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Canada ‘likely’ headed into recession but will fare better than many other economies, says Carney

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Former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor Mark Carney says Canada likely will head into a recession next year but will fare better than many other countries and bounce back faster because of its strong economic fundamentals.

Carney made the comments before the Senate committee on banking, commerce and the economy Thursday. He also explained to parliamentarians why he thought outgoing U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss’s mini-budget caused so much financial turmoil in her country.

“I think a recession is both likely globally and most probable in Canada,” Carney said.

“I would put it this way — I’m afraid it’s a bit like air travel these days. We know where we’re headed, we just don’t know when we are going to get there, so there’s some uncertainty about the exact time.”

Carney told senators that China is “effectively in recession” now. Europe, he said, is entering a recession and the U.K. is already in one — and while the United States’ economic momentum is propping up Canada, it will be in recession “at some point” next year.

“It will be hard for us, [given] those accumulative factors, for Canada to be a full exception from that,” he said. “The combination of all of that is likely to lead to a recession, at least a few quarters of negative growth in Canada.”

That prediction is darker than the one Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist for the International Monetary Fund, gave to CBC’s Rosemary Barton Live in an interview airing Sunday.

“We have a slowdown that we’re projecting in Canada,” Gourinchas told Barton. “We’re seeing growth coming down to about 1.5 per cent next year, so that’s a downward revision.

“The Canadian economy has been doing well in the rebound but it’s buffeted by the same winds that are affecting the global economy.”

Gourinchas said that while unemployment in Canada and the U.S. will rise in the coming years, both labour markets are very strong and unemployment should “hopefully remain fairly modest.”

Canada to recover faster: Carney

Carney cited a strong labour market and low unemployment as reasons why Canada will do better than other countries in weathering the coming recession.

He said Canada’s job market is strong because the country’s pandemic benefits, such as the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy, helped to keep workers attached to their jobs, which meant Canada lost fewer jobs than other countries.

Carney also said that Canada’s international trade agreements with all other G7 countries and Pacific Rim nations will help it recover sooner.

Former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor Mark Carney told a Senate of Canada committee that Canada likely will head into a recession next year but will fare better than many other countries and bounce back faster.

“I would see no reason that there would be any issue for our bond rating or credit rating or any sort of near term type issue,” he said.

And because the U.S. is faring better than other countries right now, Carney said, the strength of its economy should support Canada’s recovery.

“We can come out of this much stronger than others, without question, but we should be clear-eyed about what we are heading into,” he said.

“It’s a storm, not a hurricane. That’s the way I would put it.”

U.K. turmoil and basic math

Carney was also asked by senators to explain the recent financial and political turmoil in the United Kingdom.

Liz Truss announced Thursday that she was stepping down as prime minister, just over six weeks after taking the Conservative Party reins as leader. Her resignation came after Kwasi Kwarteng resigned last week as chancellor of the exchequer, the U.K.’s finance minister.

Watch: Carney weighs in on Liz Truss:

 

Carney weighs in on Liz Truss

18 hours ago

Duration 0:52

Former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor Mark Carney says outgoing British Prime Minister Liz Truss’s failure to provide costing for her mini-budget, and her attempt to go around parliamentary institutions, undercut her credibility.

Both saw their political careers explode after Kwarteng’s so-called mini-budget on Sept. 23 sent U.K. markets into a tailspin by offering deep tax cuts without explaining how they would be funded.

“I think one of the big reasons why it failed is, it was half the story,” Carney said. “They majored on tax cuts as the solution as opposed to all the other hard work that’s necessary to build productivity over time.”

Carney said the Truss government wanted to make a “big bang” with tax cuts and funding to help British households pay for rising energy costs before delivering another budget in late November that would have filled in the holes.

Carney said that Truss was never allowed to deliver that November budget because her government’s decision to announce unfunded tax breaks made it look as if it had a “trickle down, tax-cut-only strategy.”

“Which in and of itself its not a credible strategy for a 21st century economy,” he said.

Carney said that Truss’s failure to provide costing for the cuts, and her attempt to go around parliamentary institutions such as the U.K.’s equivalent of Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Officer, undercut her credibility.

“They moved to a seven per cent of GDP deficit overnight. They already had a seven per cent current account deficit and the numbers didn’t add up. And then they acted like it didn’t matter,” he said.

