WASHINGTON – Americans are facing a decision about the future of their country and no matter which president they choose, Canada cannot escape the pull of political polarization from its closest neighbour.
Vice-President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump present starkly different paths forward for the United States and the race for the White House appears to be extremely close.
The U.S. is Canada’s largest trading partner and its next president will be in charge during the review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement in 2026.
Harris has campaigned on the fact that she voted against the trilateral agreement, saying it didn’t do enough to protect American workers or the environment. The vice-president is largely expected to maintain President Joe Biden’s Buy American procurement rules.
The centrepiece of Trump’s agenda is a proposed 10 per cent across-the-board tariff.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S. and 60 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product is derived from trade.
The campaign has been unprecedented and tumultuous. Biden removed himself from the Democrats’ ticket after a disastrous presidential debate and Harris became the presidential candidate a little more than three months before election day.
There were also two assassination attempts on Trump. The image of blood streaming down his face, with a fist in the air, became a rallying call for the Republican leader’s most ardent supporters.
Here are five things to watch for as the votes come in:
Pennsylvania: Whichever candidate gets 270 electoral college votes gets the presidency. Pennsylvania’s 19 votes could prove the most crucial this election.
Both campaigns have indicated the state is part of their path to victory, and whoever wins the Keystone State may only need two other battleground states to take the White House.
What happens in Pennsylvania may also signal voting in the two other Midwestern battleground states.
“If you are looking at Pennsylvania, think about how voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are similar to each other,” said Matthew Lebo, a specialist in U.S. politics at Western University in London, Ont.
Other battleground states: Americans living in six other battleground states will play a critical role in the outcome on Tuesday.
Wisconsin and Michigan went to Trump in 2016 and swung to Biden in 2020.
Michigan may be of interest to many Canadians: Canada is that state’s top export market and it imported about US$50.9 billion in goods from its northern neighbour last year.
Georgia, North Carolina and the sunbelt states of Arizona and Nevada could also be key indicators for who will take the White House.
Senate: American voters will be making multiple choices in the voting booth, electing not only the president but also members of the Senate and the House of Representatives. Those down-ballot races are extremely important to determine who controls each chamber of Congress.
The Democrats currently control the Senate by a slim margin and 34 seats are up for grabs.
The Senate controls the process for presidents to appoint cabinet positions and has power over treaties. Depending on who is in control, there could be consequences for Canada, Lebo said.
For example, Trump has suggested vaccine-skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would have a big role in the administration, including public health policy.
“As Canadians, we want Americans to continue to get vaccinated,” Lebo said.
Specific races to watch: Democrat Sen. Jon Tester against Republican Tim Sheehy in Montana; GOP Sen. Ted Cruz versus Democrat Colin Allred in Texas and longtime Ohio Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown against Republican Bernie Moreno.
House of Representatives: All 435 seats in the House are up for grabs this election and the outcome could have far-reaching consequences for the incoming president. Republicans currently have a majority, but only by a small margin.
Specific races to watch: Virginia’s open-seat contest between Democrat Eugene Vindman and Republican Derrick Anderson; another open-seat contest in Michigan between Democrat Curtis Hertel and Republican Tom Barrett; and Nebraska’s fight between Republican incumbent Don Bacon and Democratic challenger Tony Vargas.
Misinformation: Trump has spent his final days on the campaign trail pushing baseless claims about the integrity of the election. He also said he shouldn’t have left the White House at the end of his last tenure, when he lost the election to Biden.
Whether his claims will motivate supporters to the polls remains to be seen but there’s worry it could sow chaos in the wake of the election, akin to when Trump loyalists stormed Capitol Hill on Jan. 6, 2021.
There are also concerns about misinformation being spread by foreign actors. U.S. intelligence officials have already pointed to videos purporting to show voter fraud in Georgia and Pennsylvania as the work of “Russian influence actors.”
U.S. officials say the goal is to stoke division and raise questions about the outcome of the election.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.
— With files from The Associated Press
