adplus-dvertising
Connect with us

Business

Canada's economy endured an historic collapse in 2020, but surged into 2021 faster than most expected – Financial Post

Published

 on


Kevin Carmichael: A housing boom has lessened economic pain of the recession, but at expense of deepening vulnerabilities that existed before pandemic

Article content

Canada’s economy surged into 2021 with more momentum than most expected, as companies restocked in anticipation of future demand and those Canadians left relatively unscathed by the COVID-19 crisis continued to plow money into real estate.

Statistics Canada on March 2 reported that gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 9.6 per cent in the fourth quarter, about twice as fast as the Bank of Canada predicted in its latest economic outlook in January.

The miss probably won’t significantly alter the central bank’s plans, at least not until a critical mass of the population is vaccinated and it becomes clear that COVID-19 variants don’t pose a significant danger. The rebuilding of stockpiles accounted for about 75 per cent of the growth in the fourth quarter, and economists tend to distrust inventories as a predictor of underlying demand. Household spending dropped at an annual rate of 0.4 per cent, reflecting stricter pandemic controls and elevated unemployment levels.

Advertisement

Story continues below

This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.

Article content

Weak employment swamps all other concerns in Ottawa right now. Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem last week reiterated that he intends to keep interest rates extremely low for at least a couple of years, telling the Calgary Herald’s Chris Varcoe that “we are losing productive workers, we are losing productive capacity in our economy.”

Statistics Canada’s preliminary accounting of economic output in 2020 makes Macklem’s case. The hole left by the COVID-19 crisis is immense: GDP contracted by 5.4 per cent in 2020, the biggest collapse since 1961, when the agency began tallying quarterly economic output. By comparison, GDP dropped 2.9 per cent in 2009 in the wake of the Great Recession, and decreased 3.2 per cent in 1982, when many of the world’s richest countries were grappling with high interest, inflation and unemployment rates.

The 2020 recession was unusual because service providers took the biggest hit. Many of those companies remain the most vulnerable to the virus and the approaches governments take to managing the pandemic. Output by the food, beverage and accommodation industry dropped 11 per cent in the four quarter from the third quarter, Statistics Canada said.

“We have started laying off people now permanently,” Charles Khabouth, chief executive of Ink Entertainment, a Toronto-based owner of bars and restaurants, told the Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn on Feb. 25. “We will probably be 25 (per cent) to a third less employees than before the pandemic.”

Advertisement

Story continues below

This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.

Article content

We apologize, but this video has failed to load.

Still, for many investors, the economic destruction of 2020 is last year’s story. Financial markets have grown edgy about inflation, and evidence of faster-than-expected growth could exacerbate such worries. Statistics Canada in a separate report on March 2 said GDP likely increased 0.5 per cent in January from the previous month, suggesting the first-quarter contraction that the Bank of Canada and others anticipated will be avoided.

Housing is the controversial star of the recovery story, albeit with substantial support from the federal government and central bank.

Investment in real estate increased 3.9 per cent in 2020, defying early warnings from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) that the recession could crush our insatiable demand for houses. Instead, spending patterns shifted, as professionals bet on a future in which they would be working from home, rather than making daily commutes to the office.

Buyers sought bigger properties in suburbs and smaller cities, spreading the mania that has long gripped Vancouver and Toronto to places such as Ottawa and Moncton, N.B. They were able to do so because they were either among the lucky ones who kept working, or because they benefited from generous emergency assistance.

Disposable income increased 10 per cent from 2019 because the federal government opted for emergency benefits that erred on the side of too much, rather than too little. The savings rate surged to 15.1 per cent in 2020, as households hoarded salaries and benefit payments equivalent to the previous seven years combined, Statistics Canada said.

Advertisement

Story continues below

This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.

Article content

The combination left many households primed to take advantage of near-zero interest rates, which the Bank of Canada would have anticipated, although perhaps not to the extent that ultimately transpired. Macklem last week said he was seeing early signs of “excess exuberance” in the housing market.

