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Before the Bell: Futures mixes as markets await Fed rate decision

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Equities

Wall Street futures were narrowly mixed early Wednesday as traders await the Federal Reserve’s rate decision later in the day. Major European markets were up. TSX futures were positive.

S&P and Nasdaq futures were higher in the early premarket period, while Dow futures wavered around break even. All three finished Tuesday’s session up with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 managing their best levels since last spring during the trading day. Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index finished yesterday up 0.35 per cent to mark its best closing level in a week.

Wednesday afternoon will see the release of the Fed’s rate decision. Markets have now priced in a 90-per-cent chance the central bank will keep rates steady after ten consecutive hikes. On Tuesday, signs of easing inflation in the U.S. economy helped underscore expectations. New figures showed the annual rate of U.S. inflation slowed to 4 per cent in May from 4.9 per cent in April.

“The Fed’s decision for today is considered as done and dusted with a no rate hike,” Swissquote senior analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya said.

“But the chances are that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will sound sufficiently hawkish to let investors know that the war is not won just yet.”

She noted that core inflation in the U.S. remains well above the Fed’s 2-per-cent target, the U.S. jobs market is still strong and equity valuations point to an overly optimistic market.

“At the current levels, the S&P 500 trades at around 18 times its earnings forecast over the next year, and these levels are typically associated with times of healthy economic growth and rising corporate profits,” she said. “But we are now in a period of looming recession odds, and falling profits.”

The Fed’s decision is due at 2 p.m. and will be followed by a news conference with Fed chair Jerome Powell. Last week, the Bank of Canada surprised markets by raising rates after moving to the sidelines earlier in the year.

On the corporate side, Aurora Cannabis said early Wednesday that net revenue in the latest quarter totalled $64-million, up from $50.4-million in the same quarter last year. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization came in at $310,000 for the quarter ended March 31 compared with a loss of $10-million a year earlier.

Elsewhere, The Canadian Press reports that Air Canada pilots have kickstarted the bargaining process in the wake of WestJet pilots ratifying their new collective agreement. Representing about 4,500 employees, the Air Line Pilots Association’s Air Canada contingent said it has provided a bargaining notice to company management, the first step toward hashing out a new deal. Key issues include job security and the widening wage gap between pilots in U.S. and Canada, the news service said.

Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was up 0.45 per cent in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 0.19 per cent. Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 advanced 0.45 per cent and 0.72 per cent, respectively.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei added 1.47 per cent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slid 0.58 per cent.

Commodities

Crude prices added to the previous session’s gains in early trading while markets await the Fed’s rate decision later in the session.

The day range on Brent was US$73.94 to US$75.27 in the early premarket period. The range on West Texas Intermediate was US$69.07 to US$70.24.

Both both benchmarks added about 3 per cent on Tuesday and were up more than 1 per cent early Wednesday morning.

“Risk markets remain supported ahead of the widely expected Fed pause and the generally held view that inflation will continue to ebb through the summer,” Stephen Innes, managing partner with SPI Asset management, said in a note.

“But the main problem for the everything-else catch-up rotation trade to set in and broaden the rally from a one-trick AI pony show is that inflation is still running at 2.5 times the Fed target.”

He said pulling inflation back below 3 per cent could require additional rate hikes or, at minimum, a lengthy pause well into next year.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency said early Wednesday that the boost to oil demand growth from the post-pandemic recovery is set to end this year, with economic challenges and the transition to cleaner fuels slowing growth from 2024, according to Reuters.

In its monthly report, the IEA said it expects global oil demand will grow by 2.4 million barrels per day in 2023 to a record 102.3 million bpd. However, the agency also says economic headwinds will likely reduce growth to 860,000 bpd next year and increasing use of electric vehicles to help cut that to 400,000 bpd in 2028 for overall demand of 105.7 million bpd, the news agency reported.

