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Budget 2022: Flush from booming economy, Feds eye growth with $31B in new spending – Energeticcity.ca

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The new spending has increased the fiscal year’s deficit to $52.8 billion from earlier estimates of $44.1 billion.

Government officials framed the spending as a hedge against near-term economic uncertainty created by Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and the sixth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

But the Liberals also say the spending is aimed at the long-term as well to address structural issues within the national economy that could hold back growth in the long-term.

It’s why the government is reprofiling $15 billion in existing spending for a new fund designed to lower business investment risk for research and new technologies, $3.8 billion over eight years for a critical minerals strategy, and $450 million over five years to unclog supply chains.

The document also commits to spending money from budgets past by forcing provinces to allocate nearly $7.3 billion in outstanding infrastructure dollars by next March or risk losing the money. Timelines to spend the money have also been pushed back from 2027 to 2033.

Overall, the budget points to a government admitting there are hurdles to Canada’s long-term growth prospects, though falls short of a detailed economic strategy, said Robert Asselin, senior vice-president policy with the Business Council of Canada.

The budget forecasts 3.9 per cent economic growth this year but expects that to slow over the ensuing four years to average 2.9 per cent annual growth in real gross domestic product. Inflation too is expected to fall from 3.9 per cent this year – an upward revision to December’s fiscal update – before starting next year to fall toward the Bank of Canada’s target of two per cent.

Unemployment is expected to stay at a low of 5.5 per cent over the forecast horizon.

Economist Armine Yalnizyan, an Atkinson Fellow on the Future of Workers, said the budget was a missed opportunity invest in health-care workers — for example, to keep workers from leaving the care economy that accounts for one-fifth of GDP, and which other workers rely on.

Total spending is this fiscal year will decline to $452.3 billion, including debt servicing costs, from the $497.9 billion in the preceding 12-month period as emergency pandemic aid measures end.

Even with the emergency spending, the budget forecasts the debt as a percentage of the economy will hit 45.1 per cent this year and decline over the coming years, including in a worst-case scenario envisioned in the document.

Randall Bartlett, senior director of Canadian economics at Desjardins, said the government has put some of its financial windfall into the bank for a rainy day given the uncertain environment, and held back on moving ahead with a handful of election promises in this budget.

To pay for some of the new spending, the government is rolling out a tax on excess profits at banks and insurance companies that the Finance Department expects to reel in $6.1 billion over five years. There is also a warning shot to the country’s top earners that the government plans to change their minimum tax with details later this year.

The Liberals are also promising a spending review to find $6 billion in savings over five years. A progress report is promised for next year’s budget.

Here are some of the highlights from the 2022 budget:

— $452.3 billion in new spending on projected revenue of $408.4 billion for a deficit of $52.8 billion. The debt to GDP ratio is pegged at 45.1 per cent.

— $4 billion over the next five years to launch a new fund in the Canada Housing and Mortgage Corporation to help cities and municipalities create more affordable housing, and $1.5 billion over two years to the CMHC’s Rapid Housing Initiative to create 6,000 new affordable housing units with at least one-quarter of the funding dedicated to women-focused projects.

— $625 million over four years, starting in 2023-24, for child care, to help the provinces and territories build new facilities and make new investments. The new funding is a followup to the various federal child-care agreements with the provinces and territories after they raised concerns that non-profit and public providers were facing soaring real estate and building material costs.

— $1 billion over five years, starting in 2022-23, to create an independent federal innovation and investment agency. The measure is designed to spur economic growth and address the fact that Canada is ranked last in the G7 in spending on research and development by business.

— The defence budget got new money with more than $8 billion pledged over five years to better equip the Canadian Armed Forces, reinforce cybersecurity and support a culture of change. The budget contained no road map on whether this would be enough to boost Canada’s defence spending to the NATO target of two per cent of GDP, as the alliance works to bolster Europe following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

— Up to $1 billion in new loan resources for the Ukrainian government through the International Monetary Fund to help keep its embattled government operating.

— $4 billion over six years, starting in 2021-22, to remove systemic barriers to First Nations children receiving services in health, education and social services. The funds are part of the government’s commitment to Jordan’s Principle, which started in 2016.

— $5.3 billion over five years starting in 2022-23 and $1.7 billion ongoing to Health Canada to provide dental care to Canadians as a result of the Liberal-NDP agreement. The plan will start with children under 12 in 2022 at an initial cost of $300 million.

— $1.7 billion over five years starting in 2022-23 to help make zero-emission vehicles more affordable for people. The Canadian Infrastructure Bank will spend $500 million over five years to build infrastructure to support the 1,500 charging stations that the government has promised to build throughout Canada.

— $547 million over four years starting in 2022-23 to help businesses upgrade their fleets to zero-emission vehicles.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 7, 2022.

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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