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Calgary Heritage byelection test of right-wing parties' strength: political scientist – Calgary Herald

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‘We’ve got a lot of different conservative candidates and if (changes in momentum) happen, it might be on the conservative side’

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A looming federal byelection in a Conservative stronghold in south Calgary could be most relevant as a brawl between parties on the political right, says a political scientist.

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Voters in Calgary Heritage head to the polls Monday to replace a Conservative Party of Canada MP who stepped down last January in the riding once held by former prime minister Stephen Harper.

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Bob Benzen announced last October that he wouldn’t run again, citing a wish not to become “a career politician,” prompting Prime Minister Justin Trudeau last month to call a byelection for the riding.

The Conservatives won the riding handily in the Sept. 20, 2021, federal election, capturing 57.7 per cent of the vote, with the NDP finishing a distant second with 17.4 per cent.

The Liberals garnered 16.7 per cent of the vote.

The People’s Party of Canada, which some thought could siphon strength from the Conservatives, proved a limited factor in that election with five per cent of ballots cast.

But with at least four of the eight candidates contesting the byelection falling on the right of the political spectrum, the byelection is likely to prove more of a referendum on the strength of the various conservative parties heading toward the 2025 general election, said Mount Royal University political scientist Lori Williams.

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“We’ve got a lot of different conservative candidates and if (changes in momentum) happen, it might be on the conservative side,” said Williams.

“Are they growing or staying the same? Those parties will be looking at the margins . . . it could have some indications for the upcoming (2025) federal election.”

After a recent succession of leadership races and a provincial election, as well as the fact the byelection is happening in the middle of summer, many voters will likely tune out — but the federal Conservatives under Leader Pierre Poilievre should still win easily, she said.

  1. The Conservative Party's Bob Benzen speaks to supporters after winning the federal riding of Calgary Heritage on Monday April 3, 2017.

    Date set for Calgary Heritage federal byelection

  2. Four new MPs are set to be elected to the House of Commons Monday, during a stream of byelections that political watchers say could lead to a new Liberal cabinet minister, and test the Conservative party as it deals with internal fighting over one of its seats. An arrow points to where people can go to cast their ballots in Montreal, Monday, September 20, 2021.

    Conservatives cruise to victory over Bernier’s PPC, Liberals retain seats in federal byelections

  3. Conservative Party Bob Benzen speaks to supporters after winning the federal riding of Calgary Heritage on Monday April 3, 2017.

    Calgary Heritage byelection coming following MP’s retirement

While the CPC’s total stranglehold on Alberta weakened by 14 per cent in 2021, with the Liberals claiming two seats in the province and the NDP one, ripping Calgary Heritage from their grasp is considered a long shot.

Four federal byelections last month failed to appreciably alter the political equation, with the Conservatives and Liberals each retaining two seats.

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In three of those races, the Liberals polled better than their previous results but the party shouldn’t expect to replicate that in Calgary Heritage, said Williams.

Conservative candidate has ties to Stephen Harper

Carrying the Conservative Party banner in Harper’s former riding is a man who works closely with the former PM — Calgary native Shuvaloy Majumdar.

A longtime party staffer and foreign policy adviser, Majumdar is a director of Harper’s consulting firm and counts himself a friend of Poilievre.

His campaign didn’t respond to a request for an interview.

But his LinkedIn page says he’s “a nationally recognized and respected thought leader in Canadian foreign policy and national security — advocating for Canadian energy, confronting foreign authoritarians interfering in the lives of Canadians, and promoting a principled vision for Calgary and our country in a disrupted world.”

NDP candidate looks to build party’s presence in Calgary

NDP candidate Gurmit Bhachu called Majumdar “a Harper clone” but doesn’t think his ties to the ex-PM will have an effect on the race.

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Bhachu said he doesn’t expect to prevail but notes the NDP has nearly doubled its share of the vote in the riding over the past two elections.

“My role is to keep chipping away — there are Conservatives moving to the NDP, which is awesome,” said Bhachu, a Grade 4 teacher with the Calgary Board of Education.

He said concerns over affordability and health care play well in the NDP’s favour, given the party’s efforts in pushing the Trudeau government toward wider pharmaceutical and dental coverage.

