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Canada dodges the worst as IMF slashes global growth outlook – BNN

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) slashed its growth forecast for the global economy Tuesday, but Canada managed to escape with only a modest downward revision to its GDP outlook.

In its World Economic Outlook, the IMF said it now sees the global economy growing 3.6 per cent in 2022 and 2023, marking 0.8 per cent and 0.2 per cent decreases from its January projections. The forecast cut is largely the result of the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In January, the IMF said the global economy was on the mend from the pandemic. But since then, “the outlook has deteriorated,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, economic counsellor and director of research at the IMF, said in the report.

“The economic effects of the war are spreading far and wide — like seismic waves that emanate from the epicenter of an earthquake — mainly through commodity markets, trade and financial linkages,” he said.

Other factors at play in the revised outlooks are renewed COVID-related lockdowns in China and a more aggressive tightening of monetary policy by central banks around the world.

“Overall risks to economic prospects have risen sharply and policy trade-offs have become ever more challenging,” Gourinchas wrote.

Canada escaped relatively unscathed. The IMF lowered its growth forecast for this country by two-tenths of a percentage point to 3.9 per cent — that’s the smallest downward revision of all advanced economies. The organization maintained its projection for 2.8 per cent growth in Canada next year.

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The IMF pointed out Canada’s economic links with Russia are “limited,” and that Canada’s revised outlook mostly reflects rising interest rates and expected weaker demand from the United States, which it said outweigh improved terms of trade.

The Bank of Canada raised its benchmark lending rate by a half-percentage point last week, bringing it to 1.0 per cent. It was the largest hike in 22 years, and the central bank signalled that more were on the horizon in order to tamp down runaway inflation.

“There is a rising risk that inflation expectations become de-anchored, prompting a more aggressive tightening response from central banks,” Gourinchas said.

Surging consumer prices around the world were already a concern as the pandemic wreaked havoc on supply chains, and the invasion of Ukraine has amplified those price pressures.

The IMF warned certain supply shortages won’t abate any time soon, heightening the risk that inflation expectations become de-anchored and central banks tighten more aggressively.

“Although bottlenecks are expected to eventually ease as production elsewhere responds to higher prices and new capacity becomes operational, supply shortages in some sectors are expected to last into 2023,” Gourinchas said.

“As a result, inflation is now projected to remain elevated for much longer than in our previous forecast, in both advanced and emerging market and developing economies.”

The IMF said effective national policies will be key in determining economic outcomes and that governments shouldn’t shy away from providing support to households that are struggling to cope with high food and fuel costs.

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Netflix’s subscriber growth slows as gains from password-sharing crackdown subside

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Netflix on Thursday reported that its subscriber growth slowed dramatically during the summer, a sign the huge gains from the video-streaming service’s crackdown on freeloading viewers is tapering off.

The 5.1 million subscribers that Netflix added during the July-September period represented a 42% decline from the total gained during the same time last year. Even so, the company’s revenue and profit rose at a faster pace than analysts had projected, according to FactSet Research.

Netflix ended September with 282.7 million worldwide subscribers — far more than any other streaming service.

The Los Gatos, California, company earned $2.36 billion, or $5.40 per share, a 41% increase from the same time last year. Revenue climbed 15% from a year ago to $9.82 billion. Netflix management predicted the company’s revenue will rise at the same 15% year-over-year pace during the October-December period, slightly than better than analysts have been expecting.

The strong financial performance in the past quarter coupled with the upbeat forecast eclipsed any worries about slowing subscriber growth. Netflix’s stock price surged nearly 4% in extended trading after the numbers came out, building upon a more than 40% increase in the company’s shares so far this year.

The past quarter’s subscriber gains were the lowest posted in any three-month period since the beginning of last year. That drop-off indicates Netflix is shifting to a new phase after reaping the benefits from a ban on the once-rampant practice of sharing account passwords that enabled an estimated 100 million people watch its popular service without paying for it.

The crackdown, triggered by a rare loss of subscribers coming out of the pandemic in 2022, helped Netflix add 57 million subscribers from June 2022 through this June — an average of more than 7 million per quarter, while many of its industry rivals have been struggling as households curbed their discretionary spending.

Netflix’s gains also were propelled by a low-priced version of its service that included commercials for the first time in its history. The company still is only getting a small fraction of its revenue from the 2-year-old advertising push, but Netflix is intensifying its focus on that segment of its business to help boost its profits.

In a letter to shareholder, Netflix reiterated previous cautionary notes about its expansion into advertising, though the low-priced option including commercials has become its fastest growing segment.

“We have much more work to do improving our offering for advertisers, which will be a priority over the next few years,” Netflix management wrote in the letter.

As part of its evolution, Netflix has been increasingly supplementing its lineup of scripted TV series and movies with live programming, such as a Labor Day spectacle featuring renowned glutton Joey Chestnut setting a world record for gorging on hot dogs in a showdown with his longtime nemesis Takeru Kobayashi.

Netflix will be trying to attract more viewer during the current quarter with a Nov. 15 fight pitting former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson against Jake Paul, a YouTube sensation turned boxer, and two National Football League games on Christmas Day.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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