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Bank of Japan Takes Less Gloomy View on Economy, Stands Pat – Yahoo Canada Finance

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BOJ’s Kuroda Vows to Closely Coordinate With Suga Government

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(Bloomberg) — Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank will keep close coordination with the new government led by Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga to pull the pandemic-hit economy out of its slump.

Kuroda, speaking to reporters Thursday, sought to reassure investors that the BOJ will keep easing in pursuit of its 2% inflation target and maintain its close relationship with the government after its first leadership change in almost eight years.

The BOJ earlier stood pat on its key interest rate and its asset purchases, a result expected by 95% of 44 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The bank also upgraded its economic assessment for the first time since the virus hit, reflecting a bottoming of Japan’s slump.

Suga, who was elected Wednesday for Japan’s top job, has indicated he sees no need for any immediate changes in BOJ policies that have helped keep financial markets stable and get credit to companies amid Covid-19.

The Tough Job Facing Japan’s Next Prime Minister in Five Charts

The BOJ’s decision and Kuroda’s comments reinforced the message that little change was likely for the time being, barring any sharp worsening of the pandemic or a run on markets.

“The BOJ will continue to solidly cooperate with the government as it manages policy,” the BOJ governor said, adding that the current crisis shouldn’t stop structural reforms, an area where Suga has placed emphasis.

“The need for deregulation is widely recognized and the BOJ stands ready to continue to provide a sort of safety net through monetary easing,” Kuroda said, indicating his willingness to support Suga’s goals without waiting for a complete economic recovery.

What Bloomberg’s Economist Says

“The economy is going the right way for the Bank of Japan — prompting it to upgrade its assessment for the first time since the pandemic struck. A recovery is underway, and the economy has lifted off a trough, but while the BOJ kept the parameters of its massive stimulus unchanged (as expected), it can hardly let its guard down.”

Yuki Masujima, economist

Click here to read more.

At its meeting, the BOJ raised its assessment of the economy, saying it had started to pick up with activity resuming gradually, though the pace of improvement was only likely to be moderate with the pandemic continuing to impact countries worldwide.

Analysts see gross domestic product rebounding an annualized 15.1% this quarter, a big jump, but not enough to make up for the record contraction in the three months through June.

Kuroda also went out of his way to defend the importance of the BOJ’s 2% inflation target. Temporary price impacts from the government’s stimulus measures aren’t overly concerning, he said, but the bank will not hesitate to ease if it sees the labor market hurting prices.

Suga Keeps Pressure on Japan’s Telecoms Ahead of Elections

Suga’s vocal campaign against high cell phone fees for consumers has been seen as a sign that he’s less concerned about inflation than his predecessor, Shinzo Abe.

The BOJ decision came just hours after the U.S. Federal Reserve unveiled its latest policy guidance, committing to inflation that averages 2% over time and forecasting near-zero rates to continue through 2023.

“The BOJ is already acutely aware that it can’t raise rates until at least 2023 or before the Fed,” said economist Yoshimasa Maruyama at SMBC Nikko Securities. “The yen isn’t going to shoot up significantly because of any policy difference between the Fed and BOJ as they are basically doing the same thing.”

(Adds Kuroda comment on supporting structural reform.)

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Why falling immigration isn't that bad for the economy during COVID-19 – Yahoo Canada Finance

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COVID-19 travel restrictions have put a big dent in immigration, widely seen as something the economy relies on, but the negative effects aren’t as bad as they might seem.

The latest government numbers show 13,645 fewer permanent residents came to Canada in July, down 63 per cent from the same month last year. April and June were similarly weak periods, making the likelihood of reaching the federal government’s target of 341,000 less likely.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="For a country like Canada with an aging population and relatively low population growth, immigration is needed to counter demographic headwinds. But the pandemic’s effects more generally, far outweigh the specific negative effects of lower immigration.” data-reactid=”18″>For a country like Canada with an aging population and relatively low population growth, immigration is needed to counter demographic headwinds. But the pandemic’s effects more generally, far outweigh the specific negative effects of lower immigration.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="“I think we need to keep the incremental impact of new immigration on economic growth in perspective. Even at its maximum pace in recent years, it was adding roughly 1 per cent to population per year and roughly the same to the labour force.” BMO chief economist Doug Porter told Yahoo Finance Canada.&nbsp;” data-reactid=”19″>“I think we need to keep the incremental impact of new immigration on economic growth in perspective. Even at its maximum pace in recent years, it was adding roughly 1 per cent to population per year and roughly the same to the labour force.” BMO chief economist Doug Porter told Yahoo Finance Canada

“So, even a complete shutdown of immigration would (roughly) shave 1 percentage point from growth (or a bit less). Not small by any means, but that compares with what could be a 6 per cent drop in GDP (OECD said -5.8 per cent for this year, we are looking at -5.5 per cent).”

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Around 1.1 million Canadians are still out of work, so immigrant workers aren’t exactly in high demand these days.” data-reactid=”21″>Around 1.1 million Canadians are still out of work, so immigrant workers aren’t exactly in high demand these days.