Later Wednesday morning, markets will get weekly inventory figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. On Tuesday, weekly figures from the American Petroleum Institute showed crude stocks rose by about 1 million barrels in the week ended June 9. Analysts had been expecting a decline.

Meanwhile, pot gold rose 0.4 per cent to US$1,950.09 per ounce by early Wednesday morning. U.S. gold futures rose 0.2 per cent to US$1,962.90.

Currencies

The Canadian dollar was higher in early trading, supported by improved crude prices, while its U.S. counterpart slid against world currencies as markets anticipate the Fed foregoing a rate hike later in the day.

The day range on the loonie was 75.06 US cents to 75.28 US cents in the early premarket period. The Canadian dollar has gained nearly 2 per cent against the greenback for the year to date.

On world markets, the dollar index – which measures the performance of the U.S. currency against six others – was flat at 103.20, after touching its lowest since May 22 overnight at 103.04, according to figures from Reuters.

The euro was last flat at US$1.0787. The European Central Bank makes its next rate decision on Thursday and is expected to hike borrowing costs by a quarter percentage point.

In bonds, the yield on the U.S. 10-year note was lower at 3.80 per cent in the predawn period.

More company news

Shell will ramp up its dividend and share buybacks while keeping oil output steady into 2030, it said on Wednesday, as CEO Wael Sawan moved to regain investor confidence that wavered over its energy transition plan. In a new financial framework announced ahead of an investor conference in New York starting at 1230 GMT, Shell said it will increase overall shareholder distribution to 30% to 40% of cash flow from operations from 20% to 30% previously. That includes a 15% dividend boost and an increase in the rate of its share buyback program from the second quarter to $5-billion from $4-billion in recent quarters. -Reuters

Alphabet’s Google was charged by EU antitrust regulators with anti-competitive practices in its digital advertising business on Wednesday and may have to sell part of this business to address their concerns. The European Commission set out its charges in a statement of objections, two years after it opened an investigation into the case. “The Commission takes issue with Google favouring its own online display advertising technology services to the detriment of competing providers of advertising technology services, advertisers and online publishers,” the EU competition enforcer said in a statement. –Reuters

Economic news

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian national balance sheet accounts for Q1.

(8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. PPI for May.

(2 p.m. ET) U.S. Fed announcement and summary of economic projections with chair Jerome Powell’s press conference to follow.

With Reuters and The Canadian Press

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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Amazon rejects plea to stop selling taxi roof signs as cab scam spreads across Canada

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After a long day at a work event in July, Kathryn Kozody was relieved when she spotted a car with a lit-up taxi sign.

She thought it was odd when the driver told her she’d have to pay her fare with a debit card. Still, a tired Kozody hopped in the car.

“I was like, ‘Fine, it’s kind of weird, but let’s go home,'” said Kozody, who lives in Calgary.

Nothing else seemed off — until the next day when she discovered that almost $2,000 was missing from her bank account. On top of that, her debit card had someone else’s name on it.

Kozody concluded that the taxi driver was a fraudster who, during the debit card transaction, recorded her PIN, stole her card and handed her back a fake.

“I started freaking out,” she said. “It’s terrifying when they have your debit card.”

It took Kozody about two weeks to get her money back from her bank, and she’s still rattled by the experience.

 Kathryn Kozody standing on the street
The day after taking what she thought was a ride in a taxi, Kathryn Kozody of Calgary found out someone had withdrawn almost $2,000 from her bank account. (James Young/CBC News)

“It really felt like an invasion of privacy and a violation to be a victim of this scam,” she said. “I really don’t want it to happen to anybody else.”

The taxi scam isn’t new; Toronto and Montreal have been seeing it for years. But the crime is becoming more widespread.

This summer, police in Calgary, Edmonton and at least five cities in southern Ontario, including Kingston and Ottawa, posted warnings online that they had received multiple reports of the scam.

Police and the Canadian Taxi Association say the fraudsters have a helping hand: with the click of a button, they can purchase a generic — but official looking — taxi roof sign on e-commerce sites like Amazon.

