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Economy

C$ outshines G10 peers as oil posts multi-year high

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The Canadian dollar edged up against its broadly stronger U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as oil prices climbed to their highest level since 2014 and investors bet that the Bank of Canada would raise interest rates as soon as next week.

The loonie was trading 0.1% higher at 1.2503 to the greenback, or 79.98 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.2487 to 1.2563. It was the only G10 currency to gain ground against the greenback.

The move higher in crude prices “is supporting some oil proxies in the FX space,” said Bipan Rai, North America head of FX Strategy at CIBC Capital Markets.

Canada is a major producer of oil, which settled 1.9% higher at $85.43 a barrel as possible supply disruption after attacks in the Middle East added to an already tight supply outlook.

The U.S. dollar was bolstered by a jump in U.S. Treasury yields as traders prepared for the Federal Reserve to be more aggressive in tackling unabated inflation.

Canadian inflation data for December is due on Wednesday, which could offer clues on the Bank of Canada interest rate outlook.

Canadian restrictions to tackle COVID-19 will likely come at a cost of slower economic growth at the start of the year than in the United States, but that has not stopped investors from raising bets the BoC will hike interest rates at the Jan. 26 policy announcement.

Data from the overnight index swaps market shows the chances of a hike next week at nearly 70%.

Canadian housing starts fell 22% in December compared with the previous month as both multiple urban and single-detached urban starts decreased, data showed.

Canadian government bonds tracked the move in U.S. Treasuries. The 10-year yield climbed 7.6 basis points to 1.882%, its highest level since March 2019.

 

(Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Nick Zieminski and Andrea Ricci)

Economy

PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales fell 1.3% to $69.4B in August

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales in August fell to their lowest level since January 2022 as sales in the primary metal and petroleum and coal product subsectors fell.

The agency says manufacturing sales fell 1.3 per cent to $69.4 billion in August, after rising 1.1 per cent in July.

The drop came as sales in the primary metal subsector dropped 6.4 per cent to $5.3 billion in August, on lower prices and lower volumes.

Sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector fell 3.7 per cent to $7.8 billion in August on lower prices.

Meanwhile, sales of aerospace products and parts rose 7.3 per cent to $2.7 billion in August and wood product sales increased 3.8 per cent to $3.1 billion.

Overall manufacturing sales in constant dollars fell 0.8 per cent in August.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

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