With inflation at record highs, the Bank of Canada has increased interest rates much faster than many expected.
With inflation at record highs, the Bank of Canada has increased interest rates much faster than many expected.
Now that the cost of borrowing money has increased, real estate market sales and prices are increasing at a lower rate, and in some cases, dropping. These types of market conditions haven’t been seen in Canada in years, and some people are getting caught making huge financial mistakes.
In a hot real estate market, homeowners looking to upgrade would typically buy a new home before listing their current one. Since homes in desirable areas would sell quickly, most homeowners would be confident that they’d be able to unload their homes for the price they need before their new home closes.
With current market conditions, buyers have become cautious. Getting multiple bids over asking is not as common, and it may take longer to sell. This presents a huge problem for sellers who need the proceeds from the sale of their current home to fund their new one.
Unfortunately, there’s no easy solution. Waiting things out likely won’t make things any better since the markets won’t turn around overnight. Plus, you’re on a deadline since you need to close on the home you agreed to buy.
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You could just accept the highest offer and try to find a way to make up the difference. For example, you could see if an alternative lender is willing to loan you more money. If you went this route, you’d probably have to pay a higher interest rate since the lender is taking on more risk.
Alternatively, you could forfeit your deposit on the new home and walk away with the loss. That said, that seller does have the right to sue you for damages if they can’t sell the home again for what you agreed to pay. If the house sells for less than you offered, you could be legally on the hook for the difference.
To avoid this mess completely, you should include a financing condition that gives you time to sell your current property with a minimum set price. Sellers may criticize that condition, but it’s in your best interests to protect yourself as sale prices are no longer certain.
Many lenders will require an appraisal on the home you’ve purchased before releasing the funds for your mortgage. Basically, appraisals are based on current market values, not what you offered for the home.
In some situations, the appraiser might say that the property is not worth as much as you agreed to pay. Suppose you paid $700,000, but the appraiser says your home is only worth $650,000. You’d be short $50,000 on your mortgage. Coming up with that amount is no easy task.
During a hot market, buyers would often ask for another appraisal. This may seem like a pointless exercise, but it wouldn’t be unusual for new sales in the area to be higher than what you paid. The new appraiser could then justify the price you paid, which would allow you to get all the funds you need.
With current market conditions, appraisers and lenders are likely to be more cautious. There’s no guarantee that your appraisal will come back at the price you paid. To minimize your risk, consider bidding well below what you’ve been approved for. So, if your lender says you’ll qualify for a $1,000,000 home, consider not bidding more than $900,000, as it gives you a buffer to work with.
Just about every lender has an online calculator where you can estimate the mortgage you’ll be approved for. These calculators also allow you to adjust the interest rate to see how any changes would affect your payments.
While this is a convenient and quick way to calculate affordability, it’s simply a pre-qualification and is essentially meaningless since you haven’t been approved for anything yet.
With a pre-approved mortgage, lenders will formally run your numbers. They’ll look at your income, credit score, debt loads, and more to determine precisely how much they’re willing to lend you. They’ll also share the interest rates they’re willing to extend you for fixed and variable mortgages. Since this is a formal approval process, lenders will be able to hold the rate for 90 to 120 days. This will allow you to shop in confidence, knowing that you have the financing in place.
Some people assume that a pre-qualification is the same as a pre-approval, but that’s simply not the case. Getting pre-approved is basically a promise from the lender. The last thing you want is to buy a home and then find out you don’t have the financing in place. That could leave you scrambling to find an alternate lender.
If you were looking to buy a home last year, it wouldn’t have been uncommon to find a fixed-rate mortgage for around two per cent. Suppose you were looking to get a $700,000 closed mortgage on a five-year term with a 25-year amortization (payment) schedule. Your monthly payment would be $2,964.16.
However, these days, fixed-rate mortgage rates are hovering around four per cent. That would make your monthly payment $3,682.14. That’s more than a $700 difference. You could go with a variable-rate mortgage, which will change based on market conditions. At the moment, you would pay less interest than a fixed-rate mortgage. However, with interest rates expected to keep rising, you might end up paying more than a fixed-rate mortgage in the long run.
