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Before the Bell: What every Canadian investor needs to know today

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Equities

Wall Street futures were lower Tuesday as traders weigh results from more big U.S. banks. Major European markets were down. TSX futures were weaker with fresh inflation data released this morning.

In the early premarket period, Dow, S&P and Nasdaq futures were all underwater. U.S. markets were closed on Monday. Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index finished yesterday up 0.34 per cent.

“I sense that the first quarter of this year will be marked by the realization that it’s too early for the central banks to cut the interest rates unless something really bad – like another bank crisis, or a real estate crisis, or another debt crisis hits the fan,” Swissquote senior analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya said in a morning note.

In Canada, investors got December inflation data before the start of trading. Statistics Canada says the annual rate of inflation ticked up to 3.4 per cent in December, from 3.1 per cent a month earlier. The increase matched market forecasts. Month-over-month, the consumer price index fell 0.3 per cent in December after a 0.1-per-cent gain in November, Statscan said.

“The Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures, CPI-trim and CPI-median failed to fall, with trim accelerating by two ticks to 3.7 per cent and median remaining at 3.6 per cent (from an upwardly revised prior month reading that was previously 3.4%),” CIBC economist Katherine Judge said.

“Those measures also accelerated in three-month and six-month annualized change terms, measures that the Bank of Canada will need to see more progress in before considering rate cuts.”

The Globe’s Mark Rendell reports that a pair of Bank of Canada surveys released Monday suggested high interest rates are bringing down inflation expectations and slowing the pace that businesses are raising prices, while also creating considerable financial hardship for household. The surveys bolstered market expectations that the central bank will keep interest rates steady at its Jan. 24 meeting before starting to cut borrowing costs later in the year.

On Wall Street, bank earnings continue to roll in with results due today from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Four big U.S. banks – including JPMorgan and Citigroup – posted mixed results on Friday.

Ahead of the opening bell, Goldman reported a profit of US$2.01-billion, or US$5.48 per share, for the latest quarter, compared with US$1.33 billion, or US$3.32 per share, a year earlier. Morgan Stanley’s net income fell to US$1.5-billion, or 85 US cents per diluted share, in the three months ended Dec. 31, compared with US$2.2-billion, or US$1.26 per diluted share, last year. Morgan Stanley’s profit was hit in the most recent quarter by by one-time charges related to a Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s special assessment, according to Reuters.

Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was down 0.27 per cent by midday. Britain’s FTSE 100 slid 0.27 per cent. Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 lost 0.32 per cent and 0.21 per cent, respectively.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei finished down 0.79 per cent while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 2.16 per cent.

Commodities

Crude prices were mixed with economic concerns weighing on sentiment offset by continuing uncertainty in the Middle East.

The day range on Brent was US$77.85 to US$78.69 in the early premarket period. The range on West Texas Intermediate was US$71.23 to US$72.98.

“Oil prices remain very choppy amid the uncertainty in the Middle East following the U.S. and U.K. attacks on Houthi targets,” OANDA senior analyst Craig Erlam said.

“We haven’t seen a significant increase in the price of oil on the back of the attacks but the brief spikes we’ve seen have highlighted the sensitivity in the market to events around the Red Sea.”

Reuters reported Yemen’s Houthi movement will expand its targets in the Red Sea region to include U.S. ships, an official from the Iran-allied group said on Monday, as it vowed to keep up attacks after U.S. and British strikes on its sites in Yemen. Meanwhile, more tankers continue to avoid the region.

In other commodities, spot gold was down 0.3 per cent at US$2,048.70 per ounce by early Tuesday morning. U.S. gold futures rose 0.1 per cent to US$2,053.00.

“The yellow metal remains buoyed by very aggressive rate-cutting expectations, particularly in the U.S., but at the same time, it is struggling to generate fresh momentum around the prior record highs, near US$2,070,” Mr. Erlam said.

“We obviously saw a spike in early December well above this but the timing of the move and the speed with which it reversed it suggests the market was never fully behind it, so the prior highs continue to look like a significant psychological threshold.”

Currencies

The Canadian dollar fell while its U.S. counterpart touched a one-month high in early trading as markets turned cautious on the timing of rate cuts.

The day range on the loonie was 74.06 US cents to 74.50 US cents in the early premarket period. For the year to date, the Canadian dollar has is down about 1.9 per cent against the greenback.

On world markets, the U.S. dollar index jumped 0.78 per cent to 103.20 in the predawn period.

“The hawkish ECB commentaries last night have fuelled concerns that market pricing for the Fed rate path may also be aggressive,” said Charu Chanana, head of currency strategy at Saxo in Singapore.

On Monday, the ECB’s Joachim Nagel suggested it was too early to talk about cutting interest rates while ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann suggested investors expecting a rate cut this spring were likely to be disappointed and that he “may even foresee no cut at all this year.”

The euro slumped 0.61 per cent to US$1.0886. Britain’s pound was down 0.68 per cent to US$1.2640 by early this morning.

In bonds, the yield on the U.S. 10-year note was higher at 4.007 per cent ahead of the North American opening bell.

More company news

The Globe’s Susan Krashinsky Robertson reports this morning that the parent company of Tim Hortons is buying its largest Burger King franchisee in the United States, a US$1-billion deal intended to accelerate its turnaround plan for the chain. Toronto-based Restaurant Brands International Inc. announced on Tuesday that it had agreed to acquire Carrols Restaurant Group, Inc., a publicly-traded company that operates 1,022 Burger King locations in the U.S., mostly in the northeastern states. Carrols is also a franchisee for 60 locations in RBI’s Popeyes chain.

British energy major Shell has agreed to sell its Nigerian onshore oil and gas subsidiary in Nigeria to a consortium of five mostly local companies for up to $2.4 billion, after nearly a century of operations there. Active in the West African country since the 1930s, Shell has struggled for years with hundreds of oil spills at its onshore operations as a result of theft, sabotage and operational issues that led to costly repairs and high-profile lawsuits. It has sought to sell its Nigerian oil and gas business since 2021, but will remain active in Nigeria’s more lucrative and less problematic offshore sector. –Reuters

The Globe’s Stefanie Marotta reports Royal Bank of Canadasaid late Monday that it expects to close its $13.5-billion takeover of HSBC Holdings PLC’s Canadian subsidiary in March, clinching the biggest domestic banking deal on record. Canada’s largest lender said in a statement that it plans to close its proposed acquisition of HSBC Bank Canada on March 28, less than half a year later than its initial timeline. The deal received its final stamp of approval from Ottawa in December after RBC faced opposition from stakeholder groups and federal opposition parties in recent months.

Economic news

(8:15 a.m. ET) Canadian housing starts for December.

(8:30 a.m. ET) Canadian CPI for December.

With Reuters and The Canadian Press

 

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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