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Bitcoin price holds steady above $26k after CPI report, but death cross looms

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(Kitco News) – Cryptocurrencies traded in a holding pattern on Wednesday after the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed an uptick in inflation in August, with headline prices rising 0.6% month-over-month and 3.7% on an annual basis, largely driven by a spike in energy prices.

Stocks were mixed as investors focused their attention on next week’s Fed meeting, where the central bank will determine if additional interest rate hikes are needed. The CME FedWatch Tool now gives a 97% probability that the Fed will pause its rate hikes next week, up from 92% a day ago.

At the closing bell, the S&P and Nasdaq finished in the green, up 0.12% and 0.29%, respectively, while the Dow recorded a loss of 0.20%.

Data provided by TradingView shows that Bitcoin’s (BTC) price initially climbed higher after the CPI report, hitting a high of $26,416 in the afternoon before pulling back to support above $26,100, which has provided a consistent level of resistance since the middle of August.

BTC/USD Chart by TradingView

“September Bitcoin futures prices [were] higher again in early U.S. trading Wednesday, on a rebound after hitting a six-month low Monday,” according to Kitco senior technical analyst Jim Wyckoff.

Bitcoin futures 1-day chart. Source: Kitco

“The bulls have stabilized prices now, but have much more heavy lifting to do in the near term, to suggest a price uptrend can be started,” Wyckoff said. “The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage as a price downtrend line remains in place on the daily chart.”

Wednesday’s CPI-inspired Trade Letter from MN Trading noted that “When interest rates are aggressively increased, the overall performance of risk-on assets in the markets tends to be less favorable.”

“We witnessed this trend for an extended period, where we seemed to be stuck in a downward spiral,” MN Trading analyst Daan Foppen said, but “The tide is turning.”

With recent CPI reports showing that inflation has been moderating, Foppen said this has given the Fed “fewer reasons to continue aggressively raising interest rates,” which gives risk-on assets “more room to increase in value once again.”

Delving into the price action for Bitcoin, Foppen said that on high time-frame charts, the weekly candles “appear quite indecisive, and the overall chart looks a bit shaky.”

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: MN Trading

“Yes, officially, we are still in an uptrend, and that’s certainly something to consider, but I don’t find the overall structure of the weekly timeframe very reassuring,” Foppen said. “We had a sweep to the upside followed by an aggressive move downward. Subsequently, we saw a retracement towards the weekly FVG [fair value gap], where we once again witnessed a strong rejection. Additionally, we have relative equal lows on the downside, and it’s highly likely that the price will move in that direction.”

Scaling down to the daily timeframe, Foppen said, “We can see another reason why an initial move downward is likely in the cards.”

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: MN Trading

“We have equal lows on the downside of the price. These levels are used to engineer liquidity,” he said. “What we can see, and it’s highly likely to be the case, is that these equal lows have formed above an imbalance on the daily timeframe. So, now the price has two reasons to go down: first, to remove liquidity below the equal lows, and second, to fill the imbalance on the daily timeframe.”

“Capital preservation is one of the most important aspects of trading,” Foppen said. “Especially in these times and current market conditions, it’s crucial not to do anything reckless. Price action is choppy, and we are trading within a narrow range.”

For this reason, he recommends adopting a strategy called “milk the range,” which involves “trading the extremes of the range until it no longer works.”

BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: MN Trading

“This provides stability and prevents you from constantly staring at the charts all day,” he said. “Set alerts at the range high and range low, wait for deviation and reclaim, and trade based on that. This is likely where you’ll find the most success.”

While Foppen is offering traders a potential way to book profits amid sideways trading, Adam Button, chief currency analyst and managing editor at Forexlive.com, warned that “A death cross has formed on the Bitcoin daily chart as the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average,” and said the last time this happened, “Bitcoin fell from $42,400 down to $15,700 from January to November of 2022 – a 63% decline.”

BTC 1-day chart with 50dma and 100dma. Source: Forexlive

“It’s a popular technical indicator but it’s not infallible,” Button said. “The previous death cross was in June 2021 and it was only followed by a 20% decline and a death cross in 2020 wasn’t followed by any selling at all. This week, a test of $25,000 found buyers but a break could lead to a fall to $20,000 or the January lows near $17,000.”

Mixed performance for the altcoin market

The top 200 altcoins traded mixed, with the winners outnumbering the losers, while most tokens traded within ±3% of Tuesday’s prices.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

VeThor Token (VTHO) was the standout token of the day with an increase of 57% after it was unexpectedly added to Coinbase. Other notable gainers include Storj (STORJ), Galxe (GAL), and Metal DAO (MTL), which increased 10.9%, 9.1%, and 8.3%, respectively. Astar (ASTR) was the biggest loser with a decline of 7.6%, followed by a loss of 5.5% for Akash Network (AKT) and Ribbon Finance (RBN).

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.04 trillion, and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 49.1%.

 

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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