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Canada finally has a plan to meet its climate target — and maybe now there can be a real debate – CBC.ca

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Environment Minister Jonathan Wilkinson is not an objective analyst of federal climate policy. But his analysis of the Liberal government’s announcement on Friday was not entirely fanciful.

“This is a day on which I think Canadians should be proud,” he said in an interview with CBC News on Friday morning, shortly before he stood with the prime minister in front of some trees at Ottawa’s Dominion Arboretum and announced a sweeping update to the Liberal government’s climate plan.

“Because this is the first time Canada’s ever had a plan that is being proposed that shows how we will not only meet, but we will exceed the targets to which we have committed internationally.”

Whatever pride Canadians might feel, Wilkinson no doubt hopes that a lot of it is directed at himself and the government he serves. As for the mere act of coming up with a plan to accomplish something this country has promised to do — surely that’s the very least a government is expected to do.

But the minister is also correct to point out that this is the first time any federal government has actually done so. More than 30 years after Canadian governments started making international commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, there is now an official path for Canada to meet one of those targets.

Better late than never?

“I think the big takeaway here is that, for the first time, Canada has a plan and with policy action that is consistent with ambition,” said Dale Beugin, vice president of research and analysis at the Canadian Institute for Climate Choices.

In that respect, the Liberal plan can be viewed simply as an explanation of what it will take to get it done — a reckoning with what many Canadian political leaders and voters have said they want.

In doing so, it could finally set up a clear debate about whether Canadians actually want to do their part to combat global climate change, whether any party can offer a more appealing plan for doing so — and perhaps what it would take to do even more.

Environment Minister Jonathan Wilkinson, left, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press)

Much attention will be paid to one particular piece of the plan — the increase in the federal carbon price — and that piece is significant. But the 78-page document presents 64 “new measures” and $15 billion in federal investment, including an overarching commitment to “integrate climate considerations throughout government decision-making.” Its breadth is worth noting for what that says about how all-encompassing the effort of moving to a low-carbon economy could be.

Not all of what the Liberals would like to do is firmly established. There are several commitments to “work with” provinces and sectors of the economy to develop policies in a number of areas — from building supplies and fertilizer to farming and interprovincial power grids.

But the Liberals estimate that the concrete elements of their plan — when added to the federal and provincial policies that already have been implemented over the last decade — would reduce Canada’s total annual emissions to 503 megatonnes by 2030, pushing this country past its commitment to reduce emissions by 30 per cent below the level of 2005.

How the political climate has shifted

Further possible reductions and an ambitious target for 2030 would be committed to after discussions with the provinces. All of that would, ideally, put Canada on a path to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050.

The key to reducing emissions will be the federal carbon price. Already the most politically controversial element of the existing Liberal plan, it is now set to increase by $15 per tonne each year between 2022 and 2030. That was the headline item from Friday’s package — and perhaps the fact that any party, let alone the one in government, would be willing to propose such an increase shows how much the conversation on climate policy in Canada has shifted.

As recently as 18 months ago, it wasn’t clear that the Canadian public would accept any explicit price on carbon. The Conservative Party clobbered the Liberals in 2008 with warnings about Stephane Dion’s “job-killing carbon tax” and they were trying to do the same to Justin Trudeau in the 2019 election.

Then-Conservative leader Andrew Scheer delivers a speech on the environment in Chelsea, Que. Wednesday June 19, 2019. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press)

But in last year’s campaign, it was the Conservative climate platform — which lacked a price on carbon and would have resulted in higher emissions — that emerged as the more significant political weakness. When all the ballots were counted, 63.3 per cent of Canadians had voted for a party — the Liberals, Bloc Quebecois, NDP or Greens — that supported putting a price on carbon.

Wilkinson is familiar with that math and cited it on Friday morning while explaining why he thinks the public will approve of his government’s approach. “My view is Canadians actually understand that this is an important and thoughtful component of climate policy,” he said.

Wilkinson also came prepared with other arguments: that almost every economist will tell you pricing carbon is the most efficient way or reducing emissions, that a price on carbon offers an incentive for innovation and — crucially — that it also can be implemented in a way that is “affordable” for Canadians.

Waiting on the Supreme Court

Revenue from the fuel surcharge will continue to be returned to Canadians in rebates, now on a quarterly basis. As the parliamentary budget officer confirmed in 2019, the vast majority of Canadian households receive more from the rebate than they pay out in extra costs.

Even while nearly two-thirds of Canadian voters were siding with a price on carbon, the provincial governments in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Ontario continued their legal challenge of the federal carbon price. If the Supreme Court rules against the federal government, the Liberals will have to adjust their approach.

But even if the federal proposal prevails, there is no guarantee that the conservative premiers in those provinces will give up the political fight — particularly now that the price is set to continue increasing.

Conservative leader Erin O’Toole. The Conservatives’ criticisms of the new climate plan on Friday focused less on the policy and more on how it was drafted. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press)

Erin O’Toole’s federal Conservatives quickly registered their displeasure — though their criticism curiously focused not on the substance of the policy but on a lack of consultation and the supposed sanctity of provincial jurisdiction. The usual opponents of climate action will also bark.

