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Business and consumer sentiment sours, while inflationary pressures ease, BoC surveys find

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Canadian business and consumer sentiment continues to sour in the face of rising interest rates, while expectations of future inflation have begun to level off. These factors could influence the Bank of Canada as it considers slowing, or perhaps pausing, interest rate hikes in the coming weeks.

A pair of surveys released by the central bank on Monday show consumers are cutting back on spending and many companies expect a slowdown in sales. The majority of respondents to both surveys believe the Canadian economy will enter a recession in the coming year, although most expect it will be a mild to moderate slowdown.

The Business Outlook Survey, conducted from mid-November to early December, also showed that companies are experiencing less intense labour and supply chain constraints. That suggests inflationary pressures are easing.

While the pair of surveys paint a downbeat picture of the Canadian economy at the end of 2022, they suggest the Bank of Canada’s interest rate hikes are having their intended effect. The bank raised borrowing costs seven times last year, intentionally squeezing households and companies in an effort to bring runaway inflation back under control.

The surveys will be a key input in the central bank’s Jan. 25 interest rate decision. After its latest rate hike in December, the central bank said that it was becoming more “data dependent,” hinting that it’s near the end of its historic rate-hike cycle and open to a potential pause as early as this month.

Most Bay Street analysts expect at least one more 25-basis-point rate hike on Jan. 25, given the stronger-than-expected inflation report for November and a blockbuster December jobs report. That would bring the Bank of Canada’s policy rate to 4.5 per cent.

“This report will be welcome news given ongoing concerns surrounding the persistence of price pressures and an environment of material excess demand,” Andrew Kelvin, Toronto-Dominion Bank’s chief Canada strategist, wrote in a note to clients.

“As much as recent reading on employment and prices argue for additional tightening, the survey data very much suggests that the Bank may be quite close to the end of its tightening cycle.”

The Business Outlook Survey Indicator, which pulls together various survey responses into a single data point, dropped to near zero, the lowest level since the third quarter of 2020. More businesses than usual said they expect their sales to slow in the coming year, while many dialled back plans to hire new workers and invest in new machinery and equipment.

On a more positive note, business capacity pressures appear to be easing.

“Although still above pre-pandemic levels, the number of businesses reporting labour and supply chain bottlenecks as obstacles to meeting an unanticipated increase in demand has declined. This suggests that the gap between demand and supply is narrowing,” the central bank said in the survey report.

Companies still expect inflation to remain well above the bank’s target of 2 per cent annual Consumer Price Index inflation for several years. But the average estimate for inflation two years from now continued to decline, falling to 4.18 per cent from a high of 4.78 per cent in the survey last June.

Canadian consumers also expect inflation to remain high for the foreseeable future, according to the Survey of Consumer Expectations, conducted from late October to mid-November. That said, expectations about inflation one year and two years out have levelled off, after rising quickly since mid-2021. And expectations for inflation in five years’ time have fallen noticeably in the past two quarters.

Inflation expectations are a key variable for the Bank of Canada. What workers and businesses believe about future inflation can impact wage negotiations and price-setting behaviour. The central bank remains concerned that the longer inflation stays high, the more likely that it will become baked into people’s psychology, making the bank’s inflation control job more difficult.

Overall consumer sentiment is gloomy. Survey respondents reported spending more on necessities and less on discretionary items, as high inflation and rising interest rates both squeeze their finances. More than half of all survey respondents did not expect their wages would keep pace with inflation.

Moreover, a growing share of consumers are postponing large purchases. This is especially the case for homeowners with variable-rate mortgages, who have seen their monthly debt-servicing costs rise rapidly, the bank said.

“The BoC’s aggressive rate hikes through 2022 have clearly weighed on economic sentiment among both businesses and consumers,” Bank of Montreal economist Shelly Kaushik said in a note to clients.

“However, still-elevated inflation expectations will keep the Bank on alert. This survey is consistent with our call of a 25 bp rate hike at next week’s meeting, after which we anticipate the Bank will hold interest rates steady through the remainder of 2023.”

The central bank will get crucial inflation data on Tuesday, when Statistics Canada publishes the Consumer Price Index report for December.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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