“Overall, given the realities of COVID and the now-soft demand for labour, the cool down in immigration by itself will not be particularly harmful — and certainly less so than it would have been say a year ago.” said Porter.

Long term effects without immigration

Pedro Antunes, the Conference Board of Canada’s chief economist, also thinks the effects are mitigated in the short-term but that doesn’t mean the economy will be totally unscathed.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="“Some sectors will be affected because immigration drives consumer spending, demand for housing, and other services directly related to increased population,” he told Yahoo Finance Canada.” data-reactid=”25″>“Some sectors will be affected because immigration drives consumer spending, demand for housing, and other services directly related to increased population,” he told Yahoo Finance Canada.

However, he believes it’s more important to look at the long term repercussions of reduced immigration.

“Canada’s underlying capacity is dependent on private and public investment, adoption of technology and the number of workers (and the skills of those workers). We know from our prior research that without immigration, our labour force would be flat or declining (since exiting baby-boomers outnumber school leavers),” said Antunes.

“If immigration levels are reduced over a few years (we think 2020 and 2021 at least) the result is a long-lasting impact on our potential (or productive capacity).”

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Jessy Bains is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on Twitter&nbsp;@jessysbains.” data-reactid=”29″>Jessy Bains is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on Twitter @jessysbains.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Download the Yahoo Finance app, available for&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;and&nbsp;Android.” data-reactid=”30″>Download the Yahoo Finance app, available for Apple and Android.

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EU looks to fast 5G, supercomputers to boost virus-hit economy – TheChronicleHerald.ca

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By Foo Yun Chee

BRUSSELS (Reuters) – The European Commission on Friday urged the 27-country bloc to work together to speed up the rollout of fibre and 5G networks to boost the region’s virus-hit economy and secure its technology autonomy.

EU countries should develop a best practices toolbox by March 30 with the aim of cutting cost and red tape, provide timely access to 5G radio spectrum and allow for more cross-border coordination for radio spectrum for 5G services, the EU executive said.

The coronavirus outbreak showed how important internet services and 5G are, European digital chief Margrethe Vestager said.

“We have seen the current crisis highlight the importance of access to very high-speed internet for businesses, public services and citizens, but also to accelerate the pace towards 5G,” she said in a statement. “We must therefore work together towards fast network rollout without any further delays.”

The Commission also proposed a recommendation to boost research and activities to develop new supercomputing technologies.

“Keeping up in the international technological race is a priority, and Europe has both the know-how and the political will to play a leading role,” Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton said in a statement.

The Commission is investing 8 billion euros($9.46 billion)in the next generation of supercomputers.

(Reporting by Foo Yun Chee; Editing by Tomasz Janowski)

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Charting the Global Economy: Fed Signals Rates on Hold for Years – BNN

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(Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve signaled it will keep its benchmark interest rate near zero through 2023 to help the world’s largest economy recover from the coronavirus pandemic.

Cheap borrowing costs are fueling demand for U.S. housing and leaving builders brimming with optimism in the process. In China, retail sales and industrial output are on the mend, while in the U.K., the virus-related shutdowns are having a large negative impact on youth employment.

Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week, offering insight into the latest developments in the global economy:

World

The global economic slump won’t be as sharp as previously feared this year, though the recovery is losing pace and will need support from governments and central banks for some time yet, according to the OECD.

U.S.

The Federal Reserve’s so-called dot plot, which the central bank uses to signal its outlook for the path of interest rates, shows that officials expect no change in policy this year and borrowing costs near zero through 2023.

Homebuilder optimism rose to a record in September, with low mortgage rates driving a housing boom that has boosted the pandemic economy, National Association of Home Builders data show.

Europe

The U.K.’s lockdown hit young workers particularly hard, with employment in the 16-24 age category falling by 156,000. That may reflect the share of young workers in hotels, restaurants and bars, a sector devastated by the pandemic.

Asia

China’s economic recovery from Covid-19 accelerated, spurred by a rebound in consumption as virus restrictions eased and larger-than-expected gains in industrial output. Retail sales rose for the first time this year in August, by 0.5% from a year earlier, while industrial production expanded 5.6%, against a forecast of 5.1%.

Emerging Markets

Scoring 75 emerging-market and frontier economies, Bloomberg Economics finds that Asia leads in getting closer to pre-outbreak norms, with some countries in Africa and Eastern Europe also outperforming. Latin America is still struggling to contain the pandemic, with 18 of the bottom 25 in the ranking in Latin America or the Caribbean.

Saudi Arabia’s crude exports dropped to the lowest since at least 2016 in the second quarter as it led a campaign alongside Russia to curb oil production following a coronavirus-induced price crash. While the effort yielded a stark turnaround in prices in May and June, Saudi revenue from oil sales still plunged almost 62% in the three-month period from a year earlier.

South Africa is among the countries with the highest percentage of smokers globally, with almost one in every three adults lighting up. So when the government banned cigarette sales for about five months of the nation’s Covid-19 lockdown, some 90% found a workaround.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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