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Banking turmoil is adding to sense of looming economic ‘precipice.’ What’s next?

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The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the ensuing fallout impacting financial institutions in the United States and Europe this week is adding to the sense of a looming economic “precipice,” experts say.

Although they don’t see any signs of trouble for Canada’s banking system so far, they add Canadians will still likely feel the sting of the broader crisis on top of existing stressors like inflation and high interest rates, along with the rising cost of food and gas.

“I think there’s just a sense that we’re getting close to this precipice where something is going to break,” Kevin Page, president and CEO of the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy and a former parliamentary budget officer, told Mercedes Stephenson on The West Block Sunday.

That could mean a recession or at least a “significant economic slowdown,” he added, though it remains to be seen if it will be a softer landing than what was seen during the 2008 financial crisis.

“I think this is a global issue,” Page said. “One way or another, I think we will feel it.”

The past week saw dramatic market turmoil after midsize U.S. lenders Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank imploded, with assurances from world leaders and policymakers that the global banking system is safe failing to calm fears about broader troubles in the sector.

Major U.S. banks had to swoop in with a US$30 billion lifeline for smaller lender First Republic, while all banks in the country sought a record US$153 billion in combined emergency liquidity from the Federal Reserve in recent days.

In Europe, Credit Suisse was forced to tap US$54 billion in Swiss central bank funding to shore up its own plunging stock price, becoming the largest bank ensnared in the crisis.

Both the Credit Suisse and First Republic interventions did little to help, with both stocks continuing to tumble into the weekend.

 

Lisa Raitt, a former Conservative MP and transport minister who now serves as vice-chair of global investment banking at CIBC, told Stephenson Canada’s banking system is more diversified in its holdings than SVB and other smaller banks, which should give Canadians confidence their deposits are secure.

But she noted the extraordinary speed at which dwindling investor confidence led to the bank run that sparked the broader upheaval, making it hard to predict what may happen next.

“In the past, a bank run could possibly take a number of hours, a couple of days, maybe some weeks. In this case, it was almost instantaneous,” she said.

“That is something that we have to watch in terms of regulation and in terms of what happens in our banking sector.”

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The mounting feeling of economic disaster comes as Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland is set to table the government’s latest budget on March 28.

Freeland’s office has reaffirmed the government’s commitment to “prudent fiscal management” in this year’s budget. That’s after she said in the fall economic statement in November 2022 that the government would “keep its powder dry” and reserve major spending items for the budget in the spring.

Inflation has shown signs of cooling this year due to the Bank of Canada’s aggressive hikes of its policy interest rate. For the first time since it began raising lending rates last March, the Bank of Canada held its rate at 4.5 per cent on March. Canada’s annual inflation rate has cooled from highs of 8.1 per cent in mid-2022 to 5.9 per cent as of January.

Both Page and Raitt said the challenge for Freeland will be presenting a budget that doesn’t reverse that trend with too much relief for Canadians while also addressing the needs of the future, from ongoing assistance for the war in Ukraine to boosting competitiveness in the growing green economy.

“There’s no question Canadians are hurting … so there may be some relief,” Raitt said.

“(But) the difficulty with sending more cheques out and increasing the amount of money in people’s pockets, of course, is that they’re able to spend more. They’re able to buy more. And that actually does add to the possibility of inflation sticking around for a while.”

Page said it will be important for the government’s overall fiscal policy to match the monetary policy being set by the Bank of Canada and work together to drive down inflationary pressures.

Yet some spending that could be seen as inflationary may be inevitable, he added, including the promised boost in health-care spending and addressing NDP priorities like dental care in order to keep the supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberals alive.

That doesn’t mean the Liberals can’t achieve a balanced budget within “the next three to four years,” Page said — provided that soft landing occurs.

“It’s a complicated budget environment,” he said.

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Trump and Musk promise economic 'hardship' — and voters are noticing – MSNBC

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Trump and Musk promise economic ‘hardship’ — and voters are noticing  MSNBC

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Economy stalled in August, Q3 growth looks to fall short of Bank of Canada estimates

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OTTAWA – The Canadian economy was flat in August as high interest rates continued to weigh on consumers and businesses, while a preliminary estimate suggests it grew at an annualized rate of one per cent in the third quarter.

Statistics Canada’s gross domestic product report Thursday says growth in services-producing industries in August were offset by declines in goods-producing industries.

The manufacturing sector was the largest drag on the economy, followed by utilities, wholesale and trade and transportation and warehousing.

The report noted shutdowns at Canada’s two largest railways contributed to a decline in transportation and warehousing.

A preliminary estimate for September suggests real gross domestic product grew by 0.3 per cent.

Statistics Canada’s estimate for the third quarter is weaker than the Bank of Canada’s projection of 1.5 per cent annualized growth.

