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Bank of Canada worried government spending could impede inflation fight

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More rate hikes may be required, central bankers say in summary of deliberations

The Bank of Canada’s decision to leave its key overnight interest rate at five per cent in October was driven by factors including conflict in the Middle East that risks keeping oil prices elevated and federal and provincial government spending that “could get in the way of returning inflation to target.”

The six-member Governing Council, led by central bank governor Tiff Macklem, began meeting Oct. 17 and discussed a number of concerns including the risk of inflation expectations becoming entrenched. According to a statement of deliberations released Nov. 8, they also concluded that continued wage increases at the current pace of four per cent to five per cent would be “inconsistent” with restoring price stability.

However, the central bankers also discussed signs that raising interest rates over the past year and a half was working to slow the economy and tamp down inflation.

Consumer spending has been weaker than expected, for example, with household credit growth declining “substantially” as Canadians adjust to higher borrowing costs. 

Third-quarter assessments also suggested weakness in spending on housing and durable goods with a spread to services. Meanwhile, they anticipated that exports would stall as foreign demand softened, with businesses reporting softer investment intentions due to elevated funding costs and weaker sales prospects. 

But while inflation has begun to moderate in certain areas including food, several factors were standing in the way of the disinflationary process, the central bankers concluded, according to the statement of deliberations. These included higher gas prices driven by elevated global oil prices, a main factor in the rebound of inflation since June.

Shelter price inflation, meanwhile, was running around six per cent, partly due to rising mortgage interest costs following interest rate increases but also evident in rent and other housing-related costs. 

The central bankers said Canada’s ongoing “structural shortage” of housing was getting in the way of a typical scenario where higher interest rates normally exert downward pressure on house prices and other costs that are closely linked to house prices, such as maintenance, taxes and insurance. In addition, the rapid increase in Canada’s population had added to the existing imbalance between demand and supply for housing, the central bankers said. 

They also concluded that near-term inflation expectations and wage growth remained elevated, and while corporate pricing behaviour was “normalizing,” it was doing so only gradually.

“Together, these factors were contributing to persistence in inflation,” the central bankers concluded, noting that core inflation has been stuck in a range of 3.5 per cent to four per cent for the past year.

As a result, Governing Council members revised their forecast for inflation upwards in the near term.

“The lack of downward momentum in underlying inflation was a source of considerable concern,” according to the statement of deliberations, which said the two possible explanations for this persistence were that the transmission of monetary policy actions through to inflation required more time, or that monetary policy was not yet restrictive enough to relieve price pressures.

“Members discussed whether the stickiness in core inflation measures reflected the fact that excess demand remained in the system or that inflation could be becoming entrenched.” 

If that is the case, the central bankers acknowledged that further rates hikes would likely be required to restore price stability.

Despite these concerns, with a weaker growth outlook and more excess supply, the central bankers continued to expect inflation would return to the two per cent target in 2025.

During their deliberations, the Governing Council members also discussed aggregate spending plans of federal and provincial governments, which are projected to increase at an annual pace of roughly 2.5 per cent in 2024, which could make it more difficult to rein in inflation to the central bank’s two per cent target. 

“If all those plans are realized, this would contribute materially to growth over the next year,” the statement of deliberations said. “By adding to demand at a faster pace than the growth of supply, government spending could get in the way of returning inflation to target.”

The Bank of Canada paused interest rate hikes on Oct. 25 for the second consecutive time, keeping the key overnight rate at five per cent. 

Macklem acknowledged then that the runway for a soft landing was narrowing, with low growth forecasts for the coming quarters that could easily turn negative. 

Since the latest rate decision was made, certain early economic indicators for the third quarter have suggested the Canadian economy has slowed. Statistics Canada released early estimates that suggested gross domestic product was flat or marginally down in July, August and September, with updated figures expected Nov. 30.

The central bankers spent a considerable amount of time discussing global financial conditions at the meetings before their latest rate decision, including a noteworthy rise in bond yields, according to the statement of deliberations.

 

Among the possible reasons for this rise, they concluded, were market assessments that central bank policy rates would remain higher for longer, and investors seeking greater compensation for volatility in long-term rates. They also considered whether continued deficit financing in the United States was leading to a large supply of U.S. Treasuries, together with fewer buyers and quantitative tightening, and the possibility that the neutral rate may be drifting higher.  

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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