The feud between Brazil’s two most powerful political power brokers that played out mostly behind the scenes for months has now spilled into the open, as president Jair Bolsonaro and Rodrigo Maia, the speaker of Congress’s lower house, scramble for dominance.
At a rally outside a military base this weekend, Mr Bolsonaro joined protesters calling for Mr Maia to be ousted over the speaker’s support for social isolation measures to curb the spread of coronavirus, which the president has publicly flouted. Carla Zambelli, a pro-Bolsonaro lawmaker, said they were calling for the “investigation and arrest” of Mr Maia.
Many in the crowd bore placards calling for the restoration of military rule in scenes that drew condemnation from lawmakers, judges and even the Brazilian military. A day later, the Brazilian president declared “I am the constitution,” as he urged an end lockdowns.
Days earlier, he accused Mr Maia of trying to “stick a knife” in the federal government by conspiring with the nation’s governors — who call the president “Bolsovirus” — to oust him. Mr Maia responded: “In Brazil we have to fight against corona and the virus of authoritarianism. I repudiate any and all acts that defend dictatorship and undermine the constitution.”
For Mr Bolsonaro, the conflict is a dangerous gamble as the impact of coronavirus stokes tension across the nation. As house speaker, Mr Maia not only controls the legislative agenda — including vital economic reform plans — but he also has the power to push forward the numerous requests he had already received for the impeachment of the Brazilian leader.
The president, however, appears to have made the calculation that attacking a political heavyweight will keep his base energised as the coronavirus crisis continues to polarise Brazilian politics. A fifth-term lawmaker whose term ends in January, Mr Maia embodies the “dissatisfaction with Congress” felt by supporters of Mr Bolsonaro, said Thiago de Aragão of Arko Advice, a Brasília-based political consultancy.
“Bolsonaro must be careful: if the government is going to get into a war to liposuction Maia out of his job and then appoint his successor, they better win,” added Alon Feuerwerker, a political analyst with consultancy FSB.
Beyond the public recriminations, the conflict between the two men is playing out behind the scenes, with Mr Bolsonaro attempting to form allegiances with the adversaries of the speaker in Congress, according to lawmakers. The two men were reluctant allies throughout Mr Bolsonaro’s first year in office last year, with Mr Maia playing a crucial role in the passage of government-sponsored pension reform legislation in October.
Relations soured, however, after Mr Maia spoke out publicly and repeatedly against the president’s controversial identity politics and culture wars. While Mr Bolsonaro’s manoeuvres are unlikely to succeed in ousting Mr Maia, they may help influence the election of a new speaker early next year.
The strategy, however, demands that the president engage in the “old politics” of horse-trading — tactics that Mr Bolsonaro has long criticised — to lure back support from the so-called centrão, the large agglomeration of centrist parties known for their patronage-seeking politics. In recent days, Mr Bolsonaro has been offering government posts with big budgets to members of the bloc, according to local media reports. “He is buying the centre’s support in the crudest way,” said a member of the centrão.
But the speaker has also left himself vulnerable, by alienating fellow lawmakers, according to a senior member of Mr Maia’s Democratas party. “He won’t have complete solidarity in the moment when Bolsonaro approaches the centrão promising power,” said the member, who is critical of Mr Maia.
Mr Maia still remains powerful, however, with control over the legislative agenda and the 24 impeachments requests already tabled against Mr Bolsonaro — although he is unlikely to act on them, given there is little appetite for more upheaval at the moment, congressional insiders said.
Unlike former leftist president Dilma Rousseff, who was impeached after her popularity plummeted, Mr Bolsonaro still maintains a staunch power base and an approval rate of about 30 per cent.
Much of Brazil’s political landscape is likely to be defined in the coming months by the impact of coronavirus. Images of coffins rapidly filing up cemeteries in the Amazonian city of Manaus notwithstanding, a death toll of 3,300 remains relatively low compared with the US and some European nations.
However, if fatalities swiftly begin to mount nationwide, Mr Bolsonaro’s breezy dismissal of the virus is likely to come back to haunt him. Equally, if the economic impact of statewide lockdowns becomes very profound, the president stands to benefit from his steadfast opposition to self-isolation.
Asked this week about the number of deaths so far, the fiery Brazilian president refused to discuss specifics: “I am not a gravedigger, OK?”
Additional reporting by Carolina Pulice
