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Bank of Canada says Factors driving hot Canadian inflation still seem temporary

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The factors influencing Canada‘s red-hot inflation are proving more persistent than expected, but there are “good reasons to believe” they remain temporary, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said on Thursday.

Macklem, answering questions after a speech to a foreign policy think-tank, said Canada‘s central bank continues to expect inflation to remain above its 1-3% control range in 2021, primarily due to base-year effects and supply chain disruptions.

“There’s a bit more persistence than we previously thought. But when you look at it, I think there are good reasons to believe that they are temporary,” he said, when speaking about the factors driving inflation.

Canada‘s annual inflation rate accelerated to 4.1% in August, an 18-year-high. That has led to public outcry over rising prices and prompted worries that those hikes could become persistent.

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“Our job as a central bank is to make sure that one-off increase in prices doesn’t become ongoing inflation… What we’re really looking for is to see any signs of spreading,” Macklem told reporters.

He said while short-term measures of expected inflation had moved up, medium- to longer-term measures of expected inflation had not.

Macklem also said the central bank was watching wage growth carefully. It is not seeing evidence of wages becoming an independent source of inflation, he added.

“I do want to assure Canadians that they can be confident that we will control inflation,” he said.

It is taking longer than expected to work through “frictions” in the labor market, as companies need time to find the right workers, and workers have to find the right jobs.

“We’ve never reopened an economy before. And I think what we’re seeing is reopening an economy is a lot more complicated than closing one,” he said.

Economists said the remarks were consistent with guidance that the Bank of Canada will keep rates on hold until the second half of 2022.

On the central bank’s monetary policy framework, Macklem said Canada needs something “that is robust to a broad range of circumstances.”

The bank is reviewing its inflation-targeting framework, in place since 1991. The current agreement with Ottawa expires at the end of this year.

The U.S. Federal Reserve switched to a loose form of average inflation targeting last year.

(Additional reporting by Steve Scherer and David Ljunggren in OttawaEditing by Frances Kerry, Paul Simao and Andrea Ricci)

Economy

Japanese government maintains view that economy is in moderate recovery – ForexLive

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Economy

Can falling interest rates improve fairness in the economy? – The Globe and Mail

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The ‘poor borrower’ narrative rules in media coverage of the Bank of Canada and high interest rates, and that’s appropriate.

A lot of people have been financially slammed by the rate hikes of the past couple of years, which have made it much more expensive to carry a mortgage, lines of credit and other borrowing. The latest from the Bank of Canada suggests rate cuts will come as soon as this summer, which on the whole would be a welcome development. It’s not just borrowers who need relief – the boarder economy has slowed to a crawl because of high borrowing costs.

But high rates are also a big win for some people. Specifically, those who have little or no debt and who have a significant amount of money sitting in savings products and guaranteed investment certificates. The country’s most well-off people, in other words.

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Lower rates will mean diminished returns for savers and less interest paid by borrowers. It’s a stretch to say lower rates will improve financial inequality, but they do add a little more fairness to our financial system.

Wealth inequality is often presented as the chasm between well-off people able to pay for houses, vehicles, trips and high-end restaurant meals and those who are driving record use of food banks and living in tent cities. High interest rates and inflation have given us more nuance in wealth inequality. People fortunate enough to have bought houses in recent years are staggering as they try to manage mortgage payments that have risen by hundreds of dollars a month. You can see their struggles in rising numbers of late payments and debt defaults.

Rates are expected to fall in a measured, gradual way, which means their impact on financial inequality won’t be an instant gamechanger. But if the Bank of Canada cuts 0.25 of a percentage point off the overnight rate in June and again in July, many borrowers will start noticing how much less interest they’re paying, and savers will find themselves earning less.


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Rob’s personal finance reading list

Snowballs and avalanches

A look at two strategies for paying off debt – the debt avalanche and the debt snowball. I’ll go with the avalanche.

How not to ruin your kitchen countertop

Anyone who has renovated a kitchen lately knows how expensive stone countertops can be. Look after yours by protecting it from a few common kitchen items.

What you need to know about stock market corrections

A helpful explanation of stock market corrections. It seems an opportune time to look at corrections, given how volatile stocks have been lately. Like scouts, investors should always be prepared.

Put that snack back

Food inflation requires more careful grocery shopping. Here’s a roundup of food products – cookies, snacks, ice cream – that don’t taste as good as they used to. Food companies have always adjusted their recipes from time to time. Is this happening more because of inflation’s impact on raw material prices? A U.S. list – most products are available are familiar to Canadians, too.


Ask Rob

Q: I have Tangerine children’s accounts for my kids. Can you suggest a better alternative?

A: The rate on the Tangerine children’s account is 0.8 per cent, which actually compares well to the big banks and their comparable accounts. For kids aged 13 and up, check out something new called the JA Money Card.

Do you have a question for me? Send it my way. Sorry I can’t answer every one personally. Questions and answers are edited for length and clarity.


Tools and guides

A comprehensive guide on how to build a good credit score.


In the social sphere

Social Media: An offbeat way of fighting high food costs

Watch: Is now the hardest time ever to buy a home?

Money-Free Zone: Singer-songwriter Maggie Rogers has a new album called Don’t Forget Me and it’s generating some buzz because it’s a great listen. Smooth vocals and a laid back countryish vibe that hits a faster pace on one of my favourite cuts, Drunk.


More PF from The Globe

– He keeps ‘a few thousand in crisp new bills’ at home – is that a good idea?

– The pension pivot: Employers recognizing that workers need help with debt as much as retirement

– Her bond ETF is ‘a dud and not promising at all’ – should she sell?

– Despite high fees, Canadians remain perplexingly loyal to mutual funds. Here’s why


More Rob Carrick and money coverage

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Even more coverage from Rob Carrick:

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Economy

LIVE: Freeland joins panel on Indigenous economy – CTV News Montreal

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LIVE: Freeland joins panel on Indigenous economy  CTV News Montreal

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