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Bank of Japan Takes Less Gloomy View on Economy, Stands Pat – Yahoo Canada Finance

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BOJ’s Kuroda Vows to Closely Coordinate With Suga Government

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(Bloomberg) — Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank will keep close coordination with the new government led by Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga to pull the pandemic-hit economy out of its slump.

Kuroda, speaking to reporters Thursday, sought to reassure investors that the BOJ will keep easing in pursuit of its 2% inflation target and maintain its close relationship with the government after its first leadership change in almost eight years.

The BOJ earlier stood pat on its key interest rate and its asset purchases, a result expected by 95% of 44 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The bank also upgraded its economic assessment for the first time since the virus hit, reflecting a bottoming of Japan’s slump.

Suga, who was elected Wednesday for Japan’s top job, has indicated he sees no need for any immediate changes in BOJ policies that have helped keep financial markets stable and get credit to companies amid Covid-19.

The Tough Job Facing Japan’s Next Prime Minister in Five Charts

The BOJ’s decision and Kuroda’s comments reinforced the message that little change was likely for the time being, barring any sharp worsening of the pandemic or a run on markets.

“The BOJ will continue to solidly cooperate with the government as it manages policy,” the BOJ governor said, adding that the current crisis shouldn’t stop structural reforms, an area where Suga has placed emphasis.

“The need for deregulation is widely recognized and the BOJ stands ready to continue to provide a sort of safety net through monetary easing,” Kuroda said, indicating his willingness to support Suga’s goals without waiting for a complete economic recovery.

What Bloomberg’s Economist Says

“The economy is going the right way for the Bank of Japan — prompting it to upgrade its assessment for the first time since the pandemic struck. A recovery is underway, and the economy has lifted off a trough, but while the BOJ kept the parameters of its massive stimulus unchanged (as expected), it can hardly let its guard down.”

Yuki Masujima, economist

Click here to read more.

At its meeting, the BOJ raised its assessment of the economy, saying it had started to pick up with activity resuming gradually, though the pace of improvement was only likely to be moderate with the pandemic continuing to impact countries worldwide.

Analysts see gross domestic product rebounding an annualized 15.1% this quarter, a big jump, but not enough to make up for the record contraction in the three months through June.

Kuroda also went out of his way to defend the importance of the BOJ’s 2% inflation target. Temporary price impacts from the government’s stimulus measures aren’t overly concerning, he said, but the bank will not hesitate to ease if it sees the labor market hurting prices.

Suga Keeps Pressure on Japan’s Telecoms Ahead of Elections

Suga’s vocal campaign against high cell phone fees for consumers has been seen as a sign that he’s less concerned about inflation than his predecessor, Shinzo Abe.

The BOJ decision came just hours after the U.S. Federal Reserve unveiled its latest policy guidance, committing to inflation that averages 2% over time and forecasting near-zero rates to continue through 2023.

“The BOJ is already acutely aware that it can’t raise rates until at least 2023 or before the Fed,” said economist Yoshimasa Maruyama at SMBC Nikko Securities. “The yen isn’t going to shoot up significantly because of any policy difference between the Fed and BOJ as they are basically doing the same thing.”

(Adds Kuroda comment on supporting structural reform.)

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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