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Canada’s economy grows more than expected, dodging recession

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Stronger growth supports case for Bank of Canada to hold interest rates steady until June

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The Canadian economy has dodged a recession as gross domestic product edged up in the fourth quarter last year, primarily due to higher exports of crude oil and reduced imports, making it likely the Bank of Canada will stick to its plan of holding interest rates when it makes its next announcement on March 6.

Real GDP rose by an annualized one per cent for the three months ending Dec. 31, compared to the consensus of 0.8 per cent, following a 0.5 per cent decline in the third quarter, according to Statistics Canada. The agency had originally said GDP declined by an annualized 1.2 per cent in the third quarter.

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GDP rose for the third consecutive year since 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic led to a contraction, but at its slowest pace since 2016, not counting 2020. Advance information indicates real GDP rose 0.4 per cent in January, Statistics Canada said.

Not everything was relatively rosy. Final domestic demand, which is composed of expenditures on final consumption and gross fixed-capital formation, dropped 0.2 per cent in the fourth quarter, after a 0.2 per cent increase in the previous quarter.

“Growth appears to have been driven largely by an easing of previous supply constraints helping exports and car sales, rather than necessarily an improvement in domestic demand,” Andrew Grantham, an economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said.

He continues to predict the Bank of Canada’s first interest rate cut will take place in June.

TD Economics senior economist James Orlando said the economy “showed some life” in the final quarter with consumers, who had pared back on spending for much of the year, deciding to be busy “driving around in their new cars and filling shopping malls during the holiday season.”

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He said a return to growth in the fourth quarter after two quarters of “effectively no growth” was expected, but the economic narrative hasn’t changed: High interest rates are weighing on economic growth and GDP per capita has declined in five of the last six quarters.

“We think the wheels are in motion for this to come through the data in the coming months and have penciled in the first rate cut for June,” he said.

The increase in GDP was “too small” to prevent a sixth consecutive decline in the output on a per capita basis as population growth continues to surge higher, Royal Bank of Canada economist Nathan Janzen said.

Exports of goods and services rose 1.4 per cent in the fourth quarter after a 0.3 per cent drop in the third quarter. This was driven by a 6.2 per cent rise in crude oil and crude bitumen exports. Imports, however, declined by 0.4 per cent during the same period, after rising 0.3 per cent in the third quarter last year, due to lower imports of vehicles and their parts.

Household spending also increased 0.2 per cent in the fourth quarter after a 0.1 per cent drop in the previous quarter. However, investment in housing was down 0.4 per cent in the quarter, making the sixth decline in the past seven quarters, Statistics Canada said. Despite more activity in new construction and renovations, the resale market weakened, the agency said.

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Business investment declined for the sixth time over the past seven quarters, with investment in non-residential structures falling by three per cent. In addition, employee compensation rose 0.8 per cent for the quarter, which the agency said was the slowest growth rate since the second quarter of 2020.

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“The lower growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 reflected slower wage growth in services producing industries relative to the previous quarter, as well as declining wages in the goods-producing industries,” Statistics Canada said.

Corporate incomes fell but continued to grow, as they increased 2.9 per cent in the fourth quarter, after rising 3.4 per cent in the third quarter.

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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