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Canada’s debt: Highlights from the fall economic update

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OTTAWA –

The federal Liberals unveiled their fall economic update Thursday — a 92-page mini-budget setting out Canada’s fiscal situation and outlining new policies to tackle cost-of-living woes.

The word “inflation” appears more than 100 times in the document, making clear the government’s primary economic concern.

But beyond the top-line debt projections and the analysis of how Canada seeks to soften the impact of a potential recession, the fiscal update offers key details that shed light on Liberal priorities.

Here’s a look at five highlights.

1. FIONA RELIEF

The Liberals are expecting to spend $1 billion in the current financial year toward provincial requests related to post-tropical storm Fiona, which savaged Atlantic Canada and eastern Quebec in late September.

That figure is on top of the $300 million over two years that the feds announced in early October in the wake of the devastating storm, and its month-long matching of donations to the Canadian Red Cross.

The new money is expected to cover requests from provinces under the Disaster Financial Assistance Arrangements, under which the federal government covers up to 90 per cent of eligible provincial expenses in the three months following a disaster.

2. INFRASTRUCTURE FUNDING

In last spring’s budget, the government announced an accelerated deadline for $33.5 billion in public infrastructure projects that had been promised in 2017. The fall statement says $23 billion has been approved so far for 5,200 projects submitted by provinces and territories.

While territories have until March 2025 to allocate the money, the provincial deadline is March 2023 — otherwise the money will be reallocated.

Alberta and Manitoba only have one per cent of their funding envelopes left, representing $50.5 million and $13.6 million respectively. And though Ontario has used up all but four per cent, that still represents a significant amount of money at more than $450 million.

On the other end of the spectrum, Quebec is the biggest laggard, with 37 per cent of its envelope or $2.75 billion still available. The next-biggest amount is British Columbia’s $661 million, representing 17 per cent of its share.

Among the Atlantic provinces, Newfoundland and Labrador still has 38 per cent or $213 million; Nova Scotia has 31 per cent or $259 million; New Brunswick has 17 per cent or $113 million and Prince Edward Island has 16 per cent or $57 million.

3. CRYPTOCURRENCY CONSULTATIONS

The financial statement contains an announcement that consultations are launching right away — the same day as its release Thursday — on digital currencies “including cryptocurrencies, stablecoins and central bank digital currencies.”

Canada’s fiscal framework needs to keep pace with the rise of the currencies and how the digitization of money is “transforming financial systems in Canada and around the world,” the document says.

And the government is also seeking to understand the challenges digital currency poses to democratic institutions, with some types of crypto being used to avoid global sanctions and fund illegal activities.

The new consultations follow a legislative review announced in last spring’s budget. They also follow attacks on new Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre for his suggestion during the Tory leadership campaign that cryptocurrencies could help Canadians “opt out” of inflation — an assertion that Liberals have ridiculed after the value of cryptocurrencies plummeted earlier this year.

In a separate process, the Bank of Canada has studied the potential for a central bank digital currency. It has said it doesn’t anticipate the need for it right now but wants to be prepared if that changes in the future.

4. TRUCKERS’ RIGHTS

Individual truckers may have formed the genesis of the “Freedom Convoy” protest that descended on Ottawa last winter and prompted the Liberals’ use of emergency powers to clear protesters — a decision currently being scrutinized at a high-profile public inquiry.

But Liberals are signalling their support for the industry with their mini-budget, putting $26.3 million over five years toward orders, fines and prosecutions against non-compliant trucking industry employers.

The money seeks to address the ongoing issue of companies having truck drivers self-incorporate and operate as independent contractors instead of being classified as employees. This denies them labour rights including paid sick leave, health and safety standards and employment insurance and pension contributions, the document says.

The Canada Revenue Agency is also working to “encourage greater awareness” and “foster compliance” with tax rules that govern the use of incorporated employees, something the feds say they will elaborate on in next spring’s budget.

5. IMMIGRATION SUPPORT

The fall statement unveils the amount of funding Liberals expect to put toward a new immigration strategy they unveiled earlier in the week.

On Tuesday, the government announced that it will seek to increase immigration to record levels, bringing in 500,000 arrivals in 2025. Liberals plan for the majority to be skilled workers who can help fill labour shortages in healthcare, manufacturing and the building trades.

Support for the processing of applications and settlement of new permanent residents will cost $1.6 billion over six years and $315 million in new, ongoing funding, the fall statement says.

