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Canada’s economy ended 2022 with a ‘thud.’ What does that mean for a recession? – Global News

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Canada’s economy stalled to end 2022, new data shows, but some economists say strong underlying demand could keep a recession at bay for longer or skirt the downturn entirely.

Statistics Canada said Tuesday that real gross domestic product (GDP) was “nearly unchanged” in the final quarter of last year, snapping a streak of growth for the preceding five quarters.

The actual GDP figures were a surprise to many economists, with the consensus expecting growth of 1.6 per cent in the fourth quarter. The Bank of Canada had expected growth of 1.3 per cent last quarter.

Read more:

It was a ‘blowout’ jobs gain in January. What could this mean for rate hikes, recession?

“It was a little bit shocking when we saw that,” says James Orlando, senior economist with TD Bank.

Orlando tells Global News that while flat growth might sound grim — he called it a “thud” of an economic release in a note to clients Tuesday — the details reveal more strength in the economy than the headline number suggests.

For instance, lower inventory accumulations were the main drag on GDP last quarter, StatCan said, following record growth for this segment in the second and third quarters of 2022.

Orlando says this is mostly an aftershock from the COVID-19 pandemic still reverberating through the economy. Businesses rushed to build their inventories back up after pandemic restrictions lifted — hence the record quarters — but pumped the brakes on production towards the end of the year when fears of a recession started to show on the horizon.

“For a business, you don’t want to be stuck with a lot of inventory if the economy slows down,” Orlando says.


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StatCan said businesses’ investments in machinery, equipment and housing declined in the final months of 2022, though Orlando says that was roughly in line with what economists expected.

Hidden in the flat GDP reading was solid consumer demand, Orlando noted, with spending here up two per cent annually.

“You’ve got to look past the inventories to see the underlying decent fundamentals in the economy, specifically on the consumer side,” he says.

Economic rebound to start 2023?

While Statistics Canada said real GDP declined by 0.1 per cent in December, the agency also said early indications suggest growth of 0.3 per cent month-to-month in January.

A few economic readings support the strong start to the year, Orlando notes. TD’s credit card tracker suggests Canadians kept spending in January despite expectations of an economic slowdown; a blockbuster jobs report for the month also supports continued demand from consumers.

Despite the Q4 “thud,” TD Bank expects growth in the first quarter of 2023 will rebound to 0.3 per cent annualized.

This pushes against thinking that Canada could start the new year in a recession, Orlando says. While TD is expecting an economic slowdown with negative growth in the third quarter, the bank is not currently calling for a recession in 2023.

Orlando says the strong jobs figures – the economy added 150,000 positions in January – are backing continued spending from Canadian households, which can in turn buoy GDP growth and push economic activity higher overall this year.

“It goes against the narrative of the hard landing,” he says.

“Everyone is expecting the slowdown in spending, the slowdown in the labour market, but the impact of the good data we’ve got could keep carrying through and keep this momentum going for a little while longer.”


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Not all economists are sure that a strong start to 2023 is enough to skirt a recession this year.

Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics, acknowledges that the economy will probably grow “marginally” in the first quarter of 2023, but he doesn’t expect that momentum to last.

He points to the “temporary” nature of some of the factors fuelling the strong advance numbers for January, including relatively warmer weather across the country, which tends to be favourable for consumer spending.

Leading indicators such as business sentiment surveys suggest GDP is set to stagnate or outright decline through the middle of the year, Brown says.

“I think the risks of recession are still real and we are still forecasting a recession over the second and third quarters.”

Read more:

What is a recession? Here’s how a hit to Canada’s economy might impact you

Brown notes, however, that he doesn’t expect a large rise in overall unemployment in Canada during the downturn, as some sectors, such as high-touch services including travel and dining out, continue their long recovery from the pandemic.

The latest provincial outlook from The Conference Board of Canada released Tuesday meanwhile predicts the country will see very little improvement in the economy this year and at least one quarter of negative economic growth.

But the think tank also says the worst-case scenarios of a protracted recession or highly destabilized labour and capital markets are becoming less likely.


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Among the provinces, the report says Newfoundland and Labrador will have the fastest-growing economy this year as the Terra Nova offshore oil platform returns to production.

The Conference Board says the Alberta and Saskatchewan economies will also perform well in the near term, powered by the oil and gas sector and favourable outlooks in agriculture.

On the other end of the spectrum, the report says the economies of Quebec and New Brunswick will be nearly flat this year before returning to growth in 2024.

What does this mean for the Bank of Canada?

Orlando said the central bank’s governing council likely “feels vindicated” about its plans for a conditional pause in interest rate increases to assess whether their hikes to date have been effective enough in cooling down the economy and, by extension, inflation.

“The Bank of Canada doesn’t really have to do anything,” he says.

“Obviously, they’re going to be sitting, watching, making sure that things don’t really start to surge too much. But I think they’re going to be pretty content being where they are and just watching the incoming data.”

Brown says the Bank of Canada, which is set to announce its next interest rate decision March 8, finds itself in a distinct position from its peers in central banking. Price pressures are proving “a bit stickier than expected” in the U.S. and Europe he says, while the inflation outlook in Canada is “quite encouraging,” coming in lower than expected at annual rate of 5.9 per cent last month.

Read more:

Inflation keeps cooling. Does that mean we’re done with interest rate hikes?

“Coupled with GDP being weaker than expected, that’s all consistent with the bank remaining comfortable with this conditional pause that it told us about in January,” he says.

The Bank’s policymakers are likely to remain cagey on timing for interest rate cuts, Brown says, with the upside risks to inflation keeping odds closer to additional hikes than reductions in the months ahead.

— with files from The Canadian Press


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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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