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Canada Tries To Bail Out Real Estate Developers With 30-Year Mortgages – Better Dwelling

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Canada is rolling out new policies to help its highly indebted households support soft demand for new housing. Earlier today, the Government of Canada (GoC) announced new measures to increase the amount of capital used to buy new homes. New home sales have been weak at these prices, and rather than letting prices fall, it appears policymakers have concocted a scheme to make the higher prices more “affordable.” Not just by increasing the amount of debt households can carry, but they’re also encouraging first-time buyer’s to divert more money from the country’s capital markets and put it towards housing.

Canada To “Help” First-Time Home Buyers To Pay Higher Prices

Canadian finance minister Chrystia Freeland announced new measures to help with “affordability.” Starting August 1st, mortgage lenders can start offering 30-year amortizations to first-time home buyers. These loans will be restricted to new construction. 

In addition, Canada will also dramatically raise RRSP withdrawal limits. First-time buyers will see the amount they can withdraw for a down payment increase to $60,000. That’s double the current limit in place. 

Canada Is Really Just Bailing Out Developers With Soft Home Sales

The measures are being sold as an affordability scheme, but appear to be a developer bailout. Recent new construction demand has been soft at the current prices, meaning incoming price cuts need to be made in order to keep inventory moving. As a result, developers are looking to minimize exposure to any potential price declines by pausing or reducing new projects. 

Rather than prices coming down, they want first-time buyers to be able to pay more over a longer period. Extending amortizations from 25 to 30 years allows a borrower to qualify for a loan about 7% larger, at the expense of more interest over a longer period.  

Canada Says Improving Affordability. Central Banks Call It Stimulus

Measures like those introduced today are called “demand inducement” schemes. They’re exactly as they sound—a way to get more people to purchase something. They usually involve expanding debt service capacity or diverting capital from “less important” areas to help stabilize prices. The US deployed similar strategies after the Dot Com bubble, resulting in the 2006 Housing Bubble. 

It was followed by another one once prices started to fall, a strategy they thought so effective they declared the market correction over by 2008 (spoiler: it wasn’t). The big difference is the US openly stated these measures were designed to stimulate demand and increase home prices, whereas Canada has said the same type of strategies will improve affordability

It’s an odd sales pitch, since virtually no data agrees with it. The increased amortization has a similar impact to lowering interest rates, allowing borrowers to qualify for larger loans. Bank of Canada (BoC) researchers have demonstrated that only lowering carrying costs doesn’t improve affordability. It produced the opposite effect, actually driving home prices higher over the past 30 years as the increased credit capacity is absorbed by home prices. 

US Federal Reserve researchers also looked at the influence of lower carrying costs earlier this month. They suggested the belief that this improves affordability is “naive,” since it ignores the influence it has on demand. Afterall, cheap credit is meant to stimulate demand and raise prices, as per basic monetary policy theory. 

The RRSP withdrawal increase will also throw gas on the fire—and not the fires increasingly burning down new homes at stalled construction projects. Canada is seeing global capital flee its capital markets at a record rate, primarily due to the lack of productive growth.  

Productive investment isn’t flowing into markets as a result of more and more investment being sunk into housing. Canada isn’t just encouraging people to sink more money into housing, but also wants people to take more capital out of their RRSPs. The country is doubling down on the transfer of money from capital markets to non-productive shelter investment.  

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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