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Business Cheers Ramaphosa's Plan to Reopen South African Economy – BNNBloomberg.ca

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(Bloomberg) —

South African business leaders lauded the government’s plan to substantially ease a nationwide lockdown that’s crippled the economy, even as the number of the coronavirus cases grows exponentially.

An additional 8 million people will be allowed to return to work when the national disease-alert level drops one notch from June 1, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced on Sunday night. His administration abandoned previous plans to maintain more stringent restrictions in several cities and towns hardest hit by the disease, but cautioned it’s still an option.

While other nations have opened up after the pandemic peaked, South Africa is relaxing its rules when cases are still on an upward trajectory — a third of its 22,583 infections were diagnosed in the past week alone. But with unemployment and business closures skyrocketing and the central bank anticipating a 7% economic contraction this year, Ramaphosa acknowledged that maintaining the lockdown had become unsustainable.

“We believe that the decision announced by the president is best for the country given where we find ourselves now,” said Sipho Pityana, the president of lobby group Business Unity South Africa. “It is time for many of us to return to work, but to do so in as safe way as possible.”

The rand advanced as much as 0.5% against the dollar on Monday, and was 0.1% stronger at 17.6290 at 12:11 p.m. in Johannesburg. It was just one of three emerging-market currencies to post gains against the greenback.

Rational Analysis

Africa’s most-industrialized economy went into lockdown on March 27, with only grocers, pharmacies and suppliers of essential services allowed to keep operating. The rules were relaxed May 1, but many businesses have remained partially or completely shut. Ramaphosa first announced plans for a further easing of restrictions on May 13, but gave few details.

While the government had previously been accused of taking arbitrary decisions, its response now appears to be based on a rational analysis of the available options to protect the economy and fight the pandemic, said Busi Mavuso, chief executive officer of lobby group Business Leadership South Africa.

Ramaphosa has “shown great leadership in resetting the course of government’s response when it has become clear that it is needed,” she said in her weekly newsletter. “The shift to level three next week is important and welcome. It will allow more of the economy to reopen and for people to earn a living.”

Under the new rules, limited alcohol sales for home use will be allowed to resume, while a night-time curfew and a restriction on when people can exercise will be dropped. Tobacco sales will remain banned because of the health risks associated with smoking. Eat-in restaurants, bars, sporting venues, places of worship and conference centers will also be barred from reopening.

While the reopening of the economy is welcome, the announcement was six weeks overdue, said John Steenhuisen, the acting leader of the main opposition Democratic Alliance.

“There was no rational justification to extend the hard lockdown beyond the initial three weeks, and this extension has now caused irreparable damage to our economy,” he said. “The resulting hardship and suffering –- and ultimately, the premature deaths of South African citizens due to this” could have been avoided, he said.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Economy

Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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