In the short term, the housing boom has lessened the economic pain of the recession, but at the expense of deepening vulnerabilities that existed before the pandemic.

  1. The pandemic is putting a strain on many Canadians' mental health.

    The hidden threat to Canada’s economic recovery — our mental health

  2. Evan Siddall, president and chief executive officer of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.

    ‘Never pretended to have a crystal ball’: Housing market boom prompts mea culpa from CMHC head

  3. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said the economy will need support for quite some time.

    Bank of Canada governor indicates readiness to let economy run hot to include more people in recovery

  4. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland.

    Business leaders are worried politicians aren’t paying enough attention to the long haul

“We never pretended to have a crystal ball,” Evan Siddall, the head of CMHC, tweeted on March 1. “We remain very concerned about even a partial reversal” of the factors driving demand, he said in a separate tweet, adding a list of negative side effects that include increased debt, the diversion of capital to an unproductive investment, and increasing inequality between owners and renters.

An unambiguously positive surprise has been the rebound in exports. Canadian governments were unwilling to impose the same strict lockdown measures that allowed Asian economies to crush the virus, nor were they willing to tolerate the death toll that came with the laxer approach to social distancing in the United States. But exporters are benefiting from resurgent demand from both of those places, especially Asia, which is driving commodity prices higher.

Advertisement

Story continues below

This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.

Article content

Cargo through the Port of Vancouver increased one per cent last year, despite an epic recession, led by record shipments of grain and potash. “We’ve been very fortunate,” Robin Silvester, chief executive of the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority, said in an interview on March 1. “We’re seeing a really strong start to the year, continuing the trend that we saw toward the end of 2020.”

That’s good, because Canada’s economy will need ballast for a while yet. “Nobody is going to book anything now until 2022,” Khabouth said. “In my opinion, 2021, on a large scale, is a writeoff for primarily all of Canada.”

Financial Post

• Email: kcarmichael@postmedia.com | Twitter:

In-depth reporting on the innovation economy from The Logic, brought to you in partnership with the Financial Post.

Comments

Postmedia is committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion and encourage all readers to share their views on our articles. Comments may take up to an hour for moderation before appearing on the site. We ask you to keep your comments relevant and respectful. We have enabled email notifications—you will now receive an email if you receive a reply to your comment, there is an update to a comment thread you follow or if a user you follow comments. Visit our Community Guidelines for more information and details on how to adjust your email settings.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

728x90x4

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Politics likely pushed Air Canada toward deal with ‘unheard of’ gains for pilots

Published

 on

 

MONTREAL – Politics, public opinion and salary hikes south of the border helped push Air Canada toward a deal that secures major pay gains for pilots, experts say.

Hammered out over the weekend, the would-be agreement includes a cumulative wage hike of nearly 42 per cent over four years — an enormous bump by historical standards — according to one source who was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter. The previous 10-year contract granted increases of just two per cent annually.

The federal government’s stated unwillingness to step in paved the way for a deal, noted John Gradek, after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made it plain the two sides should hash one out themselves.

“Public opinion basically pressed the federal cabinet, including the prime minister, to keep their hands clear of negotiations and looking at imposing a settlement,” said Gradek, who teaches aviation management at McGill University.

After late-night talks at a hotel near Toronto’s Pearson airport, the country’s biggest airline and the union representing 5,200-plus aviators announced early Sunday morning they had reached a tentative agreement, averting a strike that would have grounded flights and affected some 110,000 passengers daily.

The relative precariousness of the Liberal minority government as well as a push to appear more pro-labour underlay the prime minister’s hands-off approach to the negotiations.

Trudeau said Friday the government would not step in to fix the impasse — unlike during a massive railway work stoppage last month and a strike by WestJet mechanics over the Canada Day long weekend that workers claimed road roughshod over their constitutional right to collective bargaining. Trudeau said the government respects the right to strike and would only intervene if it became apparent no negotiated deal was possible.