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As sports betting addiction takes hold in Brazil, the government moves to crack down

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SAO PAULO (AP) — “King” doesn’t disclose his real name. Even clients of his Sao Paulo newsstand have to call him by his moniker. The Brazilian online sports gambling addict lowered his profile after a loan shark threatened to put bullets in his head if he didn’t pay up.

Broke and embarrassed, King sought treatment and support earlier this year.

“I was once addicted to slot machines, but then sports betting was so easy that I changed. I got carried away all the time,” he told The Associated Press.

King’s story is that of many vulnerable Brazilians in recent years. The country has become the third-biggest market in the world for sports betting, following the U.S. and the U.K., a report by data analysis company Comscore said last year. But unlike those countries, rampant advertising and sponsorship have been coupled with an unregulated market. The government is now — belatedly, some say — striving to get a handle on the epidemic.

On a recent evening, King’s Gamblers Anonymous meeting took place in an improvised classroom inside a church, with coffee and cookies to keep everyone awake, and supportive messages scrawled onto the blackboard. One that’s become ubiquitous in Brazil and beyond: “Only for today I will avoid the first bet.”

King and other attendees, all Christian, started a prayer and the meeting began.

King said his financial problems arose from his addiction to online sports betting, chiefly on soccer.

“I miss the adrenaline rush when I don’t bet,” he said before the gathering. “I have managed to stop for a couple of months, but I know that if I do it once again, even a small bet, it will all come back.”

Driven by the pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic was a key driver for Brazilians embracing sports betting. King said he transformed almost every sale during that time into a bet. His hook was the non-stop advertising on TV, radio, social media as well as sponsorship of local soccer teams’ jerseys. He asked for bank loans to pay his gambling debts and then, to cover those, went to the moneylender. His total debt now amounts to 85,000 reais ($15,000) — impossible to pay off with his monthly income of 8,000 reais.

Digging oneself out of debt in Brazil is especially daunting with its sky-high interest rates. Loans from Brazilian banks could add interest of almost 8% per month to the borrowed sum, and from loan sharks could be even more.

Four Gamblers Anonymous meetings attended by the AP in October featured discussions about difficulties paying down debts, forcing working-class members to postpone housing payments and cancel family vacations.

Some members of impoverished Brazilian families have used welfare money for betting instead of paying for groceries and housing, official data suggests. In August, beneficiaries of Brazil’s flagship program Bolsa Familia spent 3 billion reais ($530 million) on sports betting, according to a report from the central bank. That was more than 20% of the program’s total outlay in the month.

A host of gambling related problems

Sports betting was made legal in 2018 in a bill signed by former President Michel Temer. The subsequent turmoil has recently been setting off alarm bells, with addicts venting on social media and media reports of people losing huge sums.

On Oct. 1, the economy ministry prevented more than 2,000 betting companies from operating in Brazil for having failed to provide all the required documents. Soccer-loving President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said in an interview on Oct. 17 that he will shut down the entire market in Brazil if his administration’s new regulations — presented at the end of July— fail to work. And Brazil’s Senate on Oct. 25 opened an investigation into betting companies, focusing on crime and addiction.

“There’s tax evasion, money laundering of organized crime, the use of influencers to trick people into betting. These companies need to be audited,” Sen. Soraya Thronicke, who proposed the inquiry, told journalists in Brasilia.

Sérgio Peixoto, a ride-sharing app driver in Rio, is one of many lower-middle-income Brazilians who have reduced their spending due to sports betting debt. Peixoto’s debt currently amounts to 25,000 reais ($4,400). His monthly income is four times less than that.

“It stopped being a game, it wasn’t fun. I just wanted to get the money back, so I lost even more,” said Peixoto, 26. “I could have invested that money. It would surely have given me more benefits.

Pressure to bet

Pressure on people to gamble is everywhere. Current and former soccer players, including Vinicius Júnior, Ronaldo Nazário and Roberto Rivellino, are among the poster boys for local and foreign brands. All but one of the top-tier soccer clubs have betting companies among their main sponsors, with their name and logo emblazoned on their kits. There have been cases of kids and teenagers setting up accounts using their parents’ personal information and money, multiple local media outlets have reported.

Brazil’s economy ministry estimates that Brazil’s sports betting market had $21 billion in transactions last year, a 71% increase compared with the first year of the pandemic, 2020.

