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Britain's Economy Has Transformed During Queen's 70-Year Reign – BNN

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(Bloomberg) — Sign up for the New Economy Daily newsletter, follow us @economics and subscribe to our podcast.

The UK economy of 2022 is barely recognizable from the one that greeted Queen Elizabeth II 70 years ago.

Butter, bacon and meat were rationed in 1952 as World War II cast a long shadow over an economy that was just a fifth of current size. Money was counted in shillings, men wore ties even on days off and pub goers could enjoy pints of beer for just 6p.

Today, suits and cash are both a far less familiar sight in the British pub, while wine and gin have both become much more popular tipples. Houses that once could be bought on one income now require two. 

But some problems of that era remain familiar. Inflation was at 11.2% when Elizabeth became Queen — within a whisker of the level economists expect to see later this year.

Following are charts that describe the massive shifts the economy has seen since the coronation in 1952.

The UK as a whole is richer and healthier. The cohort born in 1952 had incomes higher than the average of their fellow citizens throughout their lives, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies. At age 70, men and women can both expect to live seven years longer than they did seven decades ago.

The economy meanwhile has had a number of booms and busts. Oil shocks, currency crises, financial crashes along with Britain’s exit from the European Union and the pandemic have bookended periods of rapid growth. The overwhelming trend has been one of expansion. 

Much of that increase has been fueled by a boom in services, which have flourished as the manufacturing sector receded. While the “big bang” deregulation of banking made Britain a global financial center, the portion of jobs done in factories has plunged to just 7%, from almost 30% in 1952.

Nowhere has Britain’s transformation been more apparent than in the housing market. The average house price has jumped from less than £2,000 — the equivalent of around £60,000 today — to a record £270,000, according to Nationwide Building Society. 

It means housing has vastly outpaced inflation and earnings growth, and in some years generated more wealth for homeowners than they gained from employment. Those increases have strained the finances of people buying property. Many families require two incomes now to get on the housing ladder, whereas in 1952 it was mainly the salary of men that provided.

Homeownership surged in the second half of the last century. The shift accelerated under Margaret Thatcher, who promoted her vision of a “property-owning democracy” by encouraging council tenants to purchases their homes in the 1980s. 

However, the trend has gone into reverse in the past 20 years because of the sharp increase in house prices.

The boom in house prices over the past decade was supercharged by record-low interest rates. Since it was founded in 1694, the Bank of England’s benchmark lending rate never strayed below 2% until 2009. 

Then the financial crisis hit, followed by a period of sluggish growth and the coronavirus pandemic. The BOE responded by pushing rates close to zero and buying bonds to depress market rates. Now that inflation has reached a 40-year high, that era is screaming to a halt.

Across the 70 years inflation has averaged just shy of 5%, leaving prices almost 24 times higher in total across the period.

The UK is no longer the trading force it was. In 1960, it accounted for almost 9% of world merchandise exports. Now its share is little more than 2%. 

The decline came as manufacturing shifted to lower-cost economies such as China. A further period of weakness followed Brexit, with exports recovering from the pandemic less strongly than in neighboring countries.

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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