However much the global economy, governments in other countries and the public mood in Canada may have changed course, there is a reason why even proponents of ambitious climate policy were describing the Liberal move on Friday as “brave.”

The Liberals have other things to talk about on climate policy — easier things like investment and direct job creation. But they seem content to fight on the ground of pricing carbon. Perhaps putting a price on carbon has become a mark of credibility.

Either way, the Conservatives now have an opportunity to explain what they’d do differently — and whether they could meet Canada’s international commitments without adopting some of the policies they have criticized. For the New Democrats and Greens, there is a chance to show exactly what going even further would involve.

For years, the debate around climate policy in Canada has relied on magical thinking — the belief that targets could be set but only half-heartedly pursued, that targets could be met with relatively little effort, that whatever needed to be done could be done later, or by someone else. But the planet is quickly running out of time for magic.

In recent polling commissioned by Clean Energy Canada, 66 per cent of respondents said they wanted Canada to be among the most ambitious countries in the world when it comes to climate policy. Achieving that status surely begins with reaching Canada’s 2030 target.

If Canadians do want to pride themselves on their commitment to combating climate change and creating a cleaner economy, they finally have a better idea of what that might really look like — and a chance for a real debate about how, or whether, this country is going to carry its share of the burden.

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STD epidemic slows as new syphilis and gonorrhea cases fall in US

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NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. syphilis epidemic slowed dramatically last year, gonorrhea cases fell and chlamydia cases remained below prepandemic levels, according to federal data released Tuesday.

The numbers represented some good news about sexually transmitted diseases, which experienced some alarming increases in past years due to declining condom use, inadequate sex education, and reduced testing and treatment when the COVID-19 pandemic hit.

Last year, cases of the most infectious stages of syphilis fell 10% from the year before — the first substantial decline in more than two decades. Gonorrhea cases dropped 7%, marking a second straight year of decline and bringing the number below what it was in 2019.

“I’m encouraged, and it’s been a long time since I felt that way” about the nation’s epidemic of sexually transmitted infections, said the CDC’s Dr. Jonathan Mermin. “Something is working.”

More than 2.4 million cases of syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia were diagnosed and reported last year — 1.6 million cases of chlamydia, 600,000 of gonorrhea, and more than 209,000 of syphilis.

Syphilis is a particular concern. For centuries, it was a common but feared infection that could deform the body and end in death. New cases plummeted in the U.S. starting in the 1940s when infection-fighting antibiotics became widely available, and they trended down for a half century after that. By 2002, however, cases began rising again, with men who have sex with other men being disproportionately affected.

The new report found cases of syphilis in their early, most infectious stages dropped 13% among gay and bisexual men. It was the first such drop since the agency began reporting data for that group in the mid-2000s.

However, there was a 12% increase in the rate of cases of unknown- or later-stage syphilis — a reflection of people infected years ago.

Cases of syphilis in newborns, passed on from infected mothers, also rose. There were nearly 4,000 cases, including 279 stillbirths and infant deaths.

“This means pregnant women are not being tested often enough,” said Dr. Jeffrey Klausner, a professor of medicine at the University of Southern California.

What caused some of the STD trends to improve? Several experts say one contributor is the growing use of an antibiotic as a “morning-after pill.” Studies have shown that taking doxycycline within 72 hours of unprotected sex cuts the risk of developing syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia.

In June, the CDC started recommending doxycycline as a morning-after pill, specifically for gay and bisexual men and transgender women who recently had an STD diagnosis. But health departments and organizations in some cities had been giving the pills to people for a couple years.

Some experts believe that the 2022 mpox outbreak — which mainly hit gay and bisexual men — may have had a lingering effect on sexual behavior in 2023, or at least on people’s willingness to get tested when strange sores appeared.

Another factor may have been an increase in the number of health workers testing people for infections, doing contact tracing and connecting people to treatment. Congress gave $1.2 billion to expand the workforce over five years, including $600 million to states, cities and territories that get STD prevention funding from CDC.

Last year had the “most activity with that funding throughout the U.S.,” said David Harvey, executive director of the National Coalition of STD Directors.

However, Congress ended the funds early as a part of last year’s debt ceiling deal, cutting off $400 million. Some people already have lost their jobs, said a spokeswoman for Harvey’s organization.

Still, Harvey said he had reasons for optimism, including the growing use of doxycycline and a push for at-home STD test kits.

Also, there are reasons to think the next presidential administration could get behind STD prevention. In 2019, then-President Donald Trump announced a campaign to “eliminate” the U.S. HIV epidemic by 2030. (Federal health officials later clarified that the actual goal was a huge reduction in new infections — fewer than 3,000 a year.)

There were nearly 32,000 new HIV infections in 2022, the CDC estimates. But a boost in public health funding for HIV could also also help bring down other sexually transmitted infections, experts said.

“When the government puts in resources, puts in money, we see declines in STDs,” Klausner said.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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World’s largest active volcano Mauna Loa showed telltale warning signs before erupting in 2022

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Scientists can’t know precisely when a volcano is about to erupt, but they can sometimes pick up telltale signs.

