TORONTO —
Canada could see as many as 16,000 COVID-19 deaths by the end of the year if current public safety measures don’t change, according to new modelling from the United States that has provided accurate assessments of the American death toll.
But a Canadian pandemic modelling expert says that, while anything is possible, the American model may not be capturing the whole picture in Canada.
The model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington suggests Canada could see 16,214 deaths by Jan. 1 based on the current situation. If public safety mandates are loosened, such as physical distancing, the death toll could be even higher, hitting a projected 16,743 lives lost.
Universal masking in public spaces could curb those numbers and save thousands of lives, the model suggests, pointing to countries like Singapore that have successfully put in place masking protocols that are 95 per cent effective. Singapore has reported 27 deaths since the start of the pandemic.
If Canada were to successfully implement similar rules, the modelling predicts a death toll of 12,053.
So far Canada has reported 9,256 deaths from COVID-19 and more than 150,000 cases. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau warned earlier this week that the country is at the beginning of a second wave of infections as he urged Canadians to take public health guidance seriously.
Quebec is leading the country with new cases of COVID-19. On Saturday, the province reported another 698 cases, the highest daily infection numbers since May.
Dionne Aleman, an associate professor at the University of Toronto who specializes in mathematical models for pandemic prediction, said the IHME model is “simplistic” and does not account for regional differences across the country.
While a second wave of COVID-19 infections has started, Aleman points out that deaths are not in a second wave. COVID-19 deaths in Canada peaked in April and May, when more than 100 people died in connection with the virus daily. Those numbers have remained much lower in recent months, with five deaths reported on Friday.
“The fact that deaths are not tracking with infections as they did in the first wave indicates that vulnerable individuals are taking more precautions to protect themselves now, and it is reasonable to assume those precautions will continue as the second wave gets worse. This model does not account for the fact that some people are behaving differently from others, and thus, the projected deaths are likely overstated,” Aleman told CTVNews.ca on Saturday over email.
The latest modelling by the Public Health Agency of Canada does not offer predictions to the end of the year, but suggests that, based on current rates, the death toll could steadily rise to 9,300 lives lost by Oct. 2.
The IMHE modelling has proven to be accurate. Earlier this year, the model predicted that the U.S. would hit 200,000 deaths in September, a grim milestone that happened earlier this week. Now, the model predicts the U.S. death toll will nearly double by the end of the year, reaching 371,509 by Jan. 1.
The IMHE model also predicts daily infections — a number that includes people who aren’t tested for COVID-19 — could hit more than 19,000 by the end of the year.
Aleman said it’s important to remember that, even if a person doesn’t die from COVID-19, the consequences of getting sick can be serious.
“There are numerous examples of otherwise healthy individuals with severe reactions to COVID taking several weeks and even months to recover, and there are indications that there could be long-term health consequences,” she said.
“We should view these projections of exponential infection increase with great concern, and we as individuals should take every reasonable precaution to stem this increase before it is too far out of control. Wearing masks is easy and effective, and we should do it.”
Infections may be on the upswing, but Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam said Saturday that limiting personal contacts as much as possible can help once again flatten the curve. She encouraged Canadians to take time this weekend to chat with loved ones about how to keep their bubbles safer.
“Even if people attending an event are part of your extended family, as has been the case with some of these private gathering outbreaks, it doesn’t mean they are not infected, even if no one appears to be unwell,” Tam said in a statement.
“Despite the very real concern of a large resurgence in areas where the virus is escalating, there is still reason to be optimistic that we can get things back to the slow burn.”
TORONTO – MLSE president and CEO Keith Pelley and Toronto FC’s top officials have promised change at the ailing MLS club, which is sitting out the playoffs for the fourth straight season.
Pelley says while the franchise’s entire organizational structure is under review, it is going to take some time to find the right answers.
Coach John Herdman says he is looking for young, athletic and durable talent to help turn around a club which he said started the season strongly but finished weakly.
Toronto (11-19-4) was eliminated from playoff contention in a 1-0 loss Oct. 5 to visiting Inter Miami. It will watch the regular season finale from the sidelines, with a bye the final weekend.
Toronto has not made the playoffs since 2020, when it exited at the first hurdle in an upset loss to expansion Nashville. Its regular-season record since then is 30-75-21, with coaches Chris Armas and Bob Bradley fired along the way.
