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Bleak economic picture expected in B.C.’s first fiscal update since start of COVID-19 pandemic – Globalnews.ca

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British Columbia’s finance minister is expected to paint a bleak picture of the pronvice’s economy on Tuesday, more than four months after the global coronavirus pandemic started.

Carole James will provide her first fiscal update since February’s budget and is expected to show forecasted deficits for at least the next three years.

The province has earmarked $5 billion for immediate coronavirus financial relief, including $1.5 billion put aside for economic recovery.

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The province has also seen a sharp decline in revenues associated with a significant drop-off in tourism and consumer spending.






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B.C. adds jobs but lags behind other provinces in COVID-19 recovery


B.C. adds jobs but lags behind other provinces in COVID-19 recovery

“We all know the profound impact COVID-19 has had around the globe, across our country and in fact right here in British Columbia,” James said.

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“Tomorrow I will be giving a summary of that impact on our province, the impact on the people of our province.”

Read more:
B.C. employment affected by COVID-19 more than any other province: poll

Economists are mixed on what the overall impact will be on British Columbia’s economy. The Business Council of British Columbia is forecasting the provincial economy will shrink by 7.8 per cent. Deloitte expects B.C.’s economy to shrink by around five per cent this year.

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The financial outlook would be worse if a second wave of the virus comes in the fall. A second wave could potentially lead to more economic instability globally.

“I wish I had a crystal ball that could show us where we are going,” James said. “There are so many pieces, so many risks ahead, that continue to show the uncertainty. Whether it’s a second wave, or a shift in other jurisdictions that impact our exports and the work we do here.”

Read more:
Canadians facing CERB gap receive explanation via government email

The B.C. government has introduced legislation legally allowing it to run deficits. Previously, British Columbia was not allowed to run budget deficits.

In February, James introduced a budget with a $227-million surplus, but the COVID-19 crisis has rattled the foundations of the province’s fiscal outlook.

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The federal government is expecting the national deficit to soar to $343 billion this year. Finance Minister Bill Morneau warned last week the national economy may never go back to normal and there is no indication of a roadmap for when or how the government plans to rein in spending.

The fiscal snapshot from Ottawa shows a very real likelihood that the Canadian economy and consumer habits may not soon — if ever — return to what they were pre-COVID-19.

B.C. Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson says even amidst the uncertainty the provincial government should outline an economic recovery plan.

“The federal government has spent almost $7,000 per person in Canada and the provincial NDP can’t figure out how to even spend $300 a person,” Wilkinson said.

“There are a lot of small businesses who are about to fail this fall. We’ve got families who are desperately trying to figure out what to do when school goes back because they don’t know which days are school days and that is going to hurt working women really hard because they won’t have a predictable opportunity to work.”

© 2020 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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Economy

China Wants Everyone to Trade In Their Old Cars, Fridges to Help Save Its Economy – Bloomberg

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China’s world-beating electric vehicle industry, at the heart of growing trade tensions with the US and Europe, is set to receive a big boost from the government’s latest effort to accelerate growth.

That’s one takeaway from what Beijing has revealed about its plan for incentives that will encourage Chinese businesses and households to adopt cleaner technologies. It’s widely expected to be one of this year’s main stimulus programs, though question-marks remain — including how much the government will spend.

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German Business Outlook Hits One-Year High as Economy Heals – BNN Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — German business sentiment improved to its highest level in a year — reinforcing recent signs that Europe’s largest economy is exiting two years of struggles.

An expectations gauge by the Ifo institute rose to 89.9. in April from a revised 87.7 the previous month. That exceeds the 88.9 median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. A measure of current conditions also advanced.

“Sentiment has improved at companies in Germany,” Ifo President Clemens Fuest said. “Companies were more satisfied with their current business. Their expectations also brightened. The economy is stabilizing, especially thanks to service providers.”

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A stronger global economy and the prospect of looser monetary policy in the euro zone are helping drag Germany out of the malaise that set in following Russia’s attack on Ukraine. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said last week that the country may have “turned the corner,” while Chancellor Olaf Scholz has also expressed optimism, citing record employment and retreating inflation.

There’s been a particular shift in the data in recent weeks, with the Bundesbank now estimating that output rose in the first quarter, having only a month ago foreseen a contraction that would have ushered in a first recession since the pandemic.

Even so, the start of the year “didn’t go great,” according to Fuest. 

“What we’re seeing at the moment confirms the forecasts, which are saying that growth will be weak in Germany, but at least it won’t be negative,” he told Bloomberg Television. “So this is the stabilization we expected. It’s not a complete recovery. But at least it’s a start.”

Monthly purchasing managers’ surveys for April brought more cheer this week as Germany returned to expansion for the first time since June 2023. Weak spots remain, however — notably in industry, which is still mired in a slump that’s being offset by a surge in services activity.

“We see an improving worldwide economy,” Fuest said. “But this doesn’t seem to reach German manufacturing, which is puzzling in a way.”

Germany, which was the only Group of Seven economy to shrink last year and has been weighing on the wider region, helped private-sector output in the 20-nation euro area strengthen this month, S&P Global said.

–With assistance from Joel Rinneby, Kristian Siedenburg and Francine Lacqua.

(Updates with more comments from Fuest starting in sixth paragraph.)

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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Parallel economy: How Russia is defying the West’s boycott

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When Moscow resident Zoya, 62, was planning a trip to Italy to visit her daughter last August, she saw the perfect opportunity to buy the Apple Watch she had long dreamed of owning.

Officially, Apple does not sell its products in Russia.

The California-based tech giant was one of the first companies to announce it would exit the country in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

But the week before her trip, Zoya made a surprise discovery while browsing Yandex.Market, one of several Russian answers to Amazon, where she regularly shops.

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Not only was the Apple Watch available for sale on the website, it was cheaper than in Italy.

Zoya bought the watch without a moment’s delay.

The serial code on the watch that was delivered to her home confirmed that it was manufactured by Apple in 2022 and intended for sale in the United States.

“In the store, they explained to me that these are genuine Apple products entering Russia through parallel imports,” Zoya, who asked to be only referred to by her first name, told Al Jazeera.

“I thought it was much easier to buy online than searching for a store in an unfamiliar country.”

Nearly 1,400 companies, including many of the most internationally recognisable brands, have since February 2022 announced that they would cease or dial back their operations in Russia in protest of Moscow’s military aggression against Ukraine.

But two years after the invasion, many of these companies’ products are still widely sold in Russia, in many cases in violation of Western-led sanctions, a months-long investigation by Al Jazeera has found.

Aided by the Russian government’s legalisation of parallel imports, Russian businesses have established a network of alternative supply chains to import restricted goods through third countries.

The companies that make the products have been either unwilling or unable to clamp down on these unofficial distribution networks.

 

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