With Liberals facing criticism for bottlenecks in Canada’s immigration process, another $50 million will go toward the immigration department in the current fiscal year “to address ongoing application backlogs, speed up processing and allow for skilled newcomers to fill critical labour gaps faster.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 3, 2022.

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STD epidemic slows as new syphilis and gonorrhea cases fall in US

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NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. syphilis epidemic slowed dramatically last year, gonorrhea cases fell and chlamydia cases remained below prepandemic levels, according to federal data released Tuesday.

The numbers represented some good news about sexually transmitted diseases, which experienced some alarming increases in past years due to declining condom use, inadequate sex education, and reduced testing and treatment when the COVID-19 pandemic hit.

Last year, cases of the most infectious stages of syphilis fell 10% from the year before — the first substantial decline in more than two decades. Gonorrhea cases dropped 7%, marking a second straight year of decline and bringing the number below what it was in 2019.

“I’m encouraged, and it’s been a long time since I felt that way” about the nation’s epidemic of sexually transmitted infections, said the CDC’s Dr. Jonathan Mermin. “Something is working.”

More than 2.4 million cases of syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia were diagnosed and reported last year — 1.6 million cases of chlamydia, 600,000 of gonorrhea, and more than 209,000 of syphilis.

Syphilis is a particular concern. For centuries, it was a common but feared infection that could deform the body and end in death. New cases plummeted in the U.S. starting in the 1940s when infection-fighting antibiotics became widely available, and they trended down for a half century after that. By 2002, however, cases began rising again, with men who have sex with other men being disproportionately affected.

The new report found cases of syphilis in their early, most infectious stages dropped 13% among gay and bisexual men. It was the first such drop since the agency began reporting data for that group in the mid-2000s.

However, there was a 12% increase in the rate of cases of unknown- or later-stage syphilis — a reflection of people infected years ago.

Cases of syphilis in newborns, passed on from infected mothers, also rose. There were nearly 4,000 cases, including 279 stillbirths and infant deaths.

“This means pregnant women are not being tested often enough,” said Dr. Jeffrey Klausner, a professor of medicine at the University of Southern California.

What caused some of the STD trends to improve? Several experts say one contributor is the growing use of an antibiotic as a “morning-after pill.” Studies have shown that taking doxycycline within 72 hours of unprotected sex cuts the risk of developing syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia.

In June, the CDC started recommending doxycycline as a morning-after pill, specifically for gay and bisexual men and transgender women who recently had an STD diagnosis. But health departments and organizations in some cities had been giving the pills to people for a couple years.

Some experts believe that the 2022 mpox outbreak — which mainly hit gay and bisexual men — may have had a lingering effect on sexual behavior in 2023, or at least on people’s willingness to get tested when strange sores appeared.

Another factor may have been an increase in the number of health workers testing people for infections, doing contact tracing and connecting people to treatment. Congress gave $1.2 billion to expand the workforce over five years, including $600 million to states, cities and territories that get STD prevention funding from CDC.

Last year had the “most activity with that funding throughout the U.S.,” said David Harvey, executive director of the National Coalition of STD Directors.

However, Congress ended the funds early as a part of last year’s debt ceiling deal, cutting off $400 million. Some people already have lost their jobs, said a spokeswoman for Harvey’s organization.

Still, Harvey said he had reasons for optimism, including the growing use of doxycycline and a push for at-home STD test kits.

Also, there are reasons to think the next presidential administration could get behind STD prevention. In 2019, then-President Donald Trump announced a campaign to “eliminate” the U.S. HIV epidemic by 2030. (Federal health officials later clarified that the actual goal was a huge reduction in new infections — fewer than 3,000 a year.)

There were nearly 32,000 new HIV infections in 2022, the CDC estimates. But a boost in public health funding for HIV could also also help bring down other sexually transmitted infections, experts said.

“When the government puts in resources, puts in money, we see declines in STDs,” Klausner said.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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World’s largest active volcano Mauna Loa showed telltale warning signs before erupting in 2022

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Scientists can’t know precisely when a volcano is about to erupt, but they can sometimes pick up telltale signs.

That happened two years ago with the world’s largest active volcano. About two months before Mauna Loa spewed rivers of glowing orange molten lava, geologists detected small earthquakes nearby and other signs, and they warned residents on Hawaii‘s Big Island.

Now a study of the volcano’s lava confirms their timeline for when the molten rock below was on the move.

“Volcanoes are tricky because we don’t get to watch directly what’s happening inside – we have to look for other signs,” said Erik Klemetti Gonzalez, a volcano expert at Denison University, who was not involved in the study.