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This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024
HAMILTON – There’ll be no playoff games this year for the Hamilton Tiger-Cats but head coach Scott Milanovich feels the club can get a head start on changing that narrative in 2025.
Hamilton hosts Calgary on Friday night in a battle between two non-playoff teams. The Ticats will finish fourth in the East Division while the Stampeders remain fifth in the West, three points behind idle Edmonton with two regular-season games remaining.
“There’s momentum that can be built at the end of the season,” said Milanovich, who’s completing his first season as Hamilton’s head coach/offensive coordinator. “I’ve been part of situations where momentum was built and then the following season it took off.
“What I don’t want to have happen is have a lull where you lose what we’ve kind of started building over the last six weeks. I want to take that into the off-season and training camp.”
Hamilton (6-10) played itself back into playoff contention with four straight victories before suffering a 31-10 home loss to Winnipeg on Oct. 4. The Toronto Argonauts (9-7) eliminated the Ticats from post-season contention with a 14-11 road win over the Blue Bombers last Friday.
For some coaches, that would present an opportunity to audition new players under game conditions. But Milanovich said his priority is to field the best team possible in order to secure the victory, although he did leave the door open to getting backup quarterback Taylor Powell some reps down the stretch.
“He may not play, I’m not making any promises,” Milanovich said. “But other than him we’re playing the best guys available.”
With that in mind, rookie Greg Bell will start at running back ahead of veteran James Butler, who’ll come off the roster. Cornerback Jamal Peters (neck) is out while defensive lineman Nick Usher (ankle) returns.
For Calgary (4-11-1), receiver Cam Echols (head) comes into the lineup while receiver Cam Tucker (hamstring) goes off.
Hamilton starter Bo Levi Mitchell will get a second shot at earning his first win over his former team. Mitchell, who spent his first 10 CFL seasons with Calgary before joining the Ticats in 2023, completed 27-of-38 passes for 300 yards with a TD and interception in a 32-24 season-opening road loss to the Stampeders on June 7.
Mitchell leads the CFL in passing yards (4,576), touchdowns (26) and interceptions (16). The 34-year-old Texan, a two-time Grey Cup champion and twice the league’s outstanding player, is closing in on his third 5,000-yard passing campaign.
The contest is Hamilton’s last this season at Tim Hortons Field, where it is 3-5. But the Ticats have won three of their last four home games against Calgary.
Life on the road has been miserable for the Stampeders, who’re 0-7 this season away from McMahon Stadium. In fact, they’re just 1-12 in their last 13 games away from home.
Having said that, though, Calgary is looking for its first season sweep of Hamilton since 2018.
“We’re trying to win, that’s the first priority and will always be,” Dave Dickenson, Calgary’s head coach/GM, told reporters in the Alberta city this week. “We’ll probably rotate more, for sure we will … but we still expect the same performance and the same execution no matter who plays.”
American Matt Shiltz will start at quarterback for Calgary. He was 18-of-33 passing for 215 yards with a TD an interception in the Stamps’ 23-18 home loss to Edmonton (6-11) last week while rushing five times for 64 yards.
Shiltz spent two seasons in Hamilton (2022-23) before joining the Stampeders in free agency.
“I think he did some good things for us (versus Edmonton),” Dickenson said of Shiltz. “He’s going up against his former team and probably has some familiarity there but different coaches.
“Hopefully he feels good with how our offence is structured and can make plays.”
Calgary is riding an eight-game winless streak (0-7-1) and sports a 2-4-1 record against East Division teams. Hamilton is 2-7 versus the West Division.
Both teams will finish their season on the road. Hamilton travels to Ottawa on Oct. 25 while Calgary visits Saskatchewan the following night.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
TORONTO – Immanuel Quickley is questionable for the Toronto Raptors final pre-season game.
The guard has missed Toronto’s first four tune-up games with a sprained thumb.
Raptors head coach Darko Rajakovic says that Quickley has been cleared for all practice and team activities but that the team would be cautious about putting him into an actual game.
Toronto visits the Brooklyn Nets on Friday to close out its pre-season, then hosts the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday in its home opener.
Quickley moved over to point guard after the Raptors acquired him on Dec. 30 in a trade with the New York Knicks.
He averaged 18.6 points, 6.8 assists and 4.8 rebounds in 38 games for Toronto in that new role last season.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
