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Canada's jobs recovery continues in July amid reopenings – BNN

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Canada’s labor market continued its recovery in July as health restrictions were lifted, but the gains were less than expected.

The country’s economy added 94,000 jobs last month, Statistics Canada reported Friday in Ottawa. Economists were predicting a jobs gain of 150,000. The unemployment rate fell to 7.5 per cent from 7.8 per cent in July.

The report signals the economic rebound is intact and shows companies are finding workers as pandemic restrictions vanish. The smaller-than-expected increase, though, could cast some doubt on the pace of hiring. The gains last month were largely in full-time private-sector employment, particularly among youth and women.

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The numbers show the economy has more than fully recouped losses from a third wave of the pandemic that swept through the country earlier this year. July’s increase follows a 231,000 jobs gain in June; the two months reversed the 275,000 jobs lost during lockdowns in April and May.

Of the three million jobs lost at the start of the crisis, 2.74 million have now been recovered.

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The Canadian dollar weakened following the report, down 0.2 per cent to $1.2528 per U.S. dollar at 9 a.m. in Toronto trading. Still, the Canadian dollar is one of only a handful of major currencies to post gains this year, reflecting a more aggressive paring back of monetary stimulus in Canada. That’s due in part to the country’s stronger jobs market recovery.

The Canadian jobs report coincided with the release on Friday of suprisingly strong U.S. payroll numbers, where 943,000 positions were added last month.
 

FAVORABLE COMPOSITION

Despite the miss, the results aren’t expected to undermine expectations the Bank of Canada will continue pulling back on stimulus, with interest rate hikes expected next year by some economists. That’s because the quality of the new jobs appear to be high.

“The composition is a little bit more favorable,” Dawn Desjardins, deputy chief economist of Royal Bank of Canada, said in an interview on BNN Bloomberg Television. “It may be a headline miss in terms of the numbers, but having more full-time jobs created is definitely a good sign for the economy and certainly keeps the momentum building.”

The data give Prime Minister Justin Trudeau some fodder to tout his record of managing the COVID-19 crisis ahead of an election that’s widely expected to be called for next month.

Last September, the prime minister promised to create one million jobs — an objective the country is very close to achieving. Trudeau is expected to call an election within weeks.

There are still plenty of worries, though, including a fresh wave of lockdowns amid the global spread of the delta variant.

According to the Bank of Canada, employment will need to surpass pre-pandemic levels before a complete recovery is declared, because population has grown since the start of the crisis.

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Pierre Poilievre is neither for nor against the Liberals' industrial strategy. Quite the opposite – The Globe and Mail

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Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre reads from last year’s budget as he rises during Question Period on March 29 in Ottawa.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press

You would think that a politician as hard-hitting as Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre would have something clear to say about the big initiatives that the federal government outlined in its budget.

But somehow the Leader of the Opposition can’t tell us whether he opposes the biggest thing in the Liberal budget.

He can’t say whether he is in favour of a massive, government-subsidized industrial strategy.

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We’re not talking here about some baroque measure no one saw coming. We are talking about the largest feature in the government’s new fiscal blueprint.

In Tuesday’s budget, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland outlined an enormous set of industrial subsidies for green technology that reduces emissions that will total $80-billion over the next decade.

This is an expenditure for industrial subsidies on a scale never before attempted in Canada. And we knew it was coming: The Liberal government signalled it was planning to respond to the huge subsidies in the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act. Ms. Freeland budgeted more new money for those subsidies over the next decade than for health care.

Most of that money is supposed to be spent five to 10 years from now, when there could well be another party in power, possibly under Mr. Poilievre. Companies making investment decisions this year will want to know if a potential prime minister is dead set against the whole idea. Canadians should want to know too.

But on Wednesday, Mr. Poilievre was neither for nor against. Quite the opposite.

Asked whether he is in favour of the hefty investment tax credits for things such as carbon capture and hydrogen, Mr. Poilievre said his Conservatives have been in favour of carbon capture for a long time.

So that’s a yes? Well, no, not exactly.

He said his Conservatives would “study what’s in the budget and we’re going to come up with our own election platform.” Apparently it will be a year or two before we know if Mr. Poilievre thinks that a massive program launched in the 2023 budget is a good step or a colossal waste of money.

Mr. Poilievre responded to those questions by talking about the long delays for approving projects like mines – which is a legitimate point but not an answer to the question of subsidies.