If you haven’t gotten a pre-approved mortgage or updated your budget recently, you might be shocked to see your monthly carrying costs with the higher rates. The amount you may have been able to afford a year ago may no longer be the case now. That’s why many potential homeowners have become more cautious when bidding, which has resulted in the current market slowdown.
While the real estate market will sort itself out eventually, it may be time for caution, due to all the money on the line. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t buy or sell real estate during this time, you just need to take some extra steps to protect yourself from a major financial mistake.
This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.
Real estate home sales dollar values in August 2023 dropped off from the previous year in the qathet region.
“Sales activity was about on par with levels from August 2021 and 2022 and continued trending below the average for this time of year,” said Neil Frost, president of the Powell River Sunshine Coast Real Estate Board. “New listings, on the other hand, have been coming in very strong and have kept overall supply from moving back towards historically low levels. Our market remains in balanced territory and prices continue to ease from last year, making this a more opportune time for potential buyers to wade back in and test the waters.”
In the single-family residence category, in August 2023, there were 20 homes sold, valued at $13,281,150, compared to 29 units sold, valued at $22,802,350, in August 2022.
There were three sales in the mobiles and manufactured homes category, valued at $817,000, in August 2023, compared to three sales, valued at $663,900, in August 2022.
In the condos, apartments and duplexes category, there were six sales, totalling $2,422,900, in August 2023, compared to three sales, valued at $1,303,500, in August 2022.
Totals for residential sales indicate 29 units sold, valued at $16,422,900, in August 2023, compared to 35 units sold, valued at $24,769,750, in August 2022.
On the nonresidential side, there were eight vacant land properties sold in August 2023, valued at $1,678,000, compared to three properties, valued at $734,030, in August 2022.
In the industrial, commercial and institutional category, there was one sale, valued at $2,800, in August 2022, and none in August 2023.
Totals for nonresidential were eight units, valued at $1,668,000, in August 2023, compared to four units, valued at $736,830, in August 2022.
Grand totals show 37 units sold in August 2023, valued at $18,199,050, compared to 39 units, valued at $736,830, in August 2022.
In terms of average monthly selling price in the single-family homes category, the value in August 2023 was $664,058, with an average of 74 days on the market, compared to $786,288, in August 2022, with an average of 37 days on the market. This is a 15.5 per cent drop in average price.
Regarding new listings, on the residential side, there were 59 new listings, and on the nonresidential side, 12, for a total of 71 new listings in August 2023. In terms of active listings at the end of the month, there were 173 residential listings and 85 nonresidential listings.
According to statistics from the Canadian Real Estate Association, on a year-to-date basis, home sales totalled 190 units over the first eight months of the year, which was a large decline of 21.2 per cent from the same period in 2022.
“Home sales are starting to settle back into a trend of below-normal activity following an unexpected surge in the spring,” said British Columbia Real Estate Association chief economist Brendon Ogmundson. “However, sales are in a much stronger place than expected given current mortgage qualifying difficulty.”
Before the days of bidding wars and bully offers, the real estate market used to be cyclical and fairly predictable.
There was a spring market, which was typically the busiest time of year, and there was a fall market, where the action typically picked up following a quiet summer.
However, over the past decade, the pace of the real estate market picked up and realtors were forced to quickly adjust to the rapidly changing market, especially when the pandemic hit, and interest rates were at rock bottom for a lengthy timeframe.
Things changed again last year as interest rates slowly began to creep up, leaving realtors across Ontario trying to advise their clients as best they could in a constantly shifting landscape.
In January, many believed the Bank of Canada was done raising interest rates and the market began to heat back up in the spring, prompting rates hike in June and July, Robert Hogue, RBC’s assistant chief economist.
“We’ve seen in July and August with the most recent numbers and especially August, that home retail activity has come down,” he explained.
After the interest rates went up, sales slowed across much of Ontario, which was a sign to some realtors that we may be seeing a return to old real estate ways.
