Two-thirds of Americans in a new ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll – including a majority of Joe Biden’s own supporters – say he should step aside as his party’s presumptive nominee for president given his debate performance two weeks ago. That’s even as Biden continues to run evenly with Donald Trump, with no meaningful post-debate change in vote preferences.
Americans divide 46-47% between Biden and Trump if the election were today, almost identical to a 44-46% ABC/Ipsos poll result in April. Among registered voters (though there’s plenty of time to register) it’s an absolute tie, 46-46%.
Were Vice President Kamala Harris to replace Biden as the Democratic nominee, vote choices are 49-46%, Harris-Trump, among all adults (and 49-47% among registered voters). Harris’ 49% is slightly better than Biden’s 46%, although she doesn’t have a statistically significant lead over Trump.
Vote preference between Joe Biden / Donald Trump now, and in Apr. 2024, and Kamal Harris / Donald Trump in Apr. 2024
ABC News / Washington Post / Ipsos and ABC News / Ipsos polls
This doesn’t mean Biden didn’t take on damage from the debate. Sixty-seven percent overall say he should withdraw from the race. More, 85% now say he is too old for a second term, a new high, up from an already-broad 81% in April and 68% just more than a year ago.
Too Old for a Second Term?
ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll
Further, the poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates with fieldwork by Ipsos, finds Trump leading Biden by 30 percentage points, 44%-14%, in being seen as having the mental sharpness it takes to serve effectively as president. Trump’s lead is about as wide in being seen as having the physical health to serve, and his advantages on both have widened since April.
As the horse race shows, those views may not be determinative. Biden’s job approval rating is stable, albeit at a weak 36%. Though neither is broadly popular, Biden continues to have a better personal favorability rating than Trump. And Biden leads Trump by 17 points, 39%-22%, in being seen as more honest and trustworthy, essentially unchanged from the spring.
Both candidates face a high degree of scorn. About 4 in 10 Americans say neither has the mental sharpness or the physical health to serve effectively, and as many say neither is honest and trustworthy. Sixty percent say Trump is too old for a second term, also a new high, up from 44% in spring 2023. And in a sign of the nation’s political polarization, 50% say that given his debate performance, Trump should step aside in favor of another nominee — although, in contrast with Biden, very few of Trump’s own supporters say so.
It’s clearly Biden who suffered more reputational harm from the debate. Half of Americans say it left them with a less favorable opinion of him, versus 22% who say that about Trump’s performance. Twenty-seven percent see Trump more favorably because of the debate, versus just 7% for Biden on this measure.
Even among people who say they’ll vote for Biden in November, 81% say he is too old for another term and just 44% say he should continue in the race; 54% say he should step aside. Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, more — 62% — say he should go. (For comparison, just 16% of Republicans and GOP leaners say Trump should withdraw.)
% Saying Biden Should Step Aside
ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll
Should Biden withdraw — and he maintains he won’t — just 44% of Americans overall say they’d be satisfied with Harris as the Democratic nominee, with 53% dissatisfied. Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, however, satisfaction with Harris reaches 70%, and it’s 76% among current Biden supporters.
Taken another way, in an open-ended question, Democrats and Democratic leaners were asked whom they’d like to see take Biden’s place if he withdrew. Twenty-nine percent named Harris, easily the leading choice in this group, with all others in the single digits. Still, demonstrating fragmentation, more than 30 potential candidates were named.
The debate
The verdict on the debate is not close: Two-thirds of Americans say Trump won it, rising to 74% of those who watched it. (This includes those who initially call it a tie but then lean toward one or the other as the winner.)
Among Biden supporters, 59% say he won, demonstrating a significant degree of loyalty in this group. Among those who favor either Trump or another candidate, by contrast, a nearly unanimous 94% say Trump won the debate.
Another result may raise the stakes for Biden’s future appearances, including his scheduled news conference later Thursday: Among viewers, 61% say their opinion of Biden worsened as a result of the debate. Among those who didn’t watch, many fewer say so — 34%.
Stay or go
Majorities across most groups say Biden should step aside, albeit to varying degrees. It’s lowest, 49%, among Black people, including 32% among Black people age 50 and older, an especially strong group for Biden.
Fifty-six percent of Democrats say Biden should withdraw, rising to 72% of independents and a nearly identical share of Republicans, 73%. Six in 10 liberals say so, as do about 7 in 10 moderates and conservatives. It’s also about 7 in 10 among both white and Hispanic people. Even among people who have a favorable opinion of Biden personally, 55% say he should step aside, as do 77% of those who see him unfavorably.
Vote choice
Like the Biden-Trump horse race overall, preferences among groups are very similar to what they were in April. It’s 39-53%, Biden-Trump, among white people, for example, 49-42% among Hispanic people and 77-17% among Black people.
His debate performance notwithstanding, Democrats stick with Biden, 91-5%; Republicans with Trump, 94-4%; and independents, often swing voters in national elections, split 40-44% (Biden-Trump), not a significant difference.
There are some differences in Harris’ support against Trump compared with Biden’s, though not enough to make that race anything but another dead heat. Harris does better against Trump with women, 52-44%, compared with 47-46% for Biden-Trump among women.
Further, Harris has a significant lead over Trump among Hispanic people, 56-40%, while Biden does not. And Harris does 8 points better than Biden with urban women, 61% versus 53%. Harris’s 82% support among Black people, and 86% among Black women, are not significantly different from Biden’s results in these groups.
Another test, including Biden, Trump and third-party or independent candidates, again finds no meaningful change from April, with 41% for Biden, 42% for Trump, 10% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 2% apiece for Cornel West and Jill Stein.
Attributes
As noted, even after the debate Biden carries a comparative advantage in one key measure of goodwill. He’s 8 points underwater on personal favorability, seen favorably by 42% of the public, unfavorably by 50%. Trump, by contrast, is 25 points underwater on this score, 34%-59%.
These favorability ratings are essentially unchanged since April, with no debate impact apparent. That’s even while, among people who see Biden favorably overall, nearly 4 in 10 (37%) also say they see him less favorably than previously because of the debate.
Personal Favorability
ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll
A question ahead is what candidate attributes matter most to the public. That includes, for example, how much juice Biden gets from his clear advantage on honesty and trustworthiness, or his smaller, single-digit leads as the candidate who “represents your personal values” and “will protect American democracy.” He and Trump run essentially evenly in another, historically important attribute, understanding “the problems of people like you.”
That said, the hit to Biden on his perceived mental acuity and physical health are real. In April he trailed Trump on mental sharpness by 19 points; today, as mentioned, it’s 30 points. And Biden’s 22-point deficit on physical health in the spring is 31 points now.
Personal Attributes
ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll
Trump, moreover, betters Biden in terms of job approval. With 36% approving versus 57% disapproving, Biden is 21 points underwater on this score. Thinking back to Trump’s presidency, 43% approve of his job performance, 52% disapprove, a narrower 9-point gap. Biden’s job rating has been essentially steady for more than a year, and negative for three years.
Plan B
As to possible successors, 67% of Black people — an overwhelmingly Democratic group — would be satisfied with Harris, the first Black person and first woman to serve as vice president, taking over from Biden. Fewer Hispanic people (51%) or white people (38%) would be satisfied, at least in part reflecting their differing partisan preferences.
Satisfaction with a Harris nomination is about the same among Black women (70%) and Black men (64%; the 6-point difference isn’t significant given sample sizes). Similarly, there’s no difference between men and women overall in their views on Harris as the nominee.
In the open-ended question among Democrats and Democratic leaners, Harris leads in preference to replace Biden across groups — named, for example, by 27% to 34% of men, women, Black people, Hispanic people and white people alike.
As many skipped or declined the question as picked Harris. Distantly following her, 7% named California Gov. Gavin Newsom as a preferred stand-in; 4%, former first lady Michelle Obama; 3% each, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer; 2%, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.; and 1%, eight other political figures from Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Others showed up with less than half a percent.
Methodology
This ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll was conducted online via the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel® July 5-9, 2024, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 2,431 adults. Partisan divisions are 32%-29%-27%, Democrats-Republicans-independents. Results have a margin of sampling error of 2 percentage points, including the design effect, for the full sample. Sampling error is not the only source of differences in polls.
The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, with sampling and data collection by Ipsos. See details on ABC News survey methodology here.
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.
Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.
A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”
Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.
“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.
In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”
“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”
Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.
Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.
Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.
“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.
“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.
“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”
Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.
“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”
NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”
“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.
Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.
She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.
Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.
Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.
The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.
Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.
“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.
“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”
The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.
In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.
“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”
In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.
“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”
Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.
Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.
“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”
In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.
In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.
“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”
Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.
“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”
The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.
“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.
“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
