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Can Canada avoid the economic damage that comes with a U.S.-style political split? – CBC.ca

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It Can’t Happen Here, a 1935 novel by U.S. social critic Sinclair Lewis, portrays a United States sliding into a Nazi-style autocracy.

Some modern critics have suggested Lewis’s book predicted what they currently see as a breakdown in democracy in our southern neighbour.

While most of us stand by with fingers crossed hoping the novel was a warning to be heeded rather than a prescription, the same book title might be applied to Canadians observing the current election uncertainty in the United States. Could it happen here?

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Economic observers fear that even well short of the dystopia Lewis sketched, once a president — whether Joe Biden or Donald Trump — has finally been selected, the country will be so sharply divided between two opposing ideologies that it will not be run well.

Economics ‘seems to be getting political’

Christopher Cochrane, a political scientist at the University of Toronto and author of the book Left and Right: The Small World of Political Ideas, worries that by following their impulse to play to the outrage of their backers, politicians may be setting aside a long-accepted rule of good government.

“There would be a debate about economics, but it would always be about what is the best way for growing the economy,” he said in a phone interview.

But now, Cochrane said, that single-minded focus — where the economy was put on a pedestal — has been fractured into a series of other political debates that are not in the country’s economic best interests.

“Economics is no longer where it used to be as an overarching consensus,” he said. “Now it seems to be getting political in a way that it hasn’t been in recent memory.”

Hundreds of people line up outside a Kentucky Career Center hoping to find assistance with their unemployment claims in June. The COVID-19 pandemic has led to job losses and a recession that economists fear will be hard to fix while parties engage in a ‘messy blame game.’ (Bryan Woolston/Reuters)

That was a concern expressed Tuesday by economist and business analyst Mohamed El-Erian, currently president of Queens’ College, Cambridge and adviser to the German financial giant Allianz.

With the U.S. facing a series of problems that need immediate attention — including a growing income gap and an economy weakening in the face of a pandemic — the country requires a focused economic policy that everyone will back. El-Erian said that is not happening.

In an article titled “A Divided Electorate Spells Trouble for the U.S. Economy,” he worries that not only will groups fight over their share of the pie, but without a clear consensus on economic direction, the entire pie will shrink.

“It will also fall short of what the two sides of the political divide believe is possible under their different approaches, fuelling a messy blame game that will further undermine the social fabric,” El-Erian wrote in the Financial Times, as Democrats and Republicans squabbled over who had actually won key states.

Can it happen here?

But for Canadians watching the political, economic and legal mess emerging in the U.S., the question remains: Can it happen here?

Jeffrey Roy, a professor in the faculty of management at Dalhousie University in Halifax, is worried that it could. Roy, who studies and advises governments on political polarization, including in the context of social media, says what the University of Toronto’s Mark Kingwell discussed in an article called “The Shout Doctrine” — where people go online to shout at their opponents — transcends the border.

“The nature of technology is certainly polarizing rhetoric and polarizing political debate,” Roy said. “It’s enabling people to go to forums in the media outlets that basically match their own values.”

Some say that so far, forums such as Twitter are not so nasty here as in the U.S., and Roy suggests that Canadian politics — while not proof against polarization — tends not to be so bitterly divided.

Roy said that when Canadian politicians such as Kevin O’Leary tried to adopt parts of the Trump-style populist message, it did not take as well here. He credits the reduced power of religion in Canadian politics, a smaller influence from wealthy donors and a greater respect for democratic values and institutions.

Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe makes his victory speech at a campaign event in Saskatoon on Oct. 26 after the Saskatchewan Party won its fourth consecutive majority government. Canadians seem to have greater respect for democracy. The U.S. used to have that, too. (Liam Richards/The Canadian Press)

Ominously, however, Roy points out that respect also existed not long ago in the U.S. as well.

In his research on the historical concept of political “left” and “right,” the U of T’s Cochrane has found that the absolute location of the two poles is constantly shifting and may actually be a way of intentionally creating a division. And while the concept of “we” and “they” exists in many political systems, as observed in Britain’s Brexit debate, U.S. politics seems structured to foster it.

“The American system institutionally seems almost built for the purpose of generating polarization,” Cochrane said. “You’ve got partisan control over electoral boundaries. You’ve got partisan-affiliated Supreme Court judges. You’ve got a two-party system institutionalized right down to the level of voter registration.”

In Canada, by contrast, elections are controlled by a chief electoral officer and an electoral commission that by tradition pride themselves on being non-partisan. There may be other structures built into Canada’s multi-party parliamentary system that also help, such as the governor general, who has no party affiliation, and the auditor general and Parliamentary Budget Office, which are responsible not to a party but to all of Parliament.   