“I think we’re starting to see a bit more predictability in the market versus volatility,” Kitchener realtor Tony Johal explained about a return to real estate markets past.
Ottawa realtor Nick Kyte explained that traditionally, the summer market has been slower as people have been away.
“If they haven’t purchased a property by July, they tend to take August as their vacation months or going to the cottage or just kind of enjoying summer activities. And then they come back to the market in the fall,” he said.
Much like the rest of Ontario, it was a slow summer in Toronto, and over the first week of September, people began listing and looking again.
“Honestly, we were all sitting on our hands the last couple months going, ‘Geez, I hope this changes in the fall’ and it does feel like it is,” said Toronto realtor Brendan Powell.
He noted that some clients were still looking in Toronto this summer, but were unable to find properties to meet their needs.
With the real estate market appearing to approach a more traditional market, many of the realtors Global News spoke with believe there will be a bit of a bump in sales during the fall months as people return from summer vacation.
“There’s going to be a little bit of a spike right now in the fall market,” Hamilton realtor Rob Golfi said.
Johal was also cautiously optimistic about expectations for the fall market.
“I don’t think we’re going to hit spring’s numbers. The interest rates are staying put, and I do believe that will have an influence over pricing and overall activity,” he explained. “I do foresee the fall market leading all the way to closer to Christmas as being fairly consistent and strong.”
Hogue shared Johal’s cautious view of what will happen with real estate in Ontario when the fall approaches as he says the seasonally adjusted numbers for the summer were well worse than sales in the spring.
“Once you take that into consideration, the traditional slowdown, even then the July and August numbers of of this year were a slowed down relative to what we saw in the spring,” the economist explained.
He also noted that the rebound from the spring appears to have been reversed, offering a sign of things to come in the fall.
Buyers were cautious in the fall of 2022 and they remain so in 2023, especially with the potential for another rate hike in November if inflation persists.
“Buyers are acting like they did last fall, and last fall is when we saw continuous rate hikes,” Kyte said. “So therefore, if buyers were going to purchase, they had you know, they want to make sure that the home was in good shape, that it was what they were looking for.”
Hogue says that RBC believes that at most, there may be one more rate hike to come from the Bank of Canada, but the current rates are likely high enough to keep most first-time home buyer on the sidelines.
“It might take a month or two for the market to come to that conclusion,” Hogue said of the idea of the end of rate hikes. “And then you might see some people jumping back in. But the thing is, affordability is still a big issue, especially for first-time homebuyers.”
The economist also noted that if unemployment rates rise, that could keep people out of the market.
“It is also our view that the Canadian economy has already started a very mild recession,” he said. “So that is likely to potentially take the confidence of some people.”
Kyte looks back at how sellers reacted last year as an opportunity to explain how they might act in the fall of 2023.
He said if homes are priced correctly, then they will move but if not, they will make adjustments.
“Some sellers decide to status quo, others decide to adjust their price downwards to elicit some new buyers that may want to purchase before winter occurs,” the realtor said of the Ottawa market. “And some others just decide that maybe now’s not the right time for them to be on the market.”
The Ottawa realtor noted that if that was the case, then some sellers pulled houses off the market and relisted in the spring, which is traditionally a busier time in real estate.
In Toronto, Powell says the slowdown has created a more balanced market, which has allowed for conditional offers to return to the marketplace.
“There’s a lot more caution and we’re seeing mostly conditional offers, which is kind of what it should be,” he said.
“Conditions are a normal, smart part of a balanced market as people do their due diligence right and protect themselves from risk.”
That does not mean that the bidding wars have vanished entirely.
Johal says about half the homes that hit the market are being priced for bidding wars while the others are priced for market value.
While many buyers remain squeamish about the idea of a bidding war, Johal believes most are now expecting to see the price built into listings.
He explained that if several homes in one area were priced for bidding wars at $600,000 and one was priced at $700,000, some buyers might assume that the house with the higher sticker price might be set for a bidding war at a higher cost.