Upswelling ground and increased earthquake activity near the volcano resulted from magma rising from lower levels of Earth’s crust to fill chambers beneath the volcano, said Kendra Lynn, a research geologist at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory and co-author of a new study in Nature Communications.

When pressure was high enough, the magma broke through brittle surface rock and became lava – and the eruption began in late November 2022. Later, researchers collected samples of volcanic rock for analysis.

The chemical makeup of certain crystals within the lava indicated that around 70 days before the eruption, large quantities of molten rock had moved from around 1.9 miles (3 kilometers) to 3 miles (5 kilometers) under the summit to a mile (2 kilometers) or less beneath, the study found. This matched the timeline the geologists had observed with other signs.

The last time Mauna Loa erupted was in 1984. Most of the U.S. volcanoes that scientists consider to be active are found in Hawaii, Alaska and the West Coast.

Worldwide, around 585 volcanoes are considered active.

Scientists can’t predict eruptions, but they can make a “forecast,” said Ben Andrews, who heads the global volcano program at the Smithsonian Institution and who was not involved in the study.

Andrews compared volcano forecasts to weather forecasts – informed “probabilities” that an event will occur. And better data about the past behavior of specific volcanos can help researchers finetune forecasts of future activity, experts say.

(asterisk)We can look for similar patterns in the future and expect that there’s a higher probability of conditions for an eruption happening,” said Klemetti Gonzalez.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Waymo’s robotaxis now open to anyone who wants a driverless ride in Los Angeles

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Waymo on Tuesday opened its robotaxi service to anyone who wants a ride around Los Angeles, marking another milestone in the evolution of self-driving car technology since the company began as a secret project at Google 15 years ago.

The expansion comes eight months after Waymo began offering rides in Los Angeles to a limited group of passengers chosen from a waiting list that had ballooned to more than 300,000 people. Now, anyone with the Waymo One smartphone app will be able to request a ride around an 80-square-mile (129-square-kilometer) territory spanning the second largest U.S. city.

After Waymo received approval from California regulators to charge for rides 15 months ago, the company initially chose to launch its operations in San Francisco before offering a limited service in Los Angeles.

Before deciding to compete against conventional ride-hailing pioneers Uber and Lyft in California, Waymo unleashed its robotaxis in Phoenix in 2020 and has been steadily extending the reach of its service in that Arizona city ever since.

Driverless rides are proving to be more than just a novelty. Waymo says it now transports more than 50,000 weekly passengers in its robotaxis, a volume of business numbers that helped the company recently raise $5.6 billion from its corporate parent Alphabet and a list of other investors that included venture capital firm Andreesen Horowitz and financial management firm T. Rowe Price.

“Our service has matured quickly and our riders are embracing the many benefits of fully autonomous driving,” Waymo co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana said in a blog post.

Despite its inroads, Waymo is still believed to be losing money. Although Alphabet doesn’t disclose Waymo’s financial results, the robotaxi is a major part of an “Other Bets” division that had suffered an operating loss of $3.3 billion through the first nine months of this year, down from a setback of $4.2 billion at the same time last year.

But Waymo has come a long way since Google began working on self-driving cars in 2009 as part of project “Chauffeur.” Since its 2016 spinoff from Google, Waymo has established itself as the clear leader in a robotaxi industry that’s getting more congested.

Electric auto pioneer Tesla is aiming to launch a rival “Cybercab” service by 2026, although its CEO Elon Musk said he hopes the company can get the required regulatory clearances to operate in Texas and California by next year.

Tesla’s projected timeline for competing against Waymo has been met with skepticism because Musk has made unfulfilled promises about the company’s self-driving car technology for nearly a decade.

Meanwhile, Waymo’s robotaxis have driven more than 20 million fully autonomous miles and provided more than 2 million rides to passengers without encountering a serious accident that resulted in its operations being sidelined.

That safety record is a stark contrast to one of its early rivals, Cruise, a robotaxi service owned by General Motors. Cruise’s California license was suspended last year after one of its driverless cars in San Francisco dragged a jaywalking pedestrian who had been struck by a different car driven by a human.

Cruise is now trying to rebound by joining forces with Uber to make some of its services available next year in U.S. cities that still haven’t been announced. But Waymo also has forged a similar alliance with Uber to dispatch its robotaxi in Atlanta and Austin, Texas next year.

Another robotaxi service, Amazon’s Zoox, is hoping to begin offering driverless rides to the general public in Las Vegas at some point next year before also launching in San Francisco.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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