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Calgary Heritage byelection test of right-wing parties' strength: political scientist – Calgary Herald

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‘We’ve got a lot of different conservative candidates and if (changes in momentum) happen, it might be on the conservative side’

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A looming federal byelection in a Conservative stronghold in south Calgary could be most relevant as a brawl between parties on the political right, says a political scientist.

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Voters in Calgary Heritage head to the polls Monday to replace a Conservative Party of Canada MP who stepped down last January in the riding once held by former prime minister Stephen Harper.

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Bob Benzen announced last October that he wouldn’t run again, citing a wish not to become “a career politician,” prompting Prime Minister Justin Trudeau last month to call a byelection for the riding.

The Conservatives won the riding handily in the Sept. 20, 2021, federal election, capturing 57.7 per cent of the vote, with the NDP finishing a distant second with 17.4 per cent.

The Liberals garnered 16.7 per cent of the vote.

The People’s Party of Canada, which some thought could siphon strength from the Conservatives, proved a limited factor in that election with five per cent of ballots cast.

But with at least four of the eight candidates contesting the byelection falling on the right of the political spectrum, the byelection is likely to prove more of a referendum on the strength of the various conservative parties heading toward the 2025 general election, said Mount Royal University political scientist Lori Williams.

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“We’ve got a lot of different conservative candidates and if (changes in momentum) happen, it might be on the conservative side,” said Williams.

“Are they growing or staying the same? Those parties will be looking at the margins . . . it could have some indications for the upcoming (2025) federal election.”

After a recent succession of leadership races and a provincial election, as well as the fact the byelection is happening in the middle of summer, many voters will likely tune out — but the federal Conservatives under Leader Pierre Poilievre should still win easily, she said.

  1. The Conservative Party's Bob Benzen speaks to supporters after winning the federal riding of Calgary Heritage on Monday April 3, 2017.

    Date set for Calgary Heritage federal byelection

  2. Four new MPs are set to be elected to the House of Commons Monday, during a stream of byelections that political watchers say could lead to a new Liberal cabinet minister, and test the Conservative party as it deals with internal fighting over one of its seats. An arrow points to where people can go to cast their ballots in Montreal, Monday, September 20, 2021.

    Conservatives cruise to victory over Bernier’s PPC, Liberals retain seats in federal byelections

  3. Conservative Party Bob Benzen speaks to supporters after winning the federal riding of Calgary Heritage on Monday April 3, 2017.

    Calgary Heritage byelection coming following MP’s retirement

While the CPC’s total stranglehold on Alberta weakened by 14 per cent in 2021, with the Liberals claiming two seats in the province and the NDP one, ripping Calgary Heritage from their grasp is considered a long shot.

Four federal byelections last month failed to appreciably alter the political equation, with the Conservatives and Liberals each retaining two seats.

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In three of those races, the Liberals polled better than their previous results but the party shouldn’t expect to replicate that in Calgary Heritage, said Williams.

Conservative candidate has ties to Stephen Harper

Carrying the Conservative Party banner in Harper’s former riding is a man who works closely with the former PM — Calgary native Shuvaloy Majumdar.

A longtime party staffer and foreign policy adviser, Majumdar is a director of Harper’s consulting firm and counts himself a friend of Poilievre.

His campaign didn’t respond to a request for an interview.

But his LinkedIn page says he’s “a nationally recognized and respected thought leader in Canadian foreign policy and national security — advocating for Canadian energy, confronting foreign authoritarians interfering in the lives of Canadians, and promoting a principled vision for Calgary and our country in a disrupted world.”

NDP candidate looks to build party’s presence in Calgary

NDP candidate Gurmit Bhachu called Majumdar “a Harper clone” but doesn’t think his ties to the ex-PM will have an effect on the race.

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Bhachu said he doesn’t expect to prevail but notes the NDP has nearly doubled its share of the vote in the riding over the past two elections.

“My role is to keep chipping away — there are Conservatives moving to the NDP, which is awesome,” said Bhachu, a Grade 4 teacher with the Calgary Board of Education.

He said concerns over affordability and health care play well in the NDP’s favour, given the party’s efforts in pushing the Trudeau government toward wider pharmaceutical and dental coverage.

“Those things would save Canadians a lot of money,” said Bhachu, who ran for the NDP in 2019 and 2021 in nearby Calgary Midnapore.

Liberal candidate ‘putting out a really positive message’

A Conservative victory isn’t a foregone conclusion, said Liberal hopeful Elliot Weinstein.

“We’ve been working really hard, we’ve been putting out a really positive message that’s resonating at the doors,” he said.

He wouldn’t deny the unpopularity in Calgary of Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, but emphasized he’s running on his own name and background.

“It’s my name on the ballot — I put myself forward as a small-business owner and family person,” said Weinstein.

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His campaign, he said, is trying to appeal to other progressive voters who might normally lean toward the NDP with a pitch that, if elected, he’ll “be stepping right into government,” adding he’s serious about addressing environmental issues.

And Weinstein said he’s heard some rumblings of dissatisfaction with Poilievre among some Conservatives in Calgary Heritage.

People’s Party of Canada candidate looks to ‘hold people accountable’

People’s Party of Canada candidate Kelly Lorencz said he agrees with Williams’ prediction the byelection could have relevance as a showdown among conservatives.

“But we need to find ways to work together and address the concerns Canadians have,” said Lorencz, a military veteran and ex-corrections officer who’s the party’s “western lieutenant.”

He said his campaign in the riding “has been really, really well-received, which has surprised me . . . we need another set of eyes in Ottawa, we’ve got to have people who speak their mind and hold people accountable.”

Inflation and cost-of-living challenges have been at the forefront of constituents’ concerns, he said, as have parental rights.

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“Parents want to have control over their children’s lives in health, education, health care and religion, and keep the government out of that,” said Lorencz, who’s said he’ll hold accountable the CPC just as he would the Liberals.

Party leader Maxime Bernier was scheduled to attend a noontime PPC barbecue in the riding on Saturday to rally his troops ahead of Monday’s byelection.

Also contesting the byelection is the Green Party of Canada’s Ravenmoon Crocker, Larry Heather of the Christian Heritage Party, the Maverick Party’s Dan Irving and unaffiliated candidate Donovan Eckstrom.

BKaufmann@postmedia.com

Twitter: @BillKaufmannjrn

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‘Disgraceful:’ N.S. Tory leader slams school’s request that military remove uniform

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.

Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.

A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”

Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.

“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.

In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”

“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”

Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.

Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.

Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.

“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.

“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.

“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”

Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.

“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”

NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”

“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Saskatchewan NDP’s Beck holds first caucus meeting after election, outlines plans

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REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.

Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.

She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.

Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.

Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.

The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Nova Scotia election: Liberals say province’s immigration levels are too high

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.

Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.

“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.

“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”

The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.

In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.

“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”

In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.

“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”

Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.

Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.

“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”

In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.

In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.

“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”

Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.

“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”

The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.

“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.

Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.

“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

— With files from Keith Doucette in Halifax

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