The ministry’s newly presented regulations include facial recognition systems for gamblers to bet, the identification of a single bank account for transactions involving sports betting, new protections against hackers and the government-authorized domain, bet.br, which will host all betting sites that are legal in Brazil. Once they are in place, come January, between 100 and 150 betting companies will continue to operate in the South American nation.

The changes in Brazil have prompted some companies to take preemptive action. A report by Yield Sec, a technical intelligence platform for online marketplaces, said several betting companies voluntarily restricted their operations in different places after the latest editions of the European Championships and Copa America in the hopes of presenting “the best possible license application face to the Brazilian authorities.”

Magnho José Santos de Sousa, the president of the Legal Gambling Institute, a betting think tank, said Brazil is currently “invaded by illegal websites that have licenses in Malta, Curação, Gibraltar and the United Kingdom.”

De Sousa expressed hope that the new regulations for advertising, responsible gambling and qualification of sports betting companies will transform the country’s deregulated arena into a more serious one that doesn’t exploit the vulnerable.

“The whole operation could turn from water into wine,” he said.

Gamblers Anonymous in high demand

Meantime, the demand for Gamblers Anonymous meetings in Sao Paulo has grown so much in recent years that the weekly gathering, in place since the 1990s, was no longer enough. Many groups have added a second day in the week to help new people recover, mostly sports bettors.

Earlier in October, a group on Sao Paulo’s northern edge admitted a man who was struggling with sports betting and card games. The 13 other people in the room stressed that he wasn’t alone.

“Welcome,” one long-time attendee said, in a greeting that has become a regular for the group. “Today, you are the most important person here.”

___

Dumphreys reported from Rio de Janeiro.



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Saskatchewan’s Jason Ackerman improves to 6-0 at mixed curling nationals

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SAINT CATHARINES, Ont. – Saskatchewan’s Jason Ackerman remained undefeated on Wednesday with a 7-4 win over Newfoundland and Labrador’s Trent Skanes at the Canadian mixed curling championship.

After going down 3-1 through four ends, Ackerman (6-0) outscored Skanes (3-3) 6-1 the rest of the way, including three points in the seventh end.

Alberta’s Kurt Alan Balderston also earned a win, defeating New Brunswick’s Charlie Sullivan 9-2 in another matchup in the final draw.

The win improved Balderston’s record to 4-2 and sits in third in Pool B.

The top four teams from each pool will play four more games against the survivors from the other pool. The remaining three teams from the pool will play three more seeding games to help set the rankings for next year’s event.

The championship final is scheduled for Saturday.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Oilers fall 4-2 to Golden Knights in McDavid’s return from injury

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EDMONTON – Noah Hanifin had a pair of goals as the Vegas Golden Knights won their first road game of the season, coming from behind to shock the Edmonton Oilers 4-2 on Wednesday.

Jack Eichel had a goal and two assists and Mark Stone also scored for the Golden Knights (9-3-1), who have won two in a row and six of their last seven. The Knights entered the game 0-3-1 on the road this year.

Brett Kulak and Zach Hyman replied for the Oilers (6-7-1), who have lost two straight despite getting captain Connor McDavid back from injury earlier than expected for the game.

Adin Hill made 27 saves for Vegas, while Stuart Skinner managed 31 stops for Edmonton.

Takeaways

Golden Knights: With an assist on the Knights’ second goal, William Karlsson has recorded at least a point in all five games he has played this season (two goals, four assists).

Oilers: McDavid was a surprise starter for the Oilers, coming back just nine days after suffering an ankle injury in Columbus and initially being expected to miss two to three weeks. The star forward came into the contest with 11 points (three goals, eight assists) during a six-game point streak versus the Golden Knights, but was held pointless on the night.

Key moment

With just 48.4 seconds left to play, the Golden Knights won a race to the corner and Ivan Barbashev was able to send it out to a hard-charging Hanifin, who sent a shot glove-side that beat Skinner for his second goal of the third period and third of the season.

Key stat

It was Hyman’s third goal in the last four games after the veteran forward went scoreless in his first 10 games this season following a 54-goal campaign last year. Hyman now has five goals in his last six games against Vegas.

Up next

Golden Knights: Head to Seattle to face the Kraken on Friday.

Oilers: Travel to Vancouver on a quick one-game trip to clash with the Canucks on Saturday.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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