But how can Canada avoid the kind of U.S.-style political stalemate that could lead us into an economic gridlock that stops trying for consensus? At an individual level, Cochrane insists we must all be constantly on guard to avoid the kind of unbending political attitudes we have seen in the recent U.S. context.

“Things are complicated,” he said, something we must constantly remind ourselves of. “Reasonable people will see things differently.”

Voters arrive to cast their ballots at a polling station on federal election day in Shawinigan, Que., on Oct. 21, 2019. Unlike in the U.S., elections in Canada are controlled by a chief electoral officer and an electoral commission that by tradition pride themselves on being non-partisan. (Graham Hughes/The Canadian Press)

But as we’ve seen in the United States, leadership also matters.

“I think it’s extremely important that political leaders put the well-being of democracy, of the institutions, of fairness and so on ahead of their own electoral calculations,” Cochrane said.

“And I think in Canada, we have been extremely fortunate that we have had leaders that do that to a significant degree.”

Maybe, so far, we’ve just been lucky. But at least now we will have an idea of the consequences as we watch them unfold across the border.

Follow Don Pittis on Twitter: @don_pittis

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Michael Taube: How a eulogy for a father made one political career — and perhaps another – National Post

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The similarities between Caroline Mulroney’s eulogy for her father and Justin Trudeau’s homage to his ‘Papa’ were impossible to ignore

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There were many heartfelt tributes to former prime minister Brian Mulroney during his state funeral at Montreal’s Notre-Dame Basilica on March 23. One that caught significant attention was the eulogy by his daughter, Caroline, a cabinet minister in Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s government.

The legion of family, friends and political cohorts that day had a good laugh over a particular remark that Mulroney made. “Speeches were such a major part of his life,” she said, “that he told us that when it was his turn to go up to what he called that great political rally in the sky, he wanted us to bury him with his podium.”

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Indeed, it’s a great line — and it rings true in every fibre of its being!

That’s not what struck me about Mulroney’s speech, however. Rather, it was the passionate words, raw emotion and cadence she employed when describing her late father. She had lived in his massive (and unavoidable) shadow. His formidable presence followed her in every step she took — but in a good way. What he specifically meant to her, the family and our country was mapped out on one of the biggest stages she’ll ever encounter in her life.

So much so, that one person sitting in the Basilica — who also gave a eulogy — may have felt, if but for a fleeting moment, that he was experiencing déjà vu: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. (We’ll get to him shortly.)

“There was a destiny attached to my father, that even in his youth, no one could deny,” Mulroney said in one poignant moment. “Even prime minister (John) Diefenbaker at the peak of his powers, wrote a letter to my grandfather, extolling his son’s potential after his first encounter with my dad.”

She continued, “My dad saw the world in a bigger way than most. His humanity defined him. Which is why he transcended politics and connected with people in a way that left an indelible mark on their hearts and souls. In our grief, our family is comforted and so grateful for the universal outpouring of affection and admiration for what my father meant to them and to Canada.”

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Her concluding lines tugged at the heartstrings of one’s soul. “We are heartbroken by our loss. We adored him. I miss you daddy.”

It was a wonderful eulogy that her father — who I knew, admired and respected — would have been proud of. Words mattered to him. He loved language and prose, and mastered them to perfection. The art of writing, speaking and storytelling were gifts from God.

When I watched Mulroney speak at the state funeral of her beloved father, I was instantly reminded of Trudeau’s eulogy at the state funeral of his beloved father.

The man who would become Canada’s 23rd prime minister was a relatively unknown figure when he walked to the lectern on Oct. 4, 2000. There had been various images of him in the media, but he had largely avoided the spotlight. His father’s massive shadow and formidable presence, much like Caroline Mulroney’s father, was always there — but in a good way.

When Trudeau spoke that day, it was the biggest audience of his young life. He did extremely well. His speech was emotional, powerful and deeply personal.

“Pierre Elliott Trudeau. The very words convey so many things to so many people,” he said. “Statesman, intellectual, professor, adversary, outdoorsman, lawyer, journalist, author, prime minister. But more than anything, to me, he was dad. And what a dad. He loved us with the passion and the devotion that encompassed his life. He taught us to believe in ourselves, to stand up for ourselves, to know ourselves and to accept responsibility for ourselves. We knew we were the luckiest kids in the world. And we had done nothing to actually deserve it.”

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  1. Prime Minister Brian Mulroney with his wife Mila and Mikhail Gorbachev, at 24 Sussex Drive on May 29, 1990.

    Michael Taube: From trade to personal liberties, Brian Mulroney stood for freedom

  2. Caroline Mulroney speaks during the state funeral of her father, late former Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney at Notre-Dame Basilica in Montreal on March 23, 2024.