“Those things would save Canadians a lot of money,” said Bhachu, who ran for the NDP in 2019 and 2021 in nearby Calgary Midnapore.

Liberal candidate ‘putting out a really positive message’

A Conservative victory isn’t a foregone conclusion, said Liberal hopeful Elliot Weinstein.

“We’ve been working really hard, we’ve been putting out a really positive message that’s resonating at the doors,” he said.

He wouldn’t deny the unpopularity in Calgary of Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, but emphasized he’s running on his own name and background.

“It’s my name on the ballot — I put myself forward as a small-business owner and family person,” said Weinstein.

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His campaign, he said, is trying to appeal to other progressive voters who might normally lean toward the NDP with a pitch that, if elected, he’ll “be stepping right into government,” adding he’s serious about addressing environmental issues.

And Weinstein said he’s heard some rumblings of dissatisfaction with Poilievre among some Conservatives in Calgary Heritage.

People’s Party of Canada candidate looks to ‘hold people accountable’

People’s Party of Canada candidate Kelly Lorencz said he agrees with Williams’ prediction the byelection could have relevance as a showdown among conservatives.

“But we need to find ways to work together and address the concerns Canadians have,” said Lorencz, a military veteran and ex-corrections officer who’s the party’s “western lieutenant.”

He said his campaign in the riding “has been really, really well-received, which has surprised me . . . we need another set of eyes in Ottawa, we’ve got to have people who speak their mind and hold people accountable.”

Inflation and cost-of-living challenges have been at the forefront of constituents’ concerns, he said, as have parental rights.

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“Parents want to have control over their children’s lives in health, education, health care and religion, and keep the government out of that,” said Lorencz, who’s said he’ll hold accountable the CPC just as he would the Liberals.

Party leader Maxime Bernier was scheduled to attend a noontime PPC barbecue in the riding on Saturday to rally his troops ahead of Monday’s byelection.

Also contesting the byelection is the Green Party of Canada’s Ravenmoon Crocker, Larry Heather of the Christian Heritage Party, the Maverick Party’s Dan Irving and unaffiliated candidate Donovan Eckstrom.

BKaufmann@postmedia.com

Twitter: @BillKaufmannjrn

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N.S. government sets up code of conduct for province’s municipal politicians

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HALIFAX – The Nova Scotia government has released a code of conduct for municipal politicians across the province.

The code includes 40 guidelines under 14 categories, covering topics from gifts and benefits, to how officials should handle confidential information.

Municipal Affairs Minister John Lohr says a code ensuring elected municipal officials have clear guidance on conduct and behaviour is long overdue.

The code was originally requested by the provinces’ municipalities and villages, and it was developed based on recommendations of a working group established in January 2022.

The working group recommended a code that applied across the province, with processes for investigating complaints and imposing sanctions.

The provincial government says councils and village commissions must adopt the code of conduct by Dec. 19.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Parliament returns amid partisan wrangling, rumblings about Trudeau’s leadership

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OTTAWA – The House of Commons returns today from a week-long break, but it’s unlikely to be business as usual.

Members of Parliament are slated to resume debating a Conservative demand for documents about federal spending on green technology projects.

The matter of privilege has all but paralyzed House business as the Liberals try to maintain a grip on an increasingly fractious minority Parliament.

On Wednesday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is expected to face the most serious challenge to his leadership to date.

Several media reports have detailed the plans of a group of Liberal MPs to confront Trudeau at the party’s Wednesday caucus meeting over sagging poll numbers and gloomy electoral prospects.

The precise strategy and breadth of the attempt to push Trudeau to resign remain unclear, though some MPs who spoke to The Canadian Press on background said the number of members involved is significant.

Trudeau could sidestep both problems by taking the controversial step of proroguing Parliament, which would end the session and set the stage for a fresh throne speech.

Some political watchers have mused the move would allow time for a Liberal leadership race if Trudeau were to step down.

The prime minister also plans to soon shuffle his cabinet to replace four ministers who don’t plan to run again in the next election.