A Facebook post by the Edmonton Police.
Edmonton Police posted this alert on Facebook in July, warning people about an ongoing taxi scam. The city’s police department says that it received about 10 reports of the scam that month. (Edmonton Police/Facebook )

The taxi association has asked Amazon, by far Canada’s most popular online shopping site, to stop making the roof signs so easily available.

“They do have a moral responsibility to at least sell the signs to individuals that are properly licensed,” said association president Marc André Way.

However, the U.S.-based company continues to sell the product to all customers.

“These lights are legal to sell in Canada,” Amazon told CBC News in an email.

‘Eye-popping’ numbers

The taxi scam has several variations but typically ends the same way: the victim pays with a debit card, then the scammer secretly steals it and hands the victim a similar but fake card. Shortly thereafter, money disappears from the victim’s account.

Ron Hansen, deputy chief of police in Sarnia, Ont., said his department received 12 reports of the scam in July, with one victim losing $9,900.

Toronto police report that since June 2023 the department has received 919 reports of the taxi scam, totalling $1.7 million in losses.

Jessica Chin King standing on the street.
Jessica Chin King of Toronto said after a recent cab ride, she got a suspicious activity alert from her bank. She learned $600 had been withdrawn from her account. (Craig Chivers/CBC)

The numbers are “eye-popping,” said Toronto police detective David Coffey.

“When they do get a victim, they are quick to go right into the bank accounts. They’re quick to empty them out.”

Jessica Chin King of Toronto said just 15 minutes after a recent cab ride, she got a suspicious activity alert from her bank. Turns out, $600 had been withdrawn from her account.

“I was like, ‘Wow, I can’t believe that just happened.’ I was in shock,” said Chin King, whose bank later reimbursed the cash.

She said she too was fooled by the taxi sign atop the car.

“I was in the car with somebody who wasn’t a taxi driver. Anything could have happened,” she said. “I was thankful that it was only my bank [account] that was compromised.”

Taxi light for $35 on Amazon

CBC News bought a taxi sign from Amazon for $35. It has a magnetic strip on the bottom, so it easily sticks to the top of a car.

To power the light, an attached wire can be run through the driver’s window and plugged into the car’s auxiliary power outlet, also known as the cigarette lighter outlet.

The taxi association says licensed taxi drivers typically get their roof signs from speciality suppliers, and they are hardwired to the car — not powered via the cigarette lighter.

“When you see that … it’s obvious that it’s not a legitimate taxi,” said Way, the association president.

Last month, Way sent Amazon a letter on behalf of the Canadian Taxi Association, asking it to stop selling the product.

“This is not a safe, practical way to distribute the trusted ‘Taxi’ signs,” he wrote.

A yellow taxi sign with an attached wire.
CBC News ordered this $35 taxi sign on Amazon. The attached wire can be run through the driver’s window and plugged into the car’s auxiliary power outlet, while the lights for licensed drivers are hardwired into the vehicle. (Sophia Harris/CBC News)

But Amazon told Way — and CBC News — the signs will remain on its site, because the company isn’t breaking any rules.

“It’s going to be quite difficult, I think, for anyone to stop Amazon from selling a product that is perfectly legal to sell,” said Toronto criminal lawyer, Daniel Goldbloom. “It’s true that these taxi signs can be used to commit scams, but kitchen knives can be used to commit murder — and we don’t stop retailers from selling those.”

But Way isn’t giving up hope.

He says the taxi association also plans to ask other online retailers, such as Temu and eBay, to stop selling the taxi signs and will lobby provincial governments for legislation that regulates the sale of the product.

However, Coffey said he believes the best way to fight the taxi scam is to educate people about it.

“Never, never give another person control of your debit card,” the detective said.

Victims Chin King and Kozody also want to spread the word.

“The more people know, the less likely it is to happen again to somebody else,” Kozody said.

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