And then for a moment, he made it sound like he thinks the subsidies are an outrage. “I have no doubt that Justin Trudeau will stuff the pockets of foreign multinationals,” he said. That’s pretty biting, except for the fact that we’re not sure whether Mr. Poilievre is in favour of all that pocket-stuffing.

Certainly, no one should expect that the Conservatives would release all their policies in the platform now.

And of course there’s plenty of waffling in politics. On Wednesday, Mr. Trudeau dodged questions of whether his government will ever balance the budget, to avoid admitting it never will. Mr. Poilievre refused to say whether the Conservative government would cancel a proposed dental plan.

But in this case the government of the day is launching a major subsidy program that will cost billions of dollars a year and is supposed to be the cornerstone of a decade-long industrial strategy, and key to climate-change policy, too.

The Official Opposition can’t take a pass on that for two years and claim that its mission is holding the government to account.

It can endorse the idea, but quibble over the details. Or it can oppose the very notion of pouring megabucks into subsidies.

It is evidently an uncomfortable issue for Mr. Poilievre. He has spent a lot of his time in politics railing against corporate handouts. He couldn’t help using that language on Wednesday.

But those subsidies also include a lot of money for carbon capture and storage in the oil patch that Alberta’s United Conservative Premier Danielle Smith wants. Ontario’s Progressive Conservative Premier Doug Ford will be keen on the incentives for electricity and battery plants.

Yet there’s no way around it. This is the time when the issue is being decided, if only because the Liberals have tabled the budget with hulking piles of cash devoted to it. That will set Canada’s industrial policy on a course that is supposed to endure for a decade. An opposition leader should be able to tell us if he’s against it.

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As Canadians miss out on benefits, Ottawa promises automatic tax filing is on the way – BNN Bloomberg

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The Canada Revenue Agency will pilot a new automatic system next year to help vulnerable Canadians who don’t file their taxes get their benefits.

This week’s federal budget says the Canada Revenue Agency will also present a plan in 2024 to expand the service, following consultations with stakeholders and community organizations. 

The move toward automatic tax filing, first promised in the 2020 speech from the throne, is one of several budget measures the Liberals say are meant to help Canadians with the cost of living.

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Experts and advocates have called for automatic filing, noting many vulnerable Canadians miss out on benefits to which they are entitled.

Canadians are generally not required to file tax returns every year unless they owe money, but the federal government is increasingly relying on the Canada Revenue Agency to deliver income-tested benefits to individuals.

That includes Canada Child Benefit, as well as the recent top-up to the Canada Housing Benefit and the temporary doubling of the GST tax credit.

A 2020 report co-authored by Jennifer Robson, an associate professor in political management at Carleton University, estimates 10 to 12 per cent of Canadians don’t file their taxes.

Although there were non-filers across all income groups, they were most heavily concentrated in lower income brackets.

The report estimated the value of benefits lost to working-age non-filers was $1.7 billion in 2015.

The federal budget also said the Canada Revenue Agency will expand access to a service set up in 2018 that allows some Canadians with lower or fixed incomes to auto-file simple returns over the telephone.

The budget says that two million Canadians will be eligible for that service, called “File My Return,” by 2025, which is nearly three times the number of people who can use it now.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 30, 2023.

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U.S. weekly jobless claims rise by 7k to 198000, gold price climbs – Kitco NEWS

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Editor note Get all the essential market news and expert opinions in one place with our daily newsletter. Receive a comprehensive recap of the day’s top stories directly to your inbox. Sign up here!

(Kitco News) The initial weekly jobless claims rose by 7,000 to 198,000 the week to Saturday, surprising the markets with a bigger-than-expected increase.

Economists’ consensus calls projected the initial claims to advance to 196,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 191,000.

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The four-week moving average for new claims – often viewed as a more reliable measure of the labor market since it flattens week-to-week volatility – climbed by 2,000 to 198,250. The previous week’s four-week moving average was unrevised at 196,250, the U.S. Labor Department said on Thursday.

Continuing jobless claims, representing the number of people already receiving benefits, were at 1,689,000 during the week ending March 18, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 1,685,000. The previous week’s level was revised down by 9,000.

The four-week moving average was at 1,691,750, an increase of 10,000. And the previous week’s four-week moving average was revised down by 2,250 to 1,681,750.

Traders watch the jobless claims data very closely to gauge its impact on the Federal Reserve’s employment side of the monetary policy mandate.

Gold ticked up to daily highs and then gave up some of those gains, with June Comex gold futures last trading at $1,990.60 an ounce, up 0.31% on the day.

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]

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