Bitcoin has had a phenomenal start to 2024, recording new all-time highs and exceeding the expectations of investors around the world.
But the price run has slowed significantly, and Bitcoin is down over 10% in the past week, dipping below the $63,000 level. What does this mean for Bitcoin going forward? Take a look.
For starters, many analysts believe that Bitcoin was due for a slight reversal. For example, Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, said the last time Bitcoin hit all-time highs in 2021, “You had Bitcoin correct 10% or more 13 times … from $3,800 to $69,000.” This could be a case of a slight pullback before Bitcoin reaches new highs again.
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Additionally, Robert Kiyosaki, author of “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” said, “All market crashes are, are assets going on and ‘sale’ is my favorite four-letter word.” While this drop in the price of Bitcoin may not necessarily be a crash, it could be viewed as Bitcoin simply “going on sale.”
Bitcoin has seen huge growth in 2024, primarily because of the approval of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the upcoming Bitcoin halving. The ETFs have attracted tens of billions in inflows, and the Bitcoin halving is projected to reduce the amount of selling activity in the market.
Another wrinkle is that the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) of Japan requested information on Bitcoin to potentially include it in future investment portfolios.
With nearly $1.5 trillion in assets as of fall 2023, GPIF is the largest pension fund in the world. On March 19, it asked to take a closer look at a handful of “illiquidity assets,” such as Bitcoin, farmland and gold. It likely will take some time to review the information before deciding whether to invest in these assets. The submission for information is due on April 19.
GPIF focuses on investments in both domestic and foreign debt and equities as well as real estate and private equity.
GPIF is not the first pension fund to take a look at the viability of Bitcoin. The Houston Firefighters Relief and Retirement Fund (HFRRF) has invested in Bitcoin directly, and the South Korean National Pension Service has a stake in Coinbase stock.
If GPIF invests in Bitcoin, it could mark a significant change in the institutional view of Bitcoin from an investment perspective. It will be interesting to see what GPIF finds in its preliminary research later this spring and whether it turns into an investment in digital currency.
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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was down more than 200 points in late-morning trading, weighed down by losses in the technology, base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets also fell.
The S&P/TSX composite index was down 239.24 points at 22,749.04.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 312.36 points at 40,443.39. The S&P 500 index was down 80.94 points at 5,422.47, while the Nasdaq composite was down 380.17 points at 16,747.49.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.80 cents US compared with 74.00 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down US$1.07 at US$68.08 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.26 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$2.10 at US$2,541.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was down four cents at US$4.10 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in technology, financial and energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also pushed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 171.41 points at 23,298.39.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 278.37 points at 41,369.79. The S&P 500 index was up 38.17 points at 5,630.35, while the Nasdaq composite was up 177.15 points at 17,733.18.
The Canadian dollar traded for 74.19 cents US compared with 74.23 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up US$1.75 at US$76.27 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.10 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$18.70 at US$2,556.50 an ounce and the December copper contract was down less than a penny at US$4.22 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 29, 2024.
The crypto market has recently experienced a significant downturn, mirroring broader risk asset sell-offs. Over the past week, Bitcoin’s price dropped by 24%, reaching $53,000, while Ethereum plummeted nearly a third to $2,340. Major altcoins also suffered, with Cardano down 27.7%, Solana 36.2%, Dogecoin 34.6%, XRP 23.1%, Shiba Inu 30.1%, and BNB 25.7%.
The severe downturn in the crypto market appears to be part of a broader flight to safety, triggered by disappointing economic data. A worse-than-expected unemployment report on Friday marked the beginning of a technical recession, as defined by the Sahm Rule. This rule identifies a recession when the three-month average unemployment rate rises by at least half a percentage point from its lowest point in the past year.
Friday’s figures met this threshold, signaling an abrupt economic downshift. Consequently, investors sought safer assets, leading to declines in major stock indices: the S&P 500 dropped 2%, the Nasdaq 2.5%, and the Dow 1.5%. This trend continued into Monday with further sell-offs overseas.
The crypto market’s rapid decline raises questions about its role as either a speculative asset or a hedge against inflation and recession. Despite hopes that crypto could act as a risk hedge, the recent crash suggests it remains a speculative investment.
Since the downturn, the crypto market has seen its largest three-day sell-off in nearly a year, losing over $500 billion in market value. According to CoinGlass data, this bloodbath wiped out more than $1 billion in leveraged positions within the last 24 hours, including $365 million in Bitcoin and $348 million in Ether.
Khushboo Khullar of Lightning Ventures, speaking to Bloomberg, argued that the crypto sell-off is part of a broader liquidity panic as traders rush to cover margin calls. Khullar views this as a temporary sell-off, presenting a potential buying opportunity.
Josh Gilbert, an eToro market analyst, supports Khullar’s perspective, suggesting that the expected Federal Reserve rate cuts could benefit crypto assets. “Crypto assets have sold off, but many investors will see an opportunity. We see Federal Reserve rate cuts, which are now likely to come sharper than expected, as hugely positive for crypto assets,” Gilbert told Coindesk.
Despite the recent volatility, crypto continues to make strides toward mainstream acceptance. Notably, Morgan Stanley will allow its advisors to offer Bitcoin ETFs starting Wednesday. This follows more than half a year after the introduction of the first Bitcoin ETF. The investment bank will enable over 15,000 of its financial advisors to sell BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC. This move is seen as a significant step toward the “mainstreamization” of crypto, given the lengthy regulatory and company processes in major investment banks.
The recent crypto market downturn highlights its volatility and the broader economic concerns affecting all risk assets. While some analysts see the current situation as a temporary sell-off and a buying opportunity, others caution against the speculative nature of crypto. As the market evolves, its role as a mainstream alternative asset continues to grow, marked by increasing institutional acceptance and new investment opportunities.
