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Brazil Economy Grows at Slowest Pace in Three Years – The Wall Street Journal

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An assembly line at a plant of Brazilian cosmetics company Natura in Cajamar, Brazil.



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nelson almeida/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

SÃO PAULO—Brazil’s economy expanded at the slowest pace in three years in 2019 as the government of President Jair Bolsonaro cut spending and investment slowed.

Gross domestic product grew 1.1% last year, after expanding 1.3% in each of the previous two years, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, or IBGE, said Wednesday. GDP increased 0.5% in the fourth quarter, down from 0.6% in the previous three months.

It was another disappointing year for Brazil’s economy, with growth coming in at less than half the 2.5% forecast by economists at the start of 2019. The year had begun with optimism about Mr. Bolsonaro’s plan to overhaul the country’s insolvent pension system and cut the government deficit, but the outlook and the country’s low interest rates weren’t enough to overcome businesses’ reluctance to boost investment.

The president, who took office on Jan. 1 of last year, moved quickly to try to rein in outlays, making cuts to education, environmental protection and other areas and resulting in a 0.4% decline in government spending in 2019. State investment bank BNDES also slashed lending as the government hoped to spur companies to invest more.

“The private sector was too used to having government help and is still struggling to fill the gap,” said Jason Vieira, chief economist of São Paulo based brokerage Infinity Asset.

A delay to the approval of the pension overhaul also hurt growth in the year. Expectations the bill could be passed by lawmakers in the first half of last year proved to be optimistic. Many companies put investments on hold while waiting to see the final result of the legislation, pushing back the start of some projects and new hires until after it was approved in October.

Growth of gross fixed-capital formation, a measure of investment, slowed to 2.2% in 2019, after increasing 3.9% a year earlier, the IBGE said Wednesday.

The passage of the pension law should boost the economy going forward by freeing up more cash for the government to cut debt, as will Brazil’s unprecedentedly low interest rates, according to economists and investors. The central bank trimmed its benchmark lending rate to a record low 4.25% in February, down from 14.25% in 2016.

The low rates helped some businesses last year, with many reducing their financial costs by refinancing debt, and others getting a boost from demand among Brazilians with access to cheaper loans or people seeking higher returns on their investments.

When the central bank’s benchmark rate was above 14%, “people earned 1% a month on their money, but now they’re getting only about 1% a year, and they’re looking for better places to invest,” said Gabriel Kallas, chief executive of online brokerage Toro Investimentos.

The number of Brazilians investing in the stock market has soared in recent years as returns on fixed-income instruments have fallen along with lending rates, and the money moving from bank accounts to equities will also help boost growth going forward, Mr. Kallas said.

Brazil was also marked last year by a tragedy in the small, rural town of Brumadinho that killed 270 people and hit economic growth. At the end of January, a mining waste dam owned by

Vale SA,

the world’s biggest iron ore producer, collapsed and sent a wave of thick mud sweeping over nearby company offices and a lunch room and into part of the town.

Vale moved quickly to shut down production near other, similar dams around the country to avoid another disaster. Brazilian authorities also ordered the closing of more mines over safety concerns. The closings slashed the company’s output of iron ore by more than 20% in 2019 from 2018, contributing to a 1.1% decline in output by extractive industries last year.

Write to Jeffrey T. Lewis at jeffrey.lewis@wsj.com

Copyright ©2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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Economy

Statistics Canada reports real GDP grew 0.2% in July

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says real gross domestic product grew 0.2 per cent in July, following essentially no change in June, helped by strength in the retail trade sector.

The agency says the growth came as services-producing industries grew 0.2 per cent for the month.

The retail trade sector was the largest contributor to overall growth in July as it gained one per cent, helped by the motor vehicles and parts dealers subsector which gained 2.8 per cent.

The public sector aggregate, which includes the educational services, health care and social assistance, and public administration sectors, gained 0.3 per cent, while the finance and insurance sector rose 0.5 per cent.

Meanwhile, goods-producing industries gained 0.1 per cent in July as the utilities sector rose 1.3 per cent and the manufacturing sector grew 0.3 per cent.

Statistics Canada’s early estimate for August suggests real GDP for the month was essentially unchanged, as increases in oil and gas extraction and the public sector were offset by decreases in manufacturing and transportation and warehousing.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 27, 2024.

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S&P/TSX composite tops 24,000 points for first time, U.S. markets also rise Thursday

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index closed above 24,000 for the first time Thursday as strength in base metals and other sectors outweighed losses in energy, while U.S. markets also rose and the S&P 500 notched another record as well.

“Another day, another record,” said Angelo Kourkafas, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones.

“The path of least resistance continues to be higher.”

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 127.95 points at 24,033.83.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 260.36 points at 42,175.11. The S&P 500 index was up 23.11 points at 5,745.37, while the Nasdaq composite was up 108.09 points at 18,190.29.

Markets continue to be optimistic about an economic soft landing, said Kourkafas, after the U.S. Federal Reserve last week announced an outsized cut to its key interest rate following months of speculation about when it would start easing policy.

Economic data Thursday added to the story that the U.S. economy remains resilient despite higher rates, said Kourkafas.

The U.S. economy grew at a three-per-cent annual rate in the second quarter, one report said, picking up from the first quarter of the year. Another report showed fewer U.S. workers applied for unemployment benefits last week.

The data shows “the economy remains on strong footing while the Fed is pivoting now in a decisive way towards an easier policy,” said Kourkafas.

The Fed’s decisive move gave investors more reason to believe that a soft landing is still the “base case scenario,” he said, “and likely reduces the downside risks for a recession by having the Fed moving too late or falling behind the curve.”

North of the border, the TSX usually gets a boost from Wall St. strength, said Kourkafas, but on Thursday the index also reflected some optimism of its own as the Bank of Canada has already cut rates three times to address weakening in the economy.

“The Bank of Canada likely now will be emboldened by the Fed,” he said.

“They didn’t want to move too far ahead of the Fed, and now that the Fed moved in a bigger-than-expected way, that provides more room for the Bank of Canada to cut as aggressively as needed to support the economy, given that inflation is within the target range.”

The TSX has also been benefiting from strength in materials after China’s central bank announced several measures meant to support the company’s economy, said Kourkafas.

However, energy stocks dragged on the Canadian index as oil prices fell Thursday following a report that Saudi Arabia was preparing to abandon its unofficial US$100-per-barrel price target for crude as it prepares to increase its output.

The Canadian dollar traded for 74.22 cents US compared with 74.28 cents US on Wednesday.

The November crude oil contract was down US$2.02 at US$67.67 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down seven cents at US$2.75 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$10.20 at US$2,694.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up 15 cents at US$4.64 a pound.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 26, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stocks also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal sector, while U.S. stock markets were also higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was 143.00 points at 24,048.88.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 174.22 points at 42,088.97. The S&P 500 index was up 10.23 points at 5,732.49, while the Nasdaq composite was up 30.02 points at 18,112.23.

The Canadian dollar traded for 74.23 cents US compared with 74.28 cents US on Wednesday.

The November crude oil contract was down US$1.68 at US$68.01 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down six cents at US$2.75 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$4.40 at US$2,689.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up 13 cents at US$4.62 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 26, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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