“They felt that they really didn’t want to try for a third attempt at intervention and basically said, ‘Let’s let the airline decide how they want to deal with this one,'” said Gradek.

“Air Canada ran out of support as the week wore on, and by the time they got to Friday night, Saturday morning, there was nothing left for them to do but to basically try to get a deal set up and accepted by ALPA (Air Line Pilots Association).”

Trudeau’s government was also unlikely to consider back-to-work legislation after the NDP tore up its agreement to support the Liberal minority in Parliament, Gradek said. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, whose party has traditionally toed a more pro-business line, also said last week that Tories “stand with the pilots” and swore off “pre-empting” the negotiations.

Air Canada CEO Michael Rousseau had asked Ottawa on Thursday to impose binding arbitration pre-emptively — “before any travel disruption starts” — if talks failed. Backed by business leaders, he’d hoped for an effective repeat of the Conservatives’ move to head off a strike in 2012 by legislating Air Canada pilots and ground crew to stick to their posts before any work stoppage could start.

The request may have fallen flat, however. Gradek said he believes there was less anxiety over the fallout from an airline strike than from the countrywide railway shutdown.

He also speculated that public frustration over thousands of cancelled flights would have flowed toward Air Canada rather than Ottawa, prompting the carrier to concede to a deal yielding “unheard of” gains for employees.

“It really was a total collapse of the Air Canada bargaining position,” he said.

Pilots are slated to vote in the coming weeks on the four-year contract.

Last year, pilots at Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and American Airlines secured agreements that included four-year pay boosts ranging from 34 per cent to 40 per cent, ramping up pressure on other carriers to raise wages.

After more than a year of bargaining, Air Canada put forward an offer in August centred around a 30 per cent wage hike over four years.

But the final deal, should union members approve it, grants a 26 per cent increase in the first year alone, retroactive to September 2023, according to the source. Three wage bumps of four per cent would follow in 2024 through 2026.

Passengers may wind up shouldering some of that financial load, one expert noted.

“At the end of the day, it’s all us consumers who are paying,” said Barry Prentice, who heads the University of Manitoba’s transport institute.

Higher fares may be mitigated by the persistence of budget carrier Flair Airlines and the rapid expansion of Porter Airlines — a growing Air Canada rival — as well as waning demand for leisure trips. Corporate travel also remains below pre-COVID-19 levels.

Air Canada said Sunday the tentative contract “recognizes the contributions and professionalism of Air Canada’s pilot group, while providing a framework for the future growth of the airline.”

The union issued a statement saying that, if ratified, the agreement will generate about $1.9 billion of additional value for Air Canada pilots over the course of the deal.

Meanwhile, labour tension with cabin crew looms on the horizon. Air Canada is poised to kick off negotiations with the union representing more than 10,000 flight attendants this year before the contract expires on March 31.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:AC)

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Federal $500M bailout for Muskrat Falls power delays to keep N.S. rate hikes in check

Published

 on

 

HALIFAX – Ottawa is negotiating a $500-million bailout for Nova Scotia’s privately owned electric utility, saying the money will be used to prevent a big spike in electricity rates.

Federal Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson made the announcement today in Halifax, saying Nova Scotia Power Inc. needs the money to cover higher costs resulting from the delayed delivery of electricity from the Muskrat Falls hydroelectric plant in Labrador.

Wilkinson says that without the money, the subsidiary of Emera Inc. would have had to increase rates by 19 per cent over “the short term.”

Nova Scotia Power CEO Peter Gregg says the deal, once approved by the province’s energy regulator, will keep rate increases limited “to be around the rate of inflation,” as costs are spread over a number of years.

The utility helped pay for construction of an underwater transmission link between Newfoundland and Nova Scotia, but the Muskrat Falls project has not been consistent in delivering electricity over the past five years.

Those delays forced Nova Scotia Power to spend more on generating its own electricity.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

Published

 on

 

TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending