing costs.

But high rates are also a big win for some people. Specifically, those who have little or no debt and who have a significant amount of money sitting in savings products and guaranteed investment certificates. The country’s most well-off people, in other words.

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Lower rates will mean diminished returns for savers and less interest paid by borrowers. It’s a stretch to say lower rates will improve financial inequality, but they do add a little more fairness to our financial system.

Wealth inequality is often presented as the chasm between well-off people able to pay for houses, vehicles, trips and high-end restaurant meals and those who are driving record use of food banks and living in tent cities. High interest rates and inflation have given us more nuance in wealth inequality. People fortunate enough to have bought houses in recent years are staggering as they try to manage mortgage payments that have risen by hundreds of dollars a month. You can see their struggles in rising numbers of late payments and debt defaults.

Rates are expected to fall in a measured, gradual way, which means their impact on financial inequality won’t be an instant gamechanger. But if the Bank of Canada cuts 0.25 of a percentage point off the overnight rate in June and again in July, many borrowers will start noticing how much less interest they’re paying, and savers will find themselves earning less.


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Rob’s personal finance reading list

Snowballs and avalanches

A look at two strategies for paying off debt – the debt avalanche and the debt snowball. I’ll go with the avalanche.

How not to ruin your kitchen countertop

Anyone who has renovated a kitchen lately knows how expensive stone countertops can be. Look after yours by protecting it from a few common kitchen items.

What you need to know about stock market corrections

A helpful explanation of stock market corrections. It seems an opportune time to look at corrections, given how volatile stocks have been lately. Like scouts, investors should always be prepared.

Put that snack back

Food inflation requires more careful grocery shopping. Here’s a roundup of food products – cookies, snacks, ice cream – that don’t taste as good as they used to. Food companies have always adjusted their recipes from time to time. Is this happening more because of inflation’s impact on raw material prices? A U.S. list – most products are available are familiar to Canadians, too.


Ask Rob

Q: I have Tangerine children’s accounts for my kids. Can you suggest a better alternative?

A: The rate on the Tangerine children’s account is 0.8 per cent, which actually compares well to the big banks and their comparable accounts. For kids aged 13 and up, check out something new called the JA Money Card.

Do you have a question for me? Send it my way. Sorry I can’t answer every one personally. Questions and answers are edited for length and clarity.


Tools and guides

A comprehensive guide on how to build a good credit score.


In the social sphere

Social Media: An offbeat way of fighting high food costs

Watch: Is now the hardest time ever to buy a home?

Money-Free Zone: Singer-songwriter Maggie Rogers has a new album called Don’t Forget Me and it’s generating some buzz because it’s a great listen. Smooth vocals and a laid back countryish vibe that hits a faster pace on one of my favourite cuts, Drunk.


More PF from The Globe

– He keeps ‘a few thousand in crisp new bills’ at home – is that a good idea?

– The pension pivot: Employers recognizing that workers need help with debt as much as retirement

– Her bond ETF is ‘a dud and not promising at all’ – should she sell?

– Despite high fees, Canadians remain perplexingly loyal to mutual funds. Here’s why


More Rob Carrick and money coverage

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Economy

LIVE: Freeland joins panel on Indigenous economy – CTV News Montreal

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LIVE: Freeland joins panel on Indigenous economy  CTV News Montreal

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