A University of Calgary economist is calling on the province to implement stricter COVID-19 measures to reduce the damage to Alberta’s economy in the long run.
On Nov. 12 the province announced two weeks of limited measures to help stop the spread of the novel coronavirus, including suspending indoor team sports in some regions and instituting further restrictions on restaurants and bars.
“Those are kind of symbolic,” said Aidan Hollis a professor of economics at the University of Calgary, specializing in pharmaceutical markets.
“There’s an opportunity to maybe reduce a little bit of transmission and it’s a signal to the population. I don’t think it will have been effective and it’s not really telling people you need to be very careful.”
Hollis admits shutting down business will have harmful affects on some businesses and workers, but he said the province still must impose more restrictions.
“The question is do we want to do that earlier or later? If we wait until later, it’s going to have to be more restrictions and for longer; that is going to harm the economy even worse and it will harm those individual workers even more,” Hollis said.
“Now is the time to begin looking at what can we do to stop this thing from getting out of control.”
Hollis said a partial shutdown is about more than just reducing the spread of the virus — it’s about making people feel safer to go out in the long run.
“No one is going to look in the future at a province that had thousands of deaths and say, ‘Good job — you didn’t take a stronger stand and you were able to keep some restaurants open,’” he said.
Some Albertans are arguing for exemptions under the province’s two weeks of limited restrictions.
“I do feel that these activities are essential for the health and well-being of children and it’s essential for us to keep these small businesses running as well,” said Mandi Sutherland, a ballet examiner with the Royal Academy of Dance.
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“You can’t put a number or a price on the lack of consumer confidence that then flows from those closures.”
Sutherland has been in talks with several Alberta ministers about getting exemptions for dance studios. She said they are able to operate with a maximum of five people in a room and must keep activities “low exertion.”
“Dance studios have followed the exact same protocols for COVID and prevention of transmission as the school system. So if it’s safe for them (children) to be in school, it’s safe for them to be in dance studios,” Sutherland said.
Dr. Deena Hinshaw, Alberta’s chief medical officer of health, said on Friday that it’s been challenging to get the right balance between stopping the spread, while maintaining jobs and activities.
“Of course, I am concerned the measures that we have put in place over the past several months may have somewhat slowed the growth but they have not bent the curve as much as we need to,” Hinshaw said.
Hinshaw said she’s taken many factors into consideration when making her recommendations.
“It has been challenging to consider what the right balance is and what that right suite of measures would be to be able to bring down COVID-19 while maintaining the mental health benefits of activity and socialization, the benefits of being employed, the benefits of being able to have physical activity.”
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Hinshaw said she wanted to be able to give as much opportunity as possible to try to control the pandemic with measures that had the minimum impacts on people’s health in other ways.
Hollis said a three week limited closure could still give businesses a chance to be open for some Christmas revenue but adds it needs to come with appropriate compensation for workers and businesses.
Hollis is concerned about the challenges faced by some people who are working in places where the virus may be at risk of spreading.
“From an economic perspective that’s a very tough problem — when you have to put yourself at risk in order to make money because you need that to keep your family afloat,” he said.
“The problem of just saying, ‘You are on your own right now and we are not going to have any kind of mandatory shut down of business, even though it’s pretty risky for you and it’s increasing infections in the general population,’ that’s pretty brutal.”
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
