Economy

Canada GDP numbers out today show economy gearing down

Published

2 years ago

October 29, 2022

Canada’s growth rate fell by half in the third quarter from its pace in the first six months of the year, ahead of what’s expected to be an even sharper downturn later this year.

Preliminary industry-based data show gross domestic product expanded 0.1 per cent in September, Statistics Canada reported Friday in Ottawa. That followed an unexpected gain of 0.1 per cent in August, versus a flat reading expected by economists for that month.

Overall, the pace of monthly gains was enough to produce annualized growth in the third quarter of 1.6 per cent, according to a preliminary estimate from the Statistics Canada, versus a 3.3 per cent pace in the second quarter and 3.1 per cent during the three first months of the year.

The quarterly numbers are Statistics Canada’s first preliminary estimate of third quarter GDP, and will almost certainly be revised.

The numbers show inflation and higher interest rates hadn’t completely derailed economic activity over the summer, with retail sales showing a rebound in August, but the economy is clearly gearing down.

Economists are anticipating even slower growth in the fourth quarter, a key reason why the Bank of Canada on Wednesday slowed its pace of interest-rate hikes, warning of a coming slowdown.

On Wednesday, the central bank forecast growth will slow to 0 per cent to 0.5 per cent later this year and in the first half of 2023, with chances of a technical recession. It had predicted third quarter-growth would come in at an annualized 1.5 per cent.

Based on Bloomberg surveys, economists have been forecasting third-quarter growth of 1 per cent annualized.

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Economy

Opinion: Bond markets are signalling trouble for the American economy – The Globe and Mail

Published

18 mins ago

October 19, 2024

Harry Miller

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Opinion: Bond markets are signalling trouble for the American economy The Globe and Mail

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Economy

PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

Published

3 days ago

October 17, 2024

Anne Joseph

OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

Published

3 days ago

October 16, 2024

Anne Joseph

OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

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