A general election is scheduled to be held in October next year, but could come sooner if the Liberals lose the confidence of the House.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

— With files from Laura Osman

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Harris tells Black churchgoers that people must show compassion and respect in their lives

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STONECREST, Ga. (AP) — Kamala Harris told the congregation of a large Black church in suburban Atlanta on Sunday that people must show compassion and respect in their daily lives and do more than just “preach the values.”

The Democratic presidential nominee’s visit to New Birth Missionary Baptist Church in Stonecrest on her 60th birthday, marked by a song by the congregation, was part of a broad, nationwide campaign, known as “Souls to the Polls,” that encourages Black churchgoers to vote.

Pastor Jamal Bryant said the vice president was “an American hero, the voice of the future” and “our fearless leader.” He also used his sermon to welcome the idea of America electing a woman for the first time as president. “It takes a real man to support a real woman,” Bryant said.

“When Black women roll up their sleeves, then society has got to change,” the pastor said.

Harris told the parable of the Good Samaritan from the Gospel of Luke, about a man who was traveling from Jerusalem to Jericho and was attacked by robbers. The traveler was beaten and left bloodied, but helped by a stranger.

All faiths promote the idea of loving thy neighbor, Harris said, but far harder to achieve is truly loving a stranger as if that person were a neighbor.

“In this moment, across our nation, what we do see are some who try to deepen division among us, spread hate, sow fear and cause chaos,” Harris told the congregation. “The true measure of the strength of a leader is based on who you lift up.”

She was more somber than during her political rallies, stressing that real faith means defending humanity. She said the Samaritan parable reminds people that “it is not enough to preach the values of compassion and respect. We must live them.”

Harris ended by saying, “Weeping may endure for a night, but joy cometh in the morning,” as attendees applauded her.

Many in attendance wore pink to promote breast cancer awareness. Also on hand was Opal Lee, an activist in the movement to make Juneteenth a federally recognized holiday. Harris hugged her.

The vice president also has a midday stop at Divine Faith Ministries International in Jonesboro with singer Stevie Wonder, before taping an interview with the Rev. Al Sharpton that will air later Sunday on MSNBC. The schedule reflects her campaign’s push to treat every voting group like a swing state voter, trying to appeal to them all in a tightly contested election with early voting in progress.

Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, headed to church in Saginaw, Michigan, and his wife, Gwen, was going to a service in Las Vegas.

The “Souls to the Polls” effort launched last week and is led by the National Advisory Board of Black Faith Leaders, which is sending representatives across battleground states as early voting begins in the Nov. 5 election.

“My father used to say, a ‘voteless people is a powerless people’ and one of the most important steps we can take is that short step to the ballot box,” Martin Luther King III said Friday. “When Black voters are organized and engaged, we have the power to shift the trajectory of this nation.”

On Saturday, the vice president rallied supporters in Detroit with singer Lizzo before traveling to Atlanta to focus on abortion rights, highlighting the death of a Georgia mother amid the state’s restrictive abortion laws that took effect after the U.S. Supreme Court, with three justices nominated by Donald Trump, overturned Roe v. Wade.

And after her Sunday push, she will campaign with former U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., in the suburbs of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

“Donald Trump still refuses to take accountability, to take any accountability, for the pain and the suffering he has caused,” Harris said.

Harris is a Baptist whose husband, Doug Emhoff, is Jewish. She has said she’s inspired by the work of the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr., and influenced by the religious traditions of her mother’s native India as well as the Black Church. Harris sang in the choir as a child at Twenty Third Avenue Church of God in Oakland.

“Souls to the Polls” as an idea traces back to the Civil Rights Movement. The Rev. George Lee, a Black entrepreneur from Mississippi, was killed by white supremacists in 1955 after he helped nearly 100 Black residents register to vote in the town of Belzoni. The cemetery where Lee is buried has served as a polling place.

Black church congregations across the country have undertaken get-out-the-vote campaigns for years. In part to counteract voter suppression tactics that date back to the Jim Crow era, early voting in the Black community is stressed from pulpits nearly as much as it is by candidates.

In Georgia, early voting began on Tuesday, and more than 310,000 people voted on that day, more than doubling the first-day total in 2020. A record 5 million people voted in the 2020 presidential election in Georgia.

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This story has been corrected to reflect that the mobilization effort launched last week, not Oct. 20.

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