The latest economic figures suggest ongoing weakness in the Canadian economy, giving the central bank room to continue cutting interest rates.

But the size of that cut is still uncertain, with lots more data to come on inflation and the economy before the Bank of Canada’s next rate decision on Dec. 11.

“We don’t think this will ring any alarm bells for the (Bank of Canada) but it puts more emphasis on their fears around a weakening economy,” TD economist Marc Ercolao wrote.

The central bank has acknowledged repeatedly the economy is weak and that growth needs to pick back up.

Last week, the Bank of Canada delivered a half-percentage point interest rate cut in response to inflation returning to its two per cent target.

Governor Tiff Macklem wouldn’t say whether the central bank will follow up with another jumbo cut in December and instead said the central bank will take interest rate decisions one a time based on incoming economic data.

The central bank is expecting economic growth to rebound next year as rate cuts filter through the economy.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 31, 2024

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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StatCan latest wealth survey shows stark disparity between homeowners, renters

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TORONTO – Statistics Canada‘s latest financial security survey shows a stark disparity between the wealth of homeowners and renters, even as it fails to capture the true scale what’s owned by Canada’s richest families.

The survey, conducted only every few years, shows home-owning families whose main earner was 55 to 64, and who had an employer-sponsored pension, had a median net worth of $1.4 million in 2023. Renters without a pension plan in the age group had a median net worth of $11,900.

Home ownership was the main factor in the difference, as those who owned their home but didn’t have a pension had a median net worth of $914,000, while those with a pension but did not own had a median net worth of $359,000.

The data released Tuesday also shows Canadians of all income brackets are trying to get into real estate, said Dan Skilleter, director of policy at economic inclusion non-profit Social Capital Partners.

“The most striking numbers they have in here are about just the growth of real estate as an asset class,” he said.

“So it’s clear everyone’s been getting signals about how important that is, and I think that is dysfunctional, and has been leading to an unsustainable situation where real estate has become an essential stepping-stone to really have any financial security in Canada.”

The picture in the report was similar for families whose main earner was under 35, as the median net worth of those who own their principal residence was $457,100, compared with $44,000 for those who don’t.

The gap for young families is even larger than at first glance though, as Statistics Canada notes that of that $44,000 net worth, an increasing amount is due to renters owning real estate that is not their principal residence.

It noted that of renters without pensions, 15 per cent had a net worth above $150,000 in 2023, compared with five per cent in 2019, as more buy into real estate.

Overall, the survey found the median net worth of Canadian households was $519,700, up 57 per cent from 2019 when it was last conducted.

The median wealth of households under 35 was $159,100, up from $56,400 in 2019, while the 55 to 64 category was the richest at $873,400, up from $797,000 four years earlier.

The survey involved a 45-minute questionnaire sent to a sampling of almost 40,000 homes to provide a detailed view of what families own and what debts they have.

“It’s really the only survey we have where the government gets to peer into the full financial story of families,” Skilleter said.

The survey, however, has a significant blind spot for Canada’s wealthiest. Statistics Canada divides the survey in tiers to make sure various household categories are represented, but the highest tier is the wealthiest five per cent in Canada, meaning anyone above about $2.4 million for the 2019 survey.

The broad top category means the top one per cent, and 0.1 per cent, are hardly captured, Skilleter said.

“What’s not part of the survey is to take a broader look at the Canadian economy and see: is wealth concentration in general getting worse or getting better,” he said.

“And much to my dismay, they can’t even take a stab at answering that question, because they don’t set up their survey to even have a good chance of getting a single billionaire or 100 millionaire to take the survey.”

The richest family in the 2012 version of the survey had a net worth of $23.7 million, and $27.3 million in the 2016 report, while Credit Suisse estimates there are more than 5,500 Canadians with a net worth of more than $50 million, including 120 with a net worth of more than $500 million, Skilleter noted in an April report.

Statistics Canada said the share of wealth held by the top one per cent will be understated in this data source. Skilleter notes that the U.S. specifically carves out a tier for billionaires to make sure they’re represented in the results of its wealth survey, which helps to show the economic inequality in that country.

Canada has looked more equal based on the data from the survey, but it can be misleading.

Data from the 2019 survey was used to estimate Canada’s top one per cent held about 13.7 per cent of wealth, and the 0.1 per cent held 2.8 per cent. But combining the survey with outside data like the Forbes rich list, the Parliamentary Budget Officer estimated that the top one per cent held 24.8 per cent, and the top 0.1 per cent held 11.2 per cent of overall wealth.

“We’re not even being made aware of the ways in which ownership of capital is dramatically increasing the fortunes of some,” Skilleter said.

“That would give rise to a more frank conversation about the different ways that public policy…could intervene and make people’s lives better.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 29, 2024.

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