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Canada's inflation rate tumbles to 2.9 per cent, back inside BoC's target range – The Globe and Mail

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A customer browses an aisle at a grocery store In Toronto.Cole Burston/The Canadian Press

Canada’s inflation rate fell far enough in January to place it within the Bank of Canada’s target range, surprising analysts and reigniting speculation about a potential interest-rate cut this spring.

The Consumer Price Index rose 2.9 per cent in January on an annual basis, down from 3.4 per cent in December, Statistics Canada said Tuesday in a report. Financial analysts were expecting a slight easing to 3.3 per cent.

With that result, the headline inflation rate has fallen back within the Bank of Canada’s target range of 1 per cent to 3 per cent, for only the second time since consumer prices began to flare up in 2021. (The central bank aims for 2 per cent, the midpoint of that range.) Inflation is also tracking lower than the bank’s estimate for this quarter.

After the inflation report, investors ramped up their bets that the Bank of Canada will start to lower interest rates in the first half of the year. Interest-rate swaps, which capture market expectations about monetary policy, suggest there is roughly a 50-50 chance the central bank will deliver a quarter-point cut in April. The odds are more heavily stacked in favour of that move occurring at the following rate decision, in June. The bank’s next decision is on March 6.

Opinion: We no longer believe inflation will come down anymore, and that’s dangerous

Any cut would be the first since the central bank began hiking its key interest rate nearly two years ago, as part of its strategy to cool the economy and slow price growth. The bank has paused its hikes in recent months as it waits to see whether inflation has moderated enough to allow it to bring interest rates back down.

“As we’ve said before, underlying inflation has been making more progress than the Bank of Canada has been willing to concede,” Tiago Figueiredo, a macro strategy associate at Desjardins Securities, said in a note to clients. “As a result, we continue to see the first of five rate cuts this year occurring in June, with risks tilted towards an easing cycle beginning earlier rather than later.”

The January inflation numbers were marked by a widespread easing of price pressures.

Seasonally adjusted consumer prices fell 0.1 per cent in January from December – the first monthly decline since the spring of 2020. Various core measures of inflation – which strip out volatile price movements – are slowing, too. For example, the Consumer Price Index excluding food and energy rose at a three-month annualized rate of 2.4 per cent, the weakest pace since April, 2021.

Grocery prices, a major source of concern for consumers and policy makers alike, rose at an annual pace of 3.4 per cent in January, down from 4.7 per cent in December. Statscan noted that the slowdown was broad-based. Prices for meat rose 2.8 per cent, dairy products by 1.5 per cent and fresh fruit by 1.9 per cent. In some cases – as with soup and bacon – prices fell over the past year.

Gas prices fell 4 per cent from a year ago, while on a monthly basis they dropped 0.9 per cent. Manitoba made a notable contribution to the national decline, Statscan said, owing to a temporary suspension of its provincial gas tax.

Consumers paid 24 per cent less for airfare in January compared with December. Slumps such as this are typical after the holiday period.

Meanwhile, inflation continues to be a pressing concern in the housing market. Shelter prices rose 6.2 per cent from a year earlier, picking up from December’s 6-per-cent pace. Rents accelerated to a 7.9-per-cent increase, from 7.7 per cent. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem recently stressed that monetary policy cannot solve the country’s housing affordability issues.

James Orlando, a senior economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, argued in a Tuesday report that the central bank shouldn’t allow high shelter inflation to affect its interest-rate policies.

“While we have been arguing for the Bank to begin looking through the shortcomings created by shelter inflation and instead focus on the health of the broad economy, it is clear from recent central bank communication that it isn’t ready to do so,” he wrote. “And the longer the BoC continues to look at inflation through its current lens, the longer Canadians will have to bear the weight of a heavily restrictive policy rate.”

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government has suffered in opinion polls as voters have felt the pinch of rising prices and higher borrowing costs. At a press conference in Vancouver, Mr. Trudeau called the decrease in the headline inflation rate “good news.”

“We are optimistic that the Bank of Canada will start bringing down interest rates some time this year, hopefully sooner rather than later,” he said.

The Bank of Canada’s preferred measures of core inflation rose at an average annual rate of 3.4 per cent in January, down from 3.6 per cent in December – a sign that underlying price pressures are subsiding, but remain in elevated territory.

“Overall, it appears that the sluggishness in consumer demand is finally impacting pricing in areas of more discretionary spending,” Andrew Grantham, a senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said in a client note. “That is a positive sign for the Bank of Canada, and will have financial markets pulling forward expectations for a first interest rate cut.”

At the Bank of Canada’s most recent interest-rate decision, in January, bank officials said they were shifting toward discussing how long to keep the bank’s key interest rate at its current level of 5 per cent. They also dialled back the threat of further rate hikes.

Also last month, the central bank projected average annual inflation of 3.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2024, although that could prove too high given Tuesday’s result. The bank expects a return to 2-per-cent inflation in 2025.

“January’s inflation print was a big positive shift in the right direction, but the Bank of Canada will need to see this trend continue before it will be comfortable pivoting to rate cuts,” Olivia Cross, North America economist at Capital Economics, said in a client note. “After all, we saw headline inflation fall below 3 per cent in June, but this was followed by a series of stickier inflation prints.”

With a report from Ian Bailey

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Business

A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite up more than 250 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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