    ‘There was a destiny attached to my father’: Read Caroline Mulroney’s eulogy for Brian Mulroney

There’s also this passage which perfectly encapsulates Trudeau’s love for his father and what he believed he did for the nation. “My father’s fundamental belief never came from a textbook. It stemmed from his deep love for and faith in all Canadians and over the past few days, with every card, every rose, every tear, every wave and every pirouette, you returned his love … He left politics in ’84, but he came back for Meech, he came back for Charlottetown, he came back to remind us of who we are and what we’re all capable of.”

And finally, this concluding sentiment. “But he won’t be coming back any more. It’s all up to us — all of us — now. The woods are lovely, dark and deep. He has kept his promises and earned his sleep. Je t’aime, Papa.”

Mulroney and Trudeau, much like their fathers, are different people with different strengths, weaknesses and political ideologies. The similarities are equally impossible to ignore. Scions of two impressive public figures. Children who walk in the giant footsteps their fathers left behind. Two impressive eulogies at different points in their lives and careers that will be remembered forever.

There’s one other similarity that could be on the horizon. Trudeau used his eulogy to springboard into the public eye, politics and leadership. Mulroney is already in the public eye and politics. She unsuccessfully ran for the Ontario PC leadership in 2019, but didn’t have the presence, confidence or speaking ability that she did during her eulogy. That moment has finally arrived, and it’s up to her to use it as wisely as Trudeau did.

National Post

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Holder bows out of politics ahead of election – Telegraph-Journal

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Former cabinet minister is the latest Tory rebel to exit politics

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Progressive Conservative stalwart Trevor Holder, the province’s longest-serving MLA in the legislature, is bowing out of politics, becoming the latest Tory rebel to make that call ahead of the provincial election.

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In the legislature Thursday, Holder, who has served the Saint John riding of Portland-Simonds for the last 25 years and was a cabinet minister under three premiers, made the announcement, thanking all his colleagues “regardless of political stripe” who later rose in the House to give him a round of applause.

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“All I ever wanted – along with all of you – was a chance to help make (New Brunswick) better than it already is,” said Holder, who described himself as a “north-end kid” from Saint John.

Holder didn’t make himself available to the media after his announcement. He also didn’t formally resign on Thursday, sending a note out to reporters that he “won’t be back in May” but hasn’t “set the official date yet” for his resignation.

News of his exit comes less than a year after Holder resigned as the province’s minister of post-secondary education, training and labour, citing the impact of Premier Blaine Higgs’s top-down leadership style on caucus decision-making.

Holder was the second minister to resign from cabinet last June amid Tory caucus infighting over changes to the province’s gender identity policy for public school students.

Fellow Saint John MLA and Tory stalwart Dorothy Shephard was the first to resign from cabinet last summer, giving up her post as minister of social development before announcing last week she won’t reoffer in the upcoming election this fall.

Shephard also cited Higgs’s leadership style in her decision to leave cabinet.

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During his speech Thursday, Holder made a point to thank Higgs “for the conversations over the last number of days leading up to my decision here.”

Higgs later told media he didn’t know Holder’s exact plans for the future but knew the Saint John MLA had “opportunities.”

“He’s a great statesman in the legislature and certainly his care for his community is genuine,” the premier said.

When asked if he had addressed Holder’s concerns about caucus decision-making, Higgs said he thought so but acknowledged he’s “always struggled with things not getting done at a certain level of pace.”

“It’s rare if you ever come out of caucus or cabinet with unanimous decisions,” he said.

“There’s always a degree of differences, and that’s not going to change, but leadership requires real decisions and you’re not everything to everybody, so you do what you believe is right and you do with it conviction and you hope it’s just the right thing to do.”

Holder ‘a truly progressive conservative’: Coon

Both opposition leaders spoke glowingly of Holder’s commitment to provincial politics.

“He was a real asset to the legislature, he was a real pleasure to work with, so it’s a loss to see him leaving the legislative assembly,” Liberal leader Susan Holt told media Thursday.

That was echoed by Green leader David Coon.

“(Holder’s) very committed to improving our system of government and he’s made real contributions to doing so,” Coon said. “I’m sad to see him go. He’s truly a progressive conservative in the truest meaning of that term.”

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In his 16-minute speech, Holder spoke of the importance of bipartisanship, describing his relationship with former Liberal cabinet minister Victor Boudreau.

They used to “tear each other” up in the House, Holder recalled, but “when I was in opposition, (Boudreau) helped me with my constituents, and when I was in government, I did my best to do the same for him – and this is how this legislature needs to work.”