That happened two years ago with the world’s largest active volcano. About two months before Mauna Loa spewed rivers of glowing orange molten lava, geologists detected small earthquakes nearby and other signs, and they warned residents on Hawaii‘s Big Island.

Now a study of the volcano’s lava confirms their timeline for when the molten rock below was on the move.

“Volcanoes are tricky because we don’t get to watch directly what’s happening inside – we have to look for other signs,” said Erik Klemetti Gonzalez, a volcano expert at Denison University, who was not involved in the study.

Upswelling ground and increased earthquake activity near the volcano resulted from magma rising from lower levels of Earth’s crust to fill chambers beneath the volcano, said Kendra Lynn, a research geologist at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory and co-author of a new study in Nature Communications.

When pressure was high enough, the magma broke through brittle surface rock and became lava – and the eruption began in late November 2022. Later, researchers collected samples of volcanic rock for analysis.

The chemical makeup of certain crystals within the lava indicated that around 70 days before the eruption, large quantities of molten rock had moved from around 1.9 miles (3 kilometers) to 3 miles (5 kilometers) under the summit to a mile (2 kilometers) or less beneath, the study found. This matched the timeline the geologists had observed with other signs.

The last time Mauna Loa erupted was in 1984. Most of the U.S. volcanoes that scientists consider to be active are found in Hawaii, Alaska and the West Coast.

Worldwide, around 585 volcanoes are considered active.

Scientists can’t predict eruptions, but they can make a “forecast,” said Ben Andrews, who heads the global volcano program at the Smithsonian Institution and who was not involved in the study.

Andrews compared volcano forecasts to weather forecasts – informed “probabilities” that an event will occur. And better data about the past behavior of specific volcanos can help researchers finetune forecasts of future activity, experts say.

(asterisk)We can look for similar patterns in the future and expect that there’s a higher probability of conditions for an eruption happening,” said Klemetti Gonzalez.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Waymo’s robotaxis now open to anyone who wants a driverless ride in Los Angeles

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Waymo on Tuesday opened its robotaxi service to anyone who wants a ride around Los Angeles, marking another milestone in the evolution of self-driving car technology since the company began as a secret project at Google 15 years ago.

The expansion comes eight months after Waymo began offering rides in Los Angeles to a limited group of passengers chosen from a waiting list that had ballooned to more than 300,000 people. Now, anyone with the Waymo One smartphone app will be able to request a ride around an 80-square-mile (129-square-kilometer) territory spanning the second largest U.S. city.

After Waymo received approval from California regulators to charge for rides 15 months ago, the company initially chose to launch its operations in San Francisco before offering a limited service in Los Angeles.

Before deciding to compete against conventional ride-hailing pioneers Uber and Lyft in California, Waymo unleashed its robotaxis in Phoenix in 2020 and has been steadily extending the reach of its service in that Arizona city ever since.

Driverless rides are proving to be more than just a novelty. Waymo says it now transports more than 50,000 weekly passengers in its robotaxis, a volume of business numbers that helped the company recently raise $5.6 billion from its corporate parent Alphabet and a list of other investors that included venture capital firm Andreesen Horowitz and financial management firm T. Rowe Price.

“Our service has matured quickly and our riders are embracing the many benefits of fully autonomous driving,” Waymo co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana said in a blog post.

Despite its inroads, Waymo is still believed to be losing money. Although Alphabet doesn’t disclose Waymo’s financial results, the robotaxi is a major part of an “Other Bets” division that had suffered an operating loss of $3.3 billion through the first nine months of this year, down from a setback of $4.2 billion at the same time last year.

But Waymo has come a long way since Google began working on self-driving cars in 2009 as part of project “Chauffeur.” Since its 2016 spinoff from Google, Waymo has established itself as the clear leader in a robotaxi industry that’s getting more congested.

Electric auto pioneer Tesla is aiming to launch a rival “Cybercab” service by 2026, although its CEO Elon Musk said he hopes the company can get the required regulatory clearances to operate in Texas and California by next year.

Tesla’s projected timeline for competing against Waymo has been met with skepticism because Musk has made unfulfilled promises about the company’s self-driving car technology for nearly a decade.

Meanwhile, Waymo’s robotaxis have driven more than 20 million fully autonomous miles and provided more than 2 million rides to passengers without encountering a serious accident that resulted in its operations being sidelined.

That safety record is a stark contrast to one of its early rivals, Cruise, a robotaxi service owned by General Motors. Cruise’s California license was suspended last year after one of its driverless cars in San Francisco dragged a jaywalking pedestrian who had been struck by a different car driven by a human.

Cruise is now trying to rebound by joining forces with Uber to make some of its services available next year in U.S. cities that still haven’t been announced. But Waymo also has forged a similar alliance with Uber to dispatch its robotaxi in Atlanta and Austin, Texas next year.

Another robotaxi service, Amazon’s Zoox, is hoping to begin offering driverless rides to the general public in Las Vegas at some point next year before also launching in San Francisco.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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