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Canada's economy endured an historic collapse in 2020, but surged into 2021 faster than most expected – Financial Post

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Kevin Carmichael: A housing boom has lessened economic pain of the recession, but at expense of deepening vulnerabilities that existed before pandemic

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Canada’s economy surged into 2021 with more momentum than most expected, as companies restocked in anticipation of future demand and those Canadians left relatively unscathed by the COVID-19 crisis continued to plow money into real estate.

Statistics Canada on March 2 reported that gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 9.6 per cent in the fourth quarter, about twice as fast as the Bank of Canada predicted in its latest economic outlook in January.

The miss probably won’t significantly alter the central bank’s plans, at least not until a critical mass of the population is vaccinated and it becomes clear that COVID-19 variants don’t pose a significant danger. The rebuilding of stockpiles accounted for about 75 per cent of the growth in the fourth quarter, and economists tend to distrust inventories as a predictor of underlying demand. Household spending dropped at an annual rate of 0.4 per cent, reflecting stricter pandemic controls and elevated unemployment levels.

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Weak employment swamps all other concerns in Ottawa right now. Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem last week reiterated that he intends to keep interest rates extremely low for at least a couple of years, telling the Calgary Herald’s Chris Varcoe that “we are losing productive workers, we are losing productive capacity in our economy.”

Statistics Canada’s preliminary accounting of economic output in 2020 makes Macklem’s case. The hole left by the COVID-19 crisis is immense: GDP contracted by 5.4 per cent in 2020, the biggest collapse since 1961, when the agency began tallying quarterly economic output. By comparison, GDP dropped 2.9 per cent in 2009 in the wake of the Great Recession, and decreased 3.2 per cent in 1982, when many of the world’s richest countries were grappling with high interest, inflation and unemployment rates.

The 2020 recession was unusual because service providers took the biggest hit. Many of those companies remain the most vulnerable to the virus and the approaches governments take to managing the pandemic. Output by the food, beverage and accommodation industry dropped 11 per cent in the four quarter from the third quarter, Statistics Canada said.

“We have started laying off people now permanently,” Charles Khabouth, chief executive of Ink Entertainment, a Toronto-based owner of bars and restaurants, told the Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn on Feb. 25. “We will probably be 25 (per cent) to a third less employees than before the pandemic.”

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Still, for many investors, the economic destruction of 2020 is last year’s story. Financial markets have grown edgy about inflation, and evidence of faster-than-expected growth could exacerbate such worries. Statistics Canada in a separate report on March 2 said GDP likely increased 0.5 per cent in January from the previous month, suggesting the first-quarter contraction that the Bank of Canada and others anticipated will be avoided.

Housing is the controversial star of the recovery story, albeit with substantial support from the federal government and central bank.

Investment in real estate increased 3.9 per cent in 2020, defying early warnings from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) that the recession could crush our insatiable demand for houses. Instead, spending patterns shifted, as professionals bet on a future in which they would be working from home, rather than making daily commutes to the office.

Buyers sought bigger properties in suburbs and smaller cities, spreading the mania that has long gripped Vancouver and Toronto to places such as Ottawa and Moncton, N.B. They were able to do so because they were either among the lucky ones who kept working, or because they benefited from generous emergency assistance.

Disposable income increased 10 per cent from 2019 because the federal government opted for emergency benefits that erred on the side of too much, rather than too little. The savings rate surged to 15.1 per cent in 2020, as households hoarded salaries and benefit payments equivalent to the previous seven years combined, Statistics Canada said.

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The combination left many households primed to take advantage of near-zero interest rates, which the Bank of Canada would have anticipated, although perhaps not to the extent that ultimately transpired. Macklem last week said he was seeing early signs of “excess exuberance” in the housing market.

In the short term, the housing boom has lessened the economic pain of the recession, but at the expense of deepening vulnerabilities that existed before the pandemic.

  1. The pandemic is putting a strain on many Canadians' mental health.

    The hidden threat to Canada’s economic recovery — our mental health

  2. Evan Siddall, president and chief executive officer of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.

    ‘Never pretended to have a crystal ball’: Housing market boom prompts mea culpa from CMHC head

  3. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said the economy will need support for quite some time.

    Bank of Canada governor indicates readiness to let economy run hot to include more people in recovery

  4. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland.

    Business leaders are worried politicians aren’t paying enough attention to the long haul

“We never pretended to have a crystal ball,” Evan Siddall, the head of CMHC, tweeted on March 1. “We remain very concerned about even a partial reversal” of the factors driving demand, he said in a separate tweet, adding a list of negative side effects that include increased debt, the diversion of capital to an unproductive investment, and increasing inequality between owners and renters.

An unambiguously positive surprise has been the rebound in exports. Canadian governments were unwilling to impose the same strict lockdown measures that allowed Asian economies to crush the virus, nor were they willing to tolerate the death toll that came with the laxer approach to social distancing in the United States. But exporters are benefiting from resurgent demand from both of those places, especially Asia, which is driving commodity prices higher.

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Cargo through the Port of Vancouver increased one per cent last year, despite an epic recession, led by record shipments of grain and potash. “We’ve been very fortunate,” Robin Silvester, chief executive of the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority, said in an interview on March 1. “We’re seeing a really strong start to the year, continuing the trend that we saw toward the end of 2020.”

That’s good, because Canada’s economy will need ballast for a while yet. “Nobody is going to book anything now until 2022,” Khabouth said. “In my opinion, 2021, on a large scale, is a writeoff for primarily all of Canada.”

Financial Post

• Email: kcarmichael@postmedia.com | Twitter:

In-depth reporting on the innovation economy from The Logic, brought to you in partnership with the Financial Post.

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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