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Big Canadian banks set to release earnings as economy shifts to reopening – Alberni Valley News

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Investors in Canada’s major banks will be looking for signs of loan growth, impacts of the Delta variant and hints of what the Big Six may do with their cash reserves when they report this week.

The banks are widely expected to further unwind the record-breaking amounts of money they set aside last year — at least $16.5 billion across the Big Six — to cover widespread loan defaults that never materialized.

Shareholders, however, have already largely factored in the earnings boost from the reserve winddown, as was already seen in U.S. bank earnings last month, said James Shanahan, senior equity research analyst for North American financials at Edward Jones.

“In some cases there were earnings beats of 10, 20, 30 per cent, and the stocks were down. So the market clearly isn’t going to reward the Canadian banks if they deliver huge earnings beats and it’s just simply related to reserve releases.”

Loan growth will be a key area to watch as the economy reopens. Many people and companies have used extra cash during the pandemic to pay down debts, putting pressure on a key area for the financial sector.

Canadian bank lending hasn’t been hit as hard on loans as the U.S. though, thanks largely to residential mortgage lending that drives about two-thirds of Canadian bank loan portfolios, Shanahan said.

The mortgage business has been brisk in Canada this year as both home sales and prices spiked, which has benefited the banks but has also increased concerns about household debt.

The Bank of Canada said in a financial review in May that high household debt and imbalances in the housing market both intensified over the past year.

“The housing market boom and the corresponding rise in mortgage debt support economic growth in the short term but increase the risk to the Canadian economy and financial system over the medium term.”

Debt levels also prompted Fitch Ratings Inc. in July to downgrade its rating on the operating environment for Canadian banks by a notch to reflect “elevated levels of private and public sector indebtedness, which Fitch views as negative for long-term credit conditions and business volumes.”

Nigel D’Souza, a financial services investment analyst at Veritas Investment Research, said overall debt levels are a potential concern, but the monthly carrying costs of those debts is the more important factor.

“It’s a potential risk, but until interest rates start to move higher, and the cost of servicing those debts start to move higher, I don’t think you’re going to see it translate to any credit risk.”

The more immediate headwind for banks could be slowing activity on the capital markets front, D’Souza said. Banks have seen a boost to trading revenue, as well as underwriting and advisory fees as more companies raise money and make public offerings in what has been elevated market activity in general.

Capital markets revenue could fall by seven per cent, quarter over quarter, estimates CIBC analyst Paul Holden, which will help push down overall earnings per share by an estimated average of 2.5 per cent from the previous quarter.

“Transaction volumes for equities, derivatives and fixed income all point to lower trading revenue,” Holden said in a note.

Looking ahead, the other big unknown for banks is the question of dividend increases and share buybacks, which were banned byCanada’s banking regulator last year when the economic impacts of the pandemic were unclear.

Those restrictions are still in place, but analysts expect them to be lifted at the end of October, when the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions has said it will be adjusting the amount of capital that banks are required to hold.

Like so much else in financial outlooks though, delays in reopenings due to the Delta variant could push the timing on dividends further out.

With so much uncertainty in the transition, investors may be somewhat cautious in their response to earnings in the quarter, much like they were with U.S. earnings, Shanahan said.

“The overall reaction to large U.S. bank earnings was muted, and I would kind of expect that to be the case.”

Scotiabank and Bank of Montreal report on Tuesday, followed by National Bank and Royal Bank on Wednesday and CIBC and TD Bank on Thursday.

Ian Bickis, The Canadian Press


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A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 250 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

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