“The problem is they’re going to look at your listing and think you want $800,000 and completely avoid it in many cases,” he said.
“While we are still seeing some bidding wars erupt these days, we are also seeing buyers place conditions on homes when they make an offer. I think that the last year of uncertainty has really made a lot of people stop and think about of a real risk and real volatility,” Powell said.
He noted that five years ago, conditional offers became rare as people were fighting over a scarce market.
“People threw caution to the wind sometimes and I think that the last year has reminded everybody that there’s real risks involved in any kind of market like this,” he said. “While the buyers are out and are out looking, people are more cautious than they would have been, say, two years ago.”
He said those cautions include people making conditional offers as it should be.
Golfi said that while this might scare off some sellers, they probably should sell sooner rather than later.
“It’s going to take longer to sell a house I think (going forward). In the next 12 months it will take longer days on market will grow and grow,” Golfi said.
While the realtors expect homes which are prices accordingly to move fairly quickly in the fall as they traditionally would, hey also expect the market to slow in December which may be a good time to buy.
“I think the best month out of the year as a buyer. December and even January, those are the two best months,” Golfi said. ”If you’re going to buy a house and you want to get a super deal but inventory might be a little bit tough sometimes in those two months.”
Kyte also said that the price might be right for buyers when the holiday season approaches.
“If you’re looking at purchasing, you want to buy when not everyone else is buying because that’s when you can get a good deal, which is traditionally the fall into the early winter market,” he said.
To say the growth in real estate prices in Halton Region over the past 10 years is staggering would be an understatement.
According to sales data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, the average sale price for all dwelling types combined in Halton Region was $1,230,389 in August. In August 2013, that average was $572,934 — 114.7 per cent increase over the past decade.
Despite falling from record-high average prices set in early 2022, prices over the past 10 years have seen huge gains across Burlington, Halton Hills, Milton and Oakville.
When looking at year-over-year average sale prices for the month of August between 2013 and 2023, the combined average price of real estate in Burlington is up 94.5 per cent from $553,175 to $1,075,897.
Over the past 10 years in Halton Hills, the average price has increased 163 per cent from $475,462 to $1,250,700, while Milton saw its average for all dwelling types combined increase from $476,599 in August 2013 to $1,083,812 last month — or 127.4 per cent.
The combined average sale price in Oakville was $1,492,687 last month compared to $707,606 in August 2023, representing a 110.9 per cent increase over the same period.
The graphic below breaks down the average price for detached homes, semi-detached homes and apartment condos for the month of August dating back to 2013.
Here’s how much the average prices for detached homes, semi-detached homes and condo apartments in each community have increased percentagewise since 2013. There is insufficient data for semi-detached and condo apartments in Halton Hills for relevant statistical comparison due to low inventory and sales.
Detached homes: $639,168 (Aug. 2013) to $1,406,473 (Aug. 2023) — +120 per cent.
Semi-detached: $446,580 (Aug. 2013) to $965,714 (Aug. 2023) — +116.2 per cent.
Condo apartments: $301,967 (Aug. 2013) to $668,446 (Aug. 2023) — +121.4 per cent.
Detached homes: $511,505 (Aug. 2013) to $1,344,305 (Aug. 2023) — +162.8 per cent.
Condo apartments: N/A.
Detached homes: $569,278 (Aug. 2013) to $1,350,202 (Aug. 2023) — +137.1 per cent.
Semi-detached: $418,713 (Aug. 2013) to $1,053,375 (Aug. 2023) — +151.6 per cent.
Condo apartments: $288,333 (Aug. 2013) to $635,406 (Aug. 2023) — +120.1 per cent.
Detached homes: $860,975 (Aug. 2013) to $1,989,978 (Aug. 2023) — +131.1 per cent.
Semi-detached: $472,577 (Aug. 2013) to $1,167,500 (Aug. 2023) — +147 per cent.
Condo apartments: $418,118 (Aug. 2013) to $824,568 (Aug. 2023) — +97.2 per cent.
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