First elected at the age of 25 in June 1999, Holder has won a total of six elections over the course of his 25-year provincial political career. He’s a former minister of environment and local government, tourism and parks, wellness, culture and sport, and tourism, heritage and culture. He also served as deputy speaker.

Holder thanked his wife Brenda Thursday, along with their two daughters, Margaret and Katherine, for their support over the course of his political career.

Holder’s and Shephard’s departure announcements are the latest in a string of changes within the Tory caucus ahead of the election.

In February, fellow Saint John colleague Arlene Dunn abruptly resigned from her ministerial and MLA duties. Meanwhile, colleagues Daniel Allain, Jeff Carr and Ross Wetmore – who were part of the Tory rebels who supported a Liberal motion on Policy 713 changes – have announced they won’t reoffer in the next election.

Wetmore had announced his retirement intentions before the Policy 713 kerfuffle.

Fellow rebel Andrea Anderson-Mason, MLA for Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West, has yet to announce her plans.

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Opinion: Canada's foreign policy and its domestic politics on Israel's war against Hamas are shifting – The Globe and Mail

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The vote in the House of Commons last week on Israel’s war against Hamas represents a shift in both Canada’s foreign policy and its domestic politics.

The Liberal government is now markedly more supportive of the rights of Palestinians and less supportive of the state of Israel than in the past. That shift mirrors changing demographics, and the increasing importance of Muslim voters within the Liberal coalition.

Both the Liberal and Conservative parties once voiced unqualified support for Israel’s right to defend itself from hostile neighbours. But the Muslim community is growing in Canada. Today it represents 5 per cent of the population, compared with 1 per cent who identify as Jewish.

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Although data is sparse prior to 2015, it is believed that Muslim Canadians tended to prefer the Liberal Party over the Conservative Party. They were also less likely to vote than the general population.

But the Conservative Party under Stephen Harper deeply angered the community with talk about “barbaric cultural practices” and musing during the 2015 election campaign about banning public servants from wearing the niqab. Meanwhile, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau was promising to bring in 25,000 Syrian refugees to Canada if elected.

These factors galvanized community groups to encourage Muslims to vote. And they did. According to an Environics poll, 79 per cent of eligible Muslims cast a ballot in the 2015 election, compared with an overall turnout of 68 per cent. Sixty-five per cent of Muslim voters cast ballots for the Liberal Party, compared with 10 per cent who voted for the NDP and just 2 per cent for the Conservatives. (Telephone interviews of 600 adults across Canada who self-identified as Muslim, were conducted between Nov. 19, 2015 and Jan. 23, 2016, with an expected margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points 19 times out of 20.)

Muslim Canadians also strongly supported the Liberals in the elections of 2019 and 2021. The party is understandably anxious not to lose that support. I’m told that Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly often mentions the large Muslim community in her Montreal riding. (According to the 2021 census, 18 per cent of the people in Ahuntsic-Cartierville identify as Muslim.)

This is one reason why the Liberal leadership laboured so mightily to find a way to support last week’s NDP motion that would, among other measures, have recognized the state of Palestine. The Liberal caucus was deeply divided on the issue. My colleague Marieke Walsh reports that dozens of Liberal MPs were prepared to vote for the NDP motion.

In the end, almost all Liberal MPs ended up voting for a watered-down version of the motion – statehood recognition was taken off the table – while three Liberal MPs voted against it. One of them, Anthony Housefather, is considering whether to remain inside the Liberal caucus.

This is not simply a question of political calculation. Many Canadians are deeply concerned over the sufferings of the people in Gaza as the Israel Defence Forces seek to root out Hamas fighters.

The Conservatives enjoy the moral clarity of their unreserved support for the state of Israel in this conflict. The NDP place greater emphasis on supporting the rights of Palestinians.

The Liberals have tried to keep both Jewish and Muslim constituencies onside. But as last week’s vote suggests, they increasingly accord a high priority to the rights of Palestinians and to the Muslim community in Canada.

As with other religious communities, Muslims are hardly monolithic. Someone who comes to Canada from Senegal may have different values and priorities than a Canadian who comes from Syria or Pakistan or Indonesia.

And the plight of Palestinians in Gaza may not be the only issue influencing Muslims, who struggle with inflation, interest rates and housing affordability as much as other voters.

Many new Canadians come from societies that are socially conservative. Some Muslim voters may be uncomfortable with the Liberal Party’s strong support for the rights of LGBTQ Canadians.

Finally, Muslim voters for whom supporting the rights of Palestinians is the ballot question may be drawn more to the NDP than the Liberals.

Regardless, the days of Liberal/Conservative bipartisan consensus in support of Israel are over